The recent slide in gold prices
has left investors puzzled over why the metal is not acting in the way it was intended: a safe haven from economic uncertainty.
But as Martin Grubb, managing director of investment for the World Gold Council, explained in a recent commentary for MarketWatch
, it is not all that unusual for gold to experience a delayed reaction to macroeconomic events.
That's because gold is one of the very few assets that retains its value during tumultuous economic times. It is often the go-to holding investors sell when they need to raise cash, want liquidity, or are faced with margin calls. So events can trigger a gold sell-off and knock down prices before sending them soaring.
Grubb referenced Black Monday 1987 as a perfect example. The infamous day rocked markets the world over. Many feared it was a "financial Armageddon" as billions of dollars were erased from stock prices during the month of October.
Gold, instead of rising as market participants looked for safe haven assets, dropped as it was sold to raise cash to bolster accounts. It hit as low as $390 in the months that followed before rising to $484 by the end of 1988.
An even more extreme example of gold's liquidity role was the 1997-1998 Asian currency crisis. The Korean won was unacceptable in currency markets, so the Korean government stepped in and bought gold from locals in exchange for interest-bearing won-denominated bonds.
The Korean government sold the 250 tonnes of gold it received in the international market and was able to service its debt with the sales.
A more recent example of gold's initial sell off in a financial crisis is the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008. Despite the bank's failure marking the credit crunch kick off, gold initially fell for a couple months as investors sold it for cash. Then it started a bull run that ran the price up 156% in three years.
Grubb wrote that we are currently in the infancy stage of a new crisis and gold's legendary behavioral pattern is repeating itself.
The precious metal is being liquidated to meet margin calls. In addition, it is believed the yellow metal is being lent into markets to provide ailing European banks with much needed liquidity.
"As a result, gold is not yet reacting to the worsening euro zone news and its current behavior is much like its behavior prior to and shortly after the Lehman bankruptcy," Grubb wrote.
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