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The Holiday Gravy Train: How Far This Market Rally Could Really Go

By , Money Morning -

The markets are seeing all-time highs, and they're giving no signs of slowing down.

In fact, D.R Barton joined Fox Business Network to give the "skinny" on the stock market rally... and he's promising even more growth.

Backed by more than four centuries of data, here's what you can expect in the months to come...

Click here to watch, and see just how far the resurgence could go...

It's Official: Markets Have Never Been So Tight

By , Technical Trading Specialist, Money Morning • @DRBarton_Stocks -

markets

Investors and traders could be forgiven for calling this market downright boring, but the truth is, for technical guys like me, we're living through an unprecedented, historic moment.

You see, I looked all the way back to the Camelot days of John F. Kennedy nearly 55 years ago and failed to find another instance of range-bound, "tight" markets enduring for so long.

There are some serious implications in this record low volatility, but before I jump into what this means for investors, let me show you just how strange these persistent doldrums look on my charts…

The Three Things That Could Move This Strange "Go-Nowhere" Market

By , Technical Trading Specialist, Money Morning • @DRBarton_Stocks -

The mid-July, post Brexit run-up has given way to a mild pullback and... wait for it... another sideways box.

For more than two weeks, the S&P 500 has been stuck in an amazing, maddening range of less than 1%.

This is an almost unheard-of level of inaction.

In fact, I went back through 10 years of data and could not find any other occurrences of a two-week range that was this tight.

This is really strange. But the good news is, it can't last.

Here's what I think will happen...

Research Points to Steady Market Highs, but I'm Not Convinced

By , Technical Trading Specialist, Money Morning • @DRBarton_Stocks -

dow jones

The market's strength continued last week, with new all-time highs made in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500.

From a technical perspective, that's significant - but more for what it doesn't prove.

You see, through Wednesday, the Dow had made higher closes on nine straight days for just the seventh time in the last 36 years.

According to Nautilus Investment Research, the six months following each string of nine successive up closes in the Dow showed an average gain of 10.4% - with each of the six showing positive results (the smallest gain was 4.7%).

But here's the problem with that: First, this a very small sample size, so while this represents an interesting trend, it's a mistake to take this as conclusive proof. Second, with the U.S. election season vitriol blazing away, and global economic uncertainty abounding, you should take this quantitative analysis with a grain of salt.

Despite the strength of the post-Brexit "march to new all-time highs," the speed of the rise has slowed considerably, and the pullback we saw in yesterday's trading confirms that.

Here's what to do about it...

How to Profit in This "Boxed" Market

By , Technical Trading Specialist, Money Morning • @DRBarton_Stocks -

stocks to buy this week

The market is sending us decidedly mixed signals right now. We've had some welcome upward moves lately, notwithstanding a little halfhearted profit-taking yesterday.

Analysts all have different explanations for the buoyant markets - oil prices, the strong dollar, an uptick in dealmaking, and now even surging new home sales. Those are all to the good, but I think they're overestimating the importance of those factors.

Don't get me wrong - it's OK to get excited about the rally, because there are some constructive technical reasons to like it. Critically, lots of stocks in most sectors have come along for the ride.

But here's where those mixed signals I was talking about come in. The welcome upward moves just haven't been able to get the markets out of the "box" they've been stuck in for the past eight weeks or so. And, as you'll see, there's still a great deal of uncertainty about one sector in particular.

So I'm going to show you what my technical analysis reveals about how we can get "out" of the box, and where we'll likely land when we get there.

And then I'll recommend some profit plays to make right now...

Here's What I Told the World's Smartest Investors Last Week

By , Global Credit Strategist, Money Morning • @MichaelELewitt -

smartest investors

The market has an admirable ability to completely disregard reality. Just look at the S&P 500's 2.3% gain last week.

We don't have that luxury, so I spent the last week grappling with it.

You see, I spoke on two panels at John Mauldin's Strategic Investment Conference 2016 in Dallas last week, each discussing the credit markets. Some of the best minds in the investment world were there, giving their views: David Rosenberg, Mark Yusko, Lacy Hunt, Charles Gave, Dr. Pippa Malmgren, David Zervos, Grant Williams, Niall Ferguson, Dr. Gary Shilling, Jim Grant, and of course our distinguished host himself, John Mauldin.

Now, like me, none of these individuals is a "consensus thinker" - each of them brings unique, out-of-the-box insights into markets that are infinitely more valuable than what is available in the mainstream financial press.

The food and entertainment at the Mauldin conference were wonderful. The outlook, considerably less so.

So today I'm going to tell you exactly what's got us so worried.

Then I'm going to give you the same investment recommendation and the same warning I gave the conference: Buy this before the Fed blows the wheels off the economy...

Here's My Favorite Company to Own for This Week's Market

By , Technical Trading Specialist, Money Morning • @DRBarton_Stocks -

best companies to own

Last week the markets were on a teeter-totter - the same kind you saw on the playground as a kid. You were either going up or going down.

Now, picture that someone else intervened in your "ride" by pushing on one side or the other. That person has now directly influenced whether you went up or down.

With that image in mind, we can see what's happening in the markets right now.

What is pushing prices up right now are expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to be "accommodative" and avoid raising interest rates.

This faith in the actions of central banks has put a mental "safety net" under the market for many traders and investors.

But that might not be a good thing this month. Here's why...

The Markets Are Extraordinarily Volatile, Here's What to Do

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report -

The markets swung more than 1,000 points in each direction over the course of trading yesterday. The chaos started in Asia and spread to the United States as the day went on.

That the markets plunged that far in the first place is a sure sign that panic is definitely setting in. I'd be lying if I said I didn't feel the angst just like you do. You're not alone.

So today, let's talk about how you do that and, as usual, take a quick look at three specific investments you can put to work immediately if the U.S. markets fall further or if China's markets have not yet bottomed.

Here's how to protect yourself from a market correction - and make a profit when everybody is losing...

Five Winners in the Stock Market Today

By , Money Morning -

It appears the stock market is headed for its fifth straight negative day as the markets opened lower on continued global concerns.

Any optimistic sentiments from Europe's recent summit and bailouts have passed, as Germany still is not committed to measures in the agreements.

After Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy announced surprisingly harsher austerity plans for Spain, there were riots in Madrid where more than 70 people were injured.

The stock market wasn't quite as violent, but after the U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes revealed no signs of QE3, the markets took a hit before finishing the day slightly higher. Today the market is still reeling as all three major indexes opened well in the red.

Even news of the lowest number of initial unemployment claims filed since March of 2008 could not lift the market. The Labor Department announced that initial claims seasonally adjusted came in at 350,000, down 26,000 from the previous week. Analysts had expected on average between 355,000 to 395,000 claims to be filed.

Those numbers may not be reliable, as many economists say the claims are lower due to automakers choosing to keep their plants open throughout the summer.

Typically many auto plants close for two weeks in the summer and lay off workers temporarily as the plants are prepped for new models. With higher demand this year many plants have remained open through July.

"It seems like the Labor Department is pretty adamant that this is more of a wonky seasonal adjustment than something we need to put too much stock in," Michael Hanson, U.S. economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch told Reuters. "The underlying trend in claims is probably still in the 370,000 range."

Those numbers are also low due to the fact that they are gathered from the holiday-shortened 4th of July week.

Even with the markets' slide today, there are still winners to be found. Here are five of the best performing stocks today:

Merck and Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) announced it received favorable results for its latest experimental osteoporosis drug, odancatib, and ended trials early because it worked so well. The drug is supposed to prevent bone fractures in women with osteoporosis and has been in testing since 2007.

Merck stock is up almost 4.5% as of noon.

To continue reading, please click here...

Stock Market Today: Is This the End for RIMM?

By , Money Morning -

The stock market today is rallying after positive news from Europe and the surprising 5-4 affirmation of Obamacare, or the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as it is formally known as.

Yesterday the markets opened almost 1% in the red and were sent down even further after the Supreme Court's ruling. The ruling was a surprise, but the fact that the markets acted so volatile was certainly not.

The markets did rally at the end of the day on positive news from Europe and that momentum has carried over to today.

The surprising news out of the European Union summit was the announcement yesterday from European Union President Herman Van Rompuy that European leaders have agreed to spend 120 billion euros ($149 billion) to stimulate growth and create jobs.

The plan includes a 10 billion-euro capital increase for the European Investment Bank (EIB) as a centerpiece of the long-term growth plan, which includes infrastructure financing, tax-policy pledges and more focused use of EU funding.

"The growth agenda is a sign of our unrelenting commitment," EU President Herman Van Rompuy said in a press conference in Brussels on the first day of a two-day summit. "It brings together all concrete measures that we will swiftly take."

To continue reading, please click here...

The Markets Are a Stacked Deck in a Rigged Game…But I Can Teach You How to Win

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning • @ShahGilani_TW -

The markets are broken.

And what has to be done to fix them likely won't get done. That's because the folks capable of fixing them are actually captives of the folks who like them the way they are.

That's the bad news.

The good news is, if you understand what's wrong and who's responsible, you can actually make a lot of money playing the game the way it's been set up.

Let me explain.

First of all, what's happened isn't by some grand design. There is no great conspiracy to screw the public. (Not this time.) Rather, incremental changes in various corners of the capital markets manifested innumerable unintended consequences.

The net result is this: Our capital markets aren't functioning for the greater good of the economy and the nation. And the public is getting screwed. But you knew that.

The markets have become a kind of stacked deck in a rigged card game.

A game being played by a bunch of whispering pros against mostly deaf, dumb, and blind amateurs (yeah, I'm taking about too many people you know) in a shady casino overseen by pit bosses who work for the house - which is owned by the pros who set up the game in the first place.

I'm not going to break down what the incremental changes were that got us here. I've done that over innumerable articles I've written for, Forbes, Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch and right here.

This isn't about how we got here. This is about proving where we are now by means of a kind of grand supposition that hopefully is going to open your eyes. It's probably going to scare the you-know-what out of you.

Earlier I said the public is getting screwed, but you knew that.

How do I know that you know the public is getting screwed? Most people are out of the market. They are either on the sidelines or out of the game for good. They know the markets are a casino, and most people have come to realize that they have no idea what the game is, let alone how to play it.

And that, children, is the unhappy ending.

Precisely because the public is so leery of losing their shirts and knickers in the strip poker club, investing is a thing of the past.

Long-term investing is dead. Long live short-term trading.

To continue reading, please click here...

The Case for Spitting into the Wind (At Least for Now)

By , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning • @ShahGilani_TW -

You've heard the expression "You don't spit into the wind," haven't you?

Well, it's true when it comes to trading and investing, too. You keep the wind at your back, and you don't give up easy profits by bucking the trend.

That's all well and good, so long as the wind is coming from a discernible direction. I prefer a warm southwest breeze myself. That's why I live where I live (in Miami).

But we have no control over the many ill winds that blow over our investing horizons.

The best we can do is stay aware of subtle shifts in directional changes, and watch out they don't strengthen into hurricane-force monsters.

I've been cautiously (too cautious, I admit) bullish since October, and I remain optimistic that stocks have enough momentum to try and push through important psychological barriers - such as 13,000 on the Dow, 1,375 and 1,400 on the S&P 500, and 3,000 on Nasdaq.

That doesn't mean we won't see a correction first. Or that last Tuesday wasn't a tiny correction in and of itself.

But 30 years of hardcore trading, and catching every major move in that long time span (no, I hardly ever pick the exact top or bottom, but I have come close) has taught me to go with my gut, to know when I "blink" that it means something.

And lately, I'm starting to "blink" more and more...

I'm getting the feeling that something's wrong, and, somewhere, the eye of a terrible storm could be forming. There's nothing out there that I've read (and I read a lot), or heard, or come across in any research, either quantitative or fundamental, that articulates what this nagging feeling is that's hanging over markets.

So, it looks like I'll have to be the one to put it out there.

But first let me be clear. I'm not spitting into the wind here. I'm still going with the path of least resistance.

What I am doing is presenting the backdrop of what people have lost sight of as they look front and center on the investing stage.

Am I saying the eye of a hurricane is forming? No. I'm saying it already has formed.

I'm saying keep buying cautiously and keep raising your stops as markets go higher, if they do. I'm saying keep watching these developments with me.

Things change, and this brewing storm could dissipate, but it could also turn really ugly, really quickly.

If the storm strengthens, and that's my bet, have a fail-safe plan to get out of speculative long positions, a plan to selectively add to core positions on the way down, and a plan to put on short-side positions that will make you a ton of money if I'm right.

Okay, ready?

Here's where the winds have shifted...

To continue reading, please click here...

Three Luxury Companies That Can Bring You Closer to the Good Life

By , Managing Editor, Money Morning -

A lot of consumers are hurting right now, but you wouldn't know that looking at the earnings of major luxury companies.

Many luxury companies like LVMH Moet Hennessey Louis Vuitton SA (PINK: LVMHF), Burberry Group PLC (PINK: BURBY), Hermes International SCA (PINK: HESAF), and Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) had a stronger-than-expected 2011 campaign.

Better still, they're set to expand on that success this year.

U.S. sales are regaining momentum and emerging markets - led by China - have been an outright boon for luxury companies.

Although you may not have realized it, China is now the world's second-largest market for luxury goods, behind Japan. And it could become the largest as soon as this year.

China's National Statistics Bureau says that there are now more people living in the country's towns and cities than in the countryside - making China a predominantly urban nation for the first time in history.

Worker pay is rapidly rising in China, with officially mandated base wage minimums up an average of 22% in 2011. And a new class of workers as well as a wealthy elite are driving luxury sales globally.

Two good examples of this are Burberry and Compagnie Financiere Richemont (PINK: CFRUY).

Luxuriating in Success

Burberry, the U.K's largest luxury-goods maker, reported third-quarter sales that beat analysts' estimates, and said it sees no reason to change full-year forecasts even in light of a "challenging" economy.

Burberry's revenue in the three months ended Dec. 31 climbed 22% to $882 million (574 million pounds). Asia-Pacific sales climbed 36%, while sales in Europe surged 20%. Sales rose 4% in the Americas and 31% in the rest of the world.

The company said it can weather any fallout from Europe's sovereign-debt crisis because Chinese consumers will help offset losses.

Chinese customers alone account for 10% of Burberry's total sales.

Swiss-based luxury goods group Compagnie Financiere Richemont also has benefited from China.

To continue reading, please click here...

Read More…

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