investing tips
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Are Gold Prices Near a Bottom?
It's been a tumultuous couple of months for the yellow metal, which has investors asking: Are gold prices near a bottom?
There's hope this price plunge is ending.
Year-to-date, gold is lower by 17%. But after seven trading sessions where gold prices slumped, on Monday June gold futures gained 1.4%, or $19.40, to $1,384.10. Contract prices bounced as much as 2.4% after sliding 2.1%.
Now technical analysis points to a rebound in the yellow metal to $1,500 in June, following the "double bottom" hit Monday.
A double bottom involves three moves: a drop, a rebound, and another drop to the previous low. Chart watchers deem the pattern as bullish. A classic double bottom reversal typically marks an intermediate or long term change in trend.
"This shows that gold is probably ready to climb," Matthew Schilling, a commodity broker at Chicago based R.J. O'Brien told Bloomberg News. "The reversal was proof that we have found a bottom."
In just 10 minutes Monday, in the wake of gold's rally, holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold soared by $1.7 billion.
Fueling the buying were comments from Moody's that a downgrade of U.S. debt is likely if the government fails to get its finances in order in 2013.
To get more info, we asked Morning Morning Global Resource Specialist Peter Krauth if he thought a gold-price bottom was near.
"I thing gold is somewhat oversold," Krauth said. "Yesterday's price action, when gold shot up by about $40 within four hours seems to reflect the thinking that it's due for a bounce."
Krauth said this year's gold price correction was expected.
"After a 12-year bull market with no true correction like that in 1974-1976 time frame, one more is due. I would not be surprised to see gold eventually correct a bit further before making a final bottom.
"That being said, if it were to turn up and stay above $1,550, then it's likely this correction would be over," he continued.
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Why Gold Prices Are Going Down
Gold investors are just not feeling the love, once again left to wonder why gold prices are going down.
The yellow metal dipped again Thursday, with gold for June delivery ending down $10 at $1,386.10 an ounce. It was the sixth consecutive trading day of declines and marked a four-week low for the metal.
With equity markets continuing to log record highs, and economic data showing some signs of improvement, safe haven gold looks nothing like its moniker.
Fueling gold's recent rout is not one thing; it's a combination of things.
Here's why gold prices are going down this week.
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Energy Among the Best Investments from Ira Sohn Conference
There was definite energy spin this week at the 18th Ira Sohn Investment Conference at New York's Lincoln Center. In fact, at this an annual gathering of some of the world's influential money managers and investors, energy was applauded as one of the best investments to make now.
Some 3,000 guests paid as much as $100,000 (proceeds benefit pediatric cancer resesarch) to hear what 17 of Wall Street's lucrative members had to say about the stock market. Each had some 15 minutes to share their picks, pans and opinion.
Clearly, energy was a favorite, as Barron's outlined in its Ira Sohn coverage this week.
Here's a roundup of what these money managers consider to be the best investments in the industry.
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How to Invest in E-Cigs: The Cigarette of the 21st Century
They look like cigarettes, feel like cigarettes, taste like cigarettes - and, smokers will tell you - satisfy the craving for a smoke.
But electronic cigarettes, or e-cigs, don't have any of the offensive smoke that's so harmful to health. Instead, they feature an odorless vapor in which nicotine is delivered to the user. And they're sometimes allowed in public places where cigarettes are banned.
Studies show e-cigs make smoking healthier for smokers and those around them, while also helping smokers quit.
Plus, e-cigs cost about half as much as regular cigarettes.
Big tobacco continues to place bets that electronic cigarettes can keep the tobacco industry and its annual sales north of $750 billion and growing.
Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), the world's biggest tobacco company and parent company of Philip Morris USA, is the last of the three major U.S. tobacco firms to get into the e-cigs game.
"There is no denying that adult tobacco consumers have shown interest in it," Marty Barrington, Altria's CEO, told investors during an earnings conference call last week.
Thanks to increased health awareness, as well as the introduction of several taxes which have led to the price of packs more than tripling in some cities, cigarette sales began declining over15 years ago and continue to do so, falling 6.2% in the first quarter of 2013.
Even though e-cigs were introduced almost 10 years ago, they are just starting to take off. Sales in the U.S. totaled $500 million in 2012 and are expected to double to $1 billion in 2013.
And a recent study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that 21% of adults who smoke regular cigarettes had used e-cigs in 2011, up from 10% in 2010.
So, now that e-cigs are growing more popular, what's the best way to invest in them?
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The 10 Secrets of Successful Investing
For Sir John Marks Templeton, the road not taken really did make all the difference in the world.
A true contrarian, the legendary investor became a billionaire by "avoiding the herd".
He bought low, sold high, and was always working against the grains of extreme bullish and bearish sentiment.
In fact, it is when the streets were the bloodiest that Templeton became the most eager to invest.
It was at these moments of what Templeton called "points of maximum pessimism" that he began to wade in snapping up rock bottom bargains along the way..
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Jim Rogers Exclusive: Once Gold Bottoms, We're Looking at "A Multi-Year Bull Market"
Gold soared 650% from August 1999 to August 2011.
But it's down 24% from the $1,885 peak and in recent days has whipsawed gold investors in a way they haven't experienced in 30 years.
The bear market has gold bugs reaching for the Dramamine. But we reached for the telephone instead and dialed Singapore - and legendary investment guru Jim Rogers.
Many of Wall Street's biggest investment banks are calling for additional blood-letting - meaning gold prices have a lot more room to fall. But in his usual contrarian manner, Rogers dismissed the consensus.
Indeed, the former hedge-fund manager and best-selling author believes this is a badly needed - even healthy - price correction.
And that will set the stage for a new bull market in gold - and a run to record prices that are sure to come in an era of cheap-money policies by the world's central banks, Rogers told Money Morning during an exclusive interview.
"Gold was setting us up for some kind of correction," Rogers said in a Sunday night telephone interview from his home. "Gold needed a correction - it still needs a correction - and I hope this is the proper correction which gold needs. Then gold - somewhere along the way - will make a bottom and we can all join in the bull market as [it] goes higher and higher."
And make no mistake: The shiny metal is going higher - much higher.
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Is Now the Time to Buy Gold and Silver?
Wondering if now's the time to buy gold and silver? Wonder no more. Let me explain.
As a collector of both precious metals, like many, I planned on loading up in the wake of recent price declines. But guess what? My usual dealers were out of gold and silver.
Thanks to the selloff, a buying frenzy for bullion has crashed websites, jammed phone lines and depleted inventory.
"Our website was overloaded for the first time ever Friday and Monday. Every phone line was lit up. We did seven times our normal volume," Jake Haugen, VP of sales for Texas-based Provident Metals, told Money Morning.
You see, with gold on track to log its fourth weekly decline and silver headed for the worst week in about 19 months, bargain hunting abounded.
Declines in gold and silver prices began last Thursday and accelerated Monday when gold plunged $140.40, or 9.4%, to $1,360.90 an ounce, marking its biggest one-day decline in 30 years. Since its 2011 high of nearly $1,900 an ounce, gold has tumbled 28%.
Silver slumped $2.97, or 11.3%, Monday to $23.36 an ounce, well off its 1980 record high of $49.45.
As recently as last year, investors like me were paying more than $1,700 per ounce for gold and $35 per ounce for silver.
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Why the "Smart Money" in Japan is Investing in Gold
Some Japanese investors were thrilled as gold prices swooned this week, because they got a chance at investing in gold at a bargain price.
Tokuriki Honten Co., the country's second-largest gold retailer, reported Tuesday that Japanese investors doubled their gold purchases this week from the week before.
And Reuters reported how 63-year-old Yujiro Yamashita traveled to Tokyo's Ginza district to buy gold for the first time in 20 years.
Why?
It's thanks to fears stemming from Japan's new monetary easing, known as "Abenomics."
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If You're Worried About Gold Prices, You Need to Read This
When stocks fall by 20% or more from their peak, it's labeled as a "bear market."
With gold prices down 26% from their record close back in August 2011, the "yellow metal" has entered a bear market of its own.
It took an especially ugly day on Monday to get us to that point.
Two days ago, gold prices plunged as much as 9.7% - the biggest decline since 1980 - and continued a sell-off that saw the yellow metal fall by 4.7% last week, including a 4.1% drop on Friday.
The metal has now fallen 26% from its Aug. 22, 2011 settlement record of $1,888.70.
To get some expert insights on this sell-off, I telephoned Peter Krauth, our resident natural resources expert and editor of our Real Asset Returns research service. Peter based himself in Canada to be closer to the miners and natural-resources companies he covers for his subscribers.
I asked Peter for insights on the following three questions:
