Analysts look to the gold price history as a tool to make predictions about the yellow metal's direction.
A good place to start when examining the gold price history is the 1970s. Up until the early '70s, gold prices hardly fluctuated by more than a dollar or two.
But U.S. President Richard Nixon, who was in office from 1969-1974, decoupled the dollar from gold in 1971 due to various economic pressures.
Analysts look to the gold price history as a tool to make predictions about the yellow metal's direction.
A good place to start when examining the gold price history is the 1970s. Up until the early '70s, gold prices hardly fluctuated by more than a dollar or two.
But U.S. President Richard Nixon, who was in office from 1969-1974, decoupled the dollar from gold in 1971 due to various economic pressures.
And this had a major effect on where gold went after that…
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Gold and to a lesser extent silver got hammered pretty hard today (Friday) - leading many of our investors to write in and ask why gold prices are down so much this week.
Gold closed Friday at its lowest level since July 2011. In the last two days, gold was off about $70 and silver off about $1.60 at their worst points.
So what's going on?
Well, in the search for answers I can see a few reasons.
It started Tuesday, when UBS cut its average gold price forecast for 2013 to $1,740 from $1,900. UBS cited risks the U.S. Federal Reserve would end its current QE sooner than expected, a move into equities, low inflation, improving economic growth, and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Then Wednesday, the leaked Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes showed that several members believe the costs of the $85 billion monthly bond purchases outweigh the benefits. We're being led to believe that "many participants" think improving unemployment could justify slowing up on bond-buying "at some point over the next several meetings."
Remember that these are not minutes where members' comments are actually written down word-for-word (like they ought to), these are carefully crafted statements to influence opinion. The Fed is known to try to "manage expectations, so it wants it to look like bond-buying will end sooner than later.
But I, for one, don't buy it.
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If you want a lesson on how to manipulate gold prices, you need only look at what Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) has been doing over the past few months.
Goldman set the table by predicting a turn in gold prices back in December 2012, which no doubt contributed to the precious metal's 5% decline in the first two months of the year.
At the end of February, Goldman issued a research report that said the big Wall Street bank had soured on the yellow metal, and dropped its three-month target for gold prices from $1,825 an ounce to $1,615, its six-month forecast from $1,805 to $1,600, and its one-year outlook from $1,800 to $1,550.
Then, just yesterday (Wednesday), Goldman doubled down on its negative outlook for gold prices.
The bank's new targets for gold prices are $1,530 in three months, $1,490 in six months and $1,390 in one year.
The double whammy - two downgrades in two months - had its intended effect, as gold prices fell 2%, to $1,558.80, after Goldman released its report. It was the biggest single-day percentage drop for gold in nearly six months.
"If you've ever suspected gold prices are being manipulated, you're not alone - and you're right, they are," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald.
The proof is right in front of us.
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The savings-seizing shenanigans in Cyprus just reinforced the importance of having gold and gold stocks in your portfolio. An indeed, with gold at extreme lows, now's a great time to buy more. Frank Holmes explains.
Until recently, an entire class of investors that control a huge pool of money - more than $27 trillion worldwide - have almost entirely ignored gold.
But lately, this group has begun to show more interest in the yellow metal, a trend that ultimately will exert massive upward pressure on gold prices.
We're talking about pension funds, which typically have had little interest in gold.
But with more traditional investments like bonds at historic lows, many pension funds aren't getting the returns they need to fund future obligations.
And with central banks debasing most major currencies and risking higher inflation, pension fund managers almost have no choice but to consider adding gold.
It's already started in Japan, which has about $3.4 trillion in pension funds - second only to the U.S., which has about $20 trillion.
In response to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's pledge to spur inflation by printing more yen, Japanese hedge fund managers plan to double their gold holdings from about $500 million to $1.1 billion over the next two years, primarily by investing in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Itsuo Toshima, who represented the Tokyo office of World Gold Council for 23 years through 2011 and now advises Japanese pension fund managers, sees gold becoming a standard asset as inflation becomes more of a threat - with major consequences for gold prices.
"Pension money invested in bullion is "peanuts' at the moment," Toshima told Bloomberg News. "If 1% of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold market would explode."
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It's dipped to a six-month low, and investors are nervous. But as long as gold is attractive to both the fear trade and the love trade, hold on tight to your share of the yellow metal. Frank Holmes explains.
There are a lot of moving parts to the gold story so let's start with the biggest takeaway: Gold prices are facing only a temporary setback.
Longer-term, as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks begin to wind down quantitative easing and, more importantly, begin to ease interest rates back up to more "normal" levels, inflation should begin to kick in and drive gold up to new highs, making the yellow metal a great long-term investment.
First, though, let's tease apart the various factors that currently are driving the price of gold lower.
China remains a small player on the international gold scene, but that's about to change, and that's good news for those betting on higher gold prices.
You see, currently China's gold investors have few opportunities to play rising gold prices, which they want to do increasingly to hedge against risk and inflation. Most buy gold bars and notes to bet on higher gold prices.
But they will soon have more options.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission on Jan. 25 announced the country's rising gold demand required diversified investment instruments. It announced provisional guidelines for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been prepared for launch over the past few years and will be made available soon.
The CSRC said that the gold ETFs would be invested in the spot contract traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and up to 10% on other products.
In the future, the funds could be opened up to futures contracts.
"Later on, we will further open up the market and quicken the steps to integrate into the international market," Xie Duo of People's Bank of China said. "We should actively create conditions for the gold market to become integrated with the international gold market."
Here's how this news is bullish for gold prices.
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The recently publicized move by the German central bank to bring its gold home is sending a major message about trust in the United States.
The bank holds 45% of its 3,396 tons of gold in the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, and wants to reduce those holdings to 37%. It also plans to take back all of its 11% of holdings currently stored at the Banque de France in Paris.
The immediate reaction to the German central bank's decision to repatriate some of its gold was to assert that the Bundesbank no longer trusted overseas central banks to look after their gold.
The German Federal Court of Auditors (Bundesrechnungshof) has ordered the Bundesbank to audit its gold reserves "because stocks have never been checked for authenticity and weight."
Prior to that, the Bundesbank had simply relied upon written certification from the central banks where its offshore gold is stored that the correct amount of gold is actually in the vaults and is of the appropriate fineness.
What's more, samples of gold from the Fed and the Banque de France will be melted down and tested for fineness or quality.
Suppose Germany's gold isn't all it is supposed to be?
The "full faith and credit" of the United States would certainly be called into question.
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