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What's Next for the Price of Oil After This Weekend's Saudi Attack
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Article Index

  • Why Oil Prices Plummeted 4% Today
  • Here's My Full 2019 Crude Oil Price Forecast (and the Best Way to Profit)
  • How We've Been Profiting on Oil's Wild Moves
  • The Shocking Role of Iranian Sanctions in Crude Oil's Plunge
  • My Favorite Way to Tap the Double-Digit Profit Pipeline in Oil & Gas
  • Here's Where Oil Prices Are Headed (and Why There's No Stopping Them)
  • Double Your Money Now That the United States Is the World's Largest Oil Producer
  • This Oil Pipeline Stock Could Jump 116% Thanks to Booming Production
  • One of My Favorite Drillers Is Set to "Strike It Rich" All Over Again
  • $100 Crude Oil? It Could Happen Sooner Than You Think
  • Why I Know Crude Oil Prices Have Much Further to Climb
  • The One Reason Oil Has Nowhere to Go but Down
  • The Three Global Crises Will Impact Every Dollar You Make
  • You Can Easily Become an Oil "Wildcatter" in Your Own Right
  • Iran's President Is in Jeopardy; Here's How It Will Affect Your Wallet
  • This "Triple Play" Is Key to Profiting from Energy's Tense "New Normal"
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What's Next for the Price of Oil After This Weekend's Saudi Attack

By Daniel Smoot, Associate Editor, Money Morning - September 16, 2019

Saudi Arabia just experienced the biggest oil disruption on record.

In fact, an attack on its biggest facility has cut its production by 5.7 million barrels a day.

Here’s how it’ll impact the price of oil...

As Oil Prices Fall, Here's What You Need to Do Now

By Garrett Baldwin, Executive Producer, Money Morning - July 7, 2019

Only a day after markets cheered the U.S.-China trade truce, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap $4 billion in tariffs on goods flowing out of the EU, causing oil prices to plunge this past Tuesday.

Since you can’t really trust the chatter about oil prices heading higher in the third quarter, Garrett’s going to show you how to make money on this trend…

Read more...

Oil Prices Should Be Going Up - Here's Why They're Not

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI - May 30, 2019

As I write this, oil prices are retreating (again) and approaching two-month lows. This decline is underway despite some rather heavy supply pressures that should be moving it up.

Thus, the question is: Why?

The overall dynamics would seem to indicate higher prices:

Things like the reimposition of U.S. sanctions against Iran; a continuing collapse in Venezuela; widening impact from a festering civil war in Libya; a Russian export suspension mess on the world's largest pipeline remaining unresolved; an OPEC+ emphasis on production restraint; extraction problems in Mexico; and even discount pricing spreads in Canada have moved supply concerns to the front burner.

And that's just the warm-up.

Now, all this needs to be put in perspective...

Why Oil Prices Plummeted 4% Today

By Daniel Smoot, Associate Editor, Money Morning - May 13, 2019

The oil industry saw a brief rally this morning before tumbling down again. In fact, it

skyrocketed 2.6% before plummeting another 4%.

Here's why oil prices are so volatile today...

What You Need to Know About the Oil Price Comeback

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI - April 4, 2019

The price of crude oil is renewing an upward march.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. It's quite the breath of fresh air after the collapse we experienced at the end of last year.

As of trading close yesterday (2:30 PM for oil in New York), West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark crude rate written in New York, was up another 1.6% for the day, 5.3% for the week, and 10.6% for the month.

Year to date (YTD), WTI is up a hefty 37.8%.

Meanwhile, Brent, the more widely used global benchmark set daily in London, is better by .5%, 2,4%, and 5.4%, respectively, with a YTD gain of 28.9%.

Of interest now is the Brent-WTI spread, the difference between the two benchmark figures...

Here's My Full 2019 Crude Oil Price Forecast (and the Best Way to Profit)

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI - January 9, 2019

The final quarter of 2018 has certainly been "historic." Then again, so was RMS Titanic's last night above water.

Both primary crude benchmarks posted highs on Oct. 3, but through close of trade on Dec. 27, they've been in marked retreat. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the standard for futures contracts set in New York, has lost 41.6%, while Brent, the more widely used global yardstick set daily in London, has shed 39.8%.

Those figures even include a major single-session advance of 8% recorded on Dec. 26.

Of course, oil has been moving in tandem with a collapsing broader stock market. Weakness and volatility have been boosted by (largely misplaced) angst involving a credit inversion, where shorter-term maturities begin offering higher yields than paper further down on the curve.

A yield inversion is sometimes regarded as a precursor to a recession, although I also regard this fear as quite overblown.

Why? It's simple: The market has had more inversions not leading to recessions than it has had those resulting in one. Besides, in the unlikely event a recession hits this time around, it usually takes at least 18 months for any tangible indicators to form. Prior to that, it's all idle speculation, guesswork, and worry.

And as if to put a point on it, that worrisome inversion has quietly corrected over the past few weeks.

At the end of each year, there is a combination of loss-taking for tax purposes, institutional investors balancing and re-balancing portfolios, and lowered liquidity.

This is nothing new. This year, however, all three factors have collided in a profoundly uncertain environment fueled by a government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, concerns over U.S. foreign policy consistency, a U.S.-Chinese trade war, and highly suspicious computer-buying programs.

So it's easy to see why crude prices seem stuck in the basement - stock prices, too, for that matter.

But as I'm about to show you, the year ahead looks much brighter than the current situation suggests...

How We've Been Profiting on Oil's Wild Moves

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI - December 31, 2018

How We've Been Profiting on Oil's Wild Moves
Crude's whipsaw "roller-coaster ride" won't last forever

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Money Morning

Government shutdowns, geopolitical angst, protracted instability inside the Beltway, and outright market manipulation are combining to make this a profoundly volatile, unsettling time.

On Wednesday, for instance, both West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark crude rate set in New York, and Brent, the more widely used oil trading standard set in London, spiked ferociously - more than for any one session in well over a decade. WTI ended trading up by 8.7%; Brent by 8%.

With these spikes coming after historic price declines, everyone in the media is now looking for the oil price "floor" that can enable steadier upward moves.

I don't expect that floor to be a factor until into 2019. Year-end tax sales, low holiday volume, and institutional portfolio adjustments mean any floor, if it shows up, probably won't register until January.

And yet, these kinds of violent swings can be remarkably profitable. Late last week, my Energy Inner Circle readers following along got the chance to close out a 1,000% profit on a Brent "straddle" - a call and a put expiring on the same date at different strike prices - that saw us play the "up" and the "down."

There are three things in play right now obscuring the "floor" and keeping crude prices untamable, but that will ultimately give way to a much smoother, upward price trend...

All's Fair in War and Oil

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI - December 18, 2018

They say all's fair in love and war.

I say all's fair in war and oil.

When it comes to digging for "black gold," any stretch of land, water, or ice is fair game.

You can go from the deserts of Saudi Arabia to the dry dust of West Texas to the waters of the coastline to find this vital fuel...

Not to mention the cold desert of the Arctic.

It's long been known that the Arctic holds oil frozen under its icy top layer, and getting to it is quite the challenge.

More so, even, than extracting oil out of the waters of the ocean.

The Arctic region encompasses 19 geological basins – only half of which have been actually explored.

In 2008, the United States Geological Survey estimated that there are 90 billion barrels of undiscovered, recoverable oil in 25 identified areas in the Arctic – 13% of all the undiscovered oil in the world.

Now, despite the challenges of the region, many nations around the world are determined to take control of this land and its abundant natural resources.

Which leads to some increasing tension, adding to the existing conflict I've discussed many times.

The Arctic situation has remained fairly stagnant for the last several years, at least compared to other areas of oil exploration.

But a move by one of America's energy rivals has brought it back onto the map of world tensions...

The Shocking Role of Iranian Sanctions in Crude Oil's Plunge

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI - November 15, 2018

The collapse in oil prices has now reached historic levels.

Tuesday's 7% plunge in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - the largest slump in more than 30 years of futures contracts - marked the 12th consecutive daily loss for the New York benchmark. Before rebounding slightly yesterday, crude had been down more than 22% in less than a month.

Now, we've spoken many times before about the numerous reasons why crude prices can plunge: artificial manipulation from short sellers and institutional monkeyshines, geopolitical tensions, distortions in supply and demand, even outright oversupply - we've seen it all before. 

In this present case, some of this current decline is warranted, given the market's overestimation of Iranian sanction impacts and, to a far lesser extent, some weakening in underlying fundamentals.

But to be sure, the leading cause of the plunge has been a combination of what I have called the "lemming fixation" (a penchant for jumping off the cliff en masse) and some outright market manipulation.

I'll have more to say on this shortly, in a more extensive analysis my team and I are preparing right now.

But it's the completely counterintuitive - yet entirely predictable - effect of the recently re-imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic that I want to explore today...

My Favorite Way to Tap the Double-Digit Profit Pipeline in Oil & Gas

By Chris Johnson, Quantitative Specialist, Money Morning - September 28, 2018

With oil prices nearly 12% higher than they were a year ago, our Chris Johnson's Best in Breed system has identified a couple XOP components that will put money into you pocket...

Read More…

Here's Where Oil Prices Are Headed (and Why There's No Stopping Them)

By Cooper Creagan, Associate Editor, Money Morning - September 24, 2018

Saudi Arabia isn't budging on oil prices.

In fact, they couldn't bring oil prices lower even if they wanted to.

Here's where oil prices are headed next...

Double Your Money Now That the United States Is the World's Largest Oil Producer

By Alexander Bird, Associate Editor, Money Morning - September 20, 2018

oil stock

For the last 45 years, Russia and Saudi Arabia have dominated global oil production. However, U.S. production is roaring back - and rewriting the international balance in the process.

Last week, the U.S. Energy Department announced that the United State surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest oil producer for the first time since 1973.

America's stunning rise to the top of the production field has fostered the next catalyst to generate a triple-digit return for investors.

This Oil Pipeline Stock Could Jump 116% Thanks to Booming Production

By Alexander Bird, Associate Editor, Money Morning - September 7, 2018

After years of subpar performance, North American Oil Production is back.

According to a report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration last week, U.S. oil production rose to 10.7 million barrels a day in June.

This is the latest jump in what has turned into a two-year rally for a beleaguered North American oil industry.

And it shows no signs of letting up - June's numbers put the U.S. on track to reach a record 11 million barrels a day before the end of the year.

One of My Favorite Drillers Is Set to "Strike It Rich" All Over Again

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI - September 5, 2018

The Delaware Basin in arid western Texas and southern New Mexico used to be a good deal more inviting than it is today.

In fact, around 300 million years ago, when the region was south of the Equator, the area was a lush, tropical reef teeming with Permian life, covered by the warm Delaware Sea, which was part of the ancient Panthalassa Ocean.

Nowadays, the fossilized remains of that reef are exposed in the hot desert air, and the once-aquatic landscape has given way to scrub and the national parklands of Carlsbad Caverns and the Guadalupe Mountains.

The area is also known for its vast, thick deposits of limestone...

... and shale. Virtually endless expanses of oil-rich shale - wellspring of the second American energy revolution.

And one company is in the perfect position to reap the rewards of this ancient treasure...

$100 Crude Oil? It Could Happen Sooner Than You Think

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI - August 12, 2018

The two major global crude oil benchmarks - West Texas Intermediate and Brent - both saw solid gains this week.

Despite the pundits' skepticism, our Dr. Kent Moors remains bullish on both benchmark prices and doesn't think we're too far off from seeing triple digit prices...

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