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- By Frank Holmes, Guest Writer
Gazing into their crystal balls last week, Wall Street firms interpreted differing futures for gold next year.
Morgan Stanley awarded gold the "best commodity for 2013" while Goldman Sachs called the end of the metal's hot streak.
After seeing 11 consecutive years of positive performance from gold price, one needs to be wary of research analysts' price forecasts, as they have consistently underestimated the shifting dynamics driving the precious metal higher.
Take a look at analysts' annual predictions of gold prices, which is "a telling picture," CEO Nick Holland of Gold Fields told the crowd at a mining conference last summer.
From 2006 through 2011, Bloomberg's contributing analysts have forecasted that future gold prices would be lower. "The analysts who keep telling us the gold price is going down have been wrong seven years out of seven. That's a remarkable track record!" says Holland.
Take a look at the chart...
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Will the Government Confiscate Your Gold?
Whenever I write about gold, I can be certain of two things.
First and foremost, I know that readership will be exceptionally high. The interest in gold, silver and other precious metals is as intense as I've ever seen.
And, second, I can be sure that, in the days that follow, I'll receive a slew of e-mails, phone calls and letters from folks asking some variation of the same three questions:
- What are the chances that the federal government will confiscate my gold?
- Can I put gold in my IRA?
- And how much gold should I hold?
The bottom line is that a lot of folks are investing in gold for the first time.
To give those newcomers a unique (and informed) perspective on these questions, I picked up the phone and called industry colleague Rich Checkan at Asset Strategies International (ASI), a precious-metals and foreign-exchange dealer that operates out of Rockville, Maryland ... just down the highway from our own offices here in Baltimore.
ASI is a veteran player, having just celebrated its 30th anniversary, so I was certain that Rich and his staffers would have something of value to say on these topics.
On that point, I was right.
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Investing in Gold: What to Expect from Prices Before 2013
- By Deborah Baratz, Contributing Writer, Money Morning
- December 7, 2012
It's been a down week for gold prices, reaching one-month lows, but on Thursday, things began to turn around for the precious metal.
Due to short-covering in anticipation of Friday's employment numbers and comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi raising expectations for an interest rate cut, Comex February gold rose $8 an ounce to $1,701.80.
Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also had a good day on Thursday as they hit record highs of 76.133 million ounces.
Peter Spina, president of Goldseek.com said to Investor's Business Daily of Thursday's levels, "If gold does remain around these levels for the near term (several months), this remains a very healthy gold market, which will set the tone for the next move up."
After the November U.S. jobs report, which had been expected to be skewed from Superstorm Sandy, came out better-than-expected on Friday, gold went above $1,700 again. Expectations for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) easing fell a bit.
Until the Dec. 10 and Dec. 11 FOMC meeting ends, investors are expected to hit the sidelines.
At next week's meeting, FOMC members will decide what to do with "Operation Twist" as it comes to an end. Many think they will extend it, plus implement a "QE4."
This would be good for the precious metals markets. But gold prices are affected by much more than the FOMC.
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How to Buy Gold: Don't Miss the Yellow Metal's Next Move Up
With experts predicting rising gold prices for at least the next year, it's no surprise that more and more investors want to know how to buy gold.
According to the facts and figures cited last week by Money Morning Global Resources Specialist Peter Krauth, 2013 should be a banner year for gold. Krauth projects prices for the primary precious metal could easily climb from the current $1,704 an ounce to $2,200 - or even more - a one-year gain in excess of 25%.
That means every serious investor should have at least some gold in their portfolio.
That raises two immediate questions:
1) What are the best vehicles for investing in gold; and,
2) What are the best ways to buy the yellow metal?
For each investor, the best approach to how to buy gold depends on your goals and expectations.
How to Buy Gold
If you're worried global political and economic tensions will intensify, then holding the actual physical metal is your best choice.
Possible flash points include strife in the Middle East, a meltdown in the Eurozone debt crisis, a continued slowing of China's growth rate and, of course, the U.S. fiscal cliff crisis, which could plunge America and perhaps the world economy back into recession - or worse.
Under such conditions, purists feel holding physical gold provides the only truly effective hedge against almost certain declines in the value of the dollar and other fiat currencies - declines that could be amplified by sharp reversals in global financial markets.
For smaller investors, how to buy gold in physical form typically means buying gold bullion bars, rounds (unadorned coin-shaped pieces) or minted gold bullion coins.
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Why Gold Prices Will Soar After the Dec. 12 FOMC Meeting
- By David Zeiler, Associate Editor, Money Morning
- December 4, 2012
Gold prices will start another epic run beginning Dec. 12 - the day the Federal Reserve will double down on QE3 at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Decisions made at the Dec. 12 FOMC meeting could add as much as $2.2 trillion to the Fed's balance sheet over the next two years, which will turbocharge gold prices, silver prices and oil prices.
The FOMC is the select group within the Fed that sets monetary policy, such as interest rates and the bond-buying programs known as quantitative easing, or QE.
That the Fed will dramatically increase QE3, which launched in September with the monthly purchase of $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), at the Dec. 12 FOMC meeting is almost a given; it practically has no choice. QE3.
But the real issue at the Dec. 12 FOMC meeting will be what to do about the Dec. 31 expiration of the Operation Twist program. In Operation Twist, the Fed sells about $45 billion of short-term Treasuries each month and uses the proceeds to buy long-term Treasuries.
The Fed probably would opt to extend Operation Twist - which has not added to the Fed's balance sheet as QE1, QE2 and QE3 have -- except that it is starting to run low on short-term securities to sell.
Yet the Fed committed in October to extending its easing policies as long as necessary to bring down unemployment and aid the U.S. economy. Its only option is to convert Operation Twist to a conventional bond-buying program - effectively doubling its QE3 money-printing.
"Our baseline expectation is a continuation of the current pace of asset purchases of $85 billion per month on an open-ended basis, which would imply that the current $45 billion per month in [Operation] Twist-financed Treasury purchases is replaced by $45 billion per month in QE-financed Treasury purchases," Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) said of the likely actions at the Dec. 12 FOMC meeting.
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Will Fiscal Cliff Talks Push Gold Prices to $1,800?
- By Deborah Baratz, Contributing Writer, Money Morning
- November 30, 2012
Gold prices fought back after Wednesday's fall as Washington appeared closer to making a deal to avert the looming fiscal cliff. Talks continued between the two sides and there was hope a resolution could be made by year's end.
Carlos Sanchez, director of asset management with CPM Group, said the longer investors have to wait for a deal, the more likely gold prices will rise.
He said to Kitco, "Uncertainty will support gold prices, while a resolution will bring prices down. We can see gold prices heading higher for the next week or two, rising to $1,780-$1,800."
Other analysts see higher gold prices regardless of the fiscal cliff outcome.
Economist Intelligence Unit's Caroline Bain said to Reuters, "It could be positive for gold whichever way the negotiations go, but a rally on a speedy resolution might be quite a short-term positive, whereas any risk of prolonged sovereign stress could be a longer-lasting positive."
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Why Brazil Will Keep Buying Gold – and Driving Up the Price
- By Tony Daltorio, Contributing Writer, Money Morning
- November 29, 2012
Money Morning Global Resources Specialist Peter Krauth stated in his 2013 gold price forecast that the yellow metal was headed to $2,200 an ounce next year, with one of the main price drivers being the increased rate at which central banks are buying gold.
As a group, central banks will have bought about 500 tons of gold this year, the most in more than 40 years. More large purchases are expected in 2013.
Foremost amongst the gold buyers are the central banks of emerging economies around the globe. Recent years have seen purchases by Russia, South Korea, Mexico, India and, as most believe, China.
Another country joining the party, or in this case the carnival, is Brazil.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Brazil raised its gold reserves for the second month in a row in October. Brazil made its first significant gold purchase in more than a decade in September. It expanded its gold holdings by a hefty 17.2 tons last month to 52.5 tons.
This is the largest amount of gold Brazil has held in more than 11 years, since January 2001.
So why is Brazil jumping aboard the bandwagon now and buying gold at a record pace?
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2013 Gold Price Forecast: Expect Gold to Deliver Another Record-Setting Year
- By Peter Krauth, Resource Specialist, Money Morning
- November 28, 2012
No two bull markets are ever the same, and gold is no exception.
During the last secular gold bull market in the 1970s, gold rose from $35 in 1968 all the way to $200 by late 1974.
Then the unthinkable happened. Between late 1974 and mid-1976, gold prices were cut in half, dropping from about $200 to $100.
At the time, many gold investors sold out in disgust, never to return.
But then a funny thing occurred. Gold prices started to climb again, rising from $100 in mid-1976 all the way to $800 by January 1980.
And anyone who was fortunate enough to own gold at $35 earned better than 20 times their investment in just 12 years.
Twenty-one years later, a new bull market began. Since 2001, gold has consistently performed in what now appears to be a record-setting run.
![2013 gold price forecast]()
In fact, since 2001 the average return on gold is now just shy of 18% annually over the last 11 years.
I know of no other major asset that has turned in this kind of performance -- ever. This rise in gold prices is simply unmatched.
This is what a stealth bull market looks like, one that I fully expect will keep powering on.
Now, let's have a look at where gold prices might be headed in 2013...
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The Ultimate Gift for Your Gold Lover and 5 Other Amazing Consumer Trends
- By Frank Holmes, Guest Writer
Last weekend marked the official start of the holiday shopping season in the U.S., so for the next month, consumers will be enticed with daily deals on the latest fads, such as one-cup coffee makers, tablets, flat screens and cashmere sweaters.
According to the latest survey from the Consumer Electronic Association, about 60 percent of adults plan to shop in stores or online during the holiday weekend, with the average person indicating they'll fork over $218 for gifts and merchandise from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
This is a sharp increase from 2011, where shoppers said they'd spend $159.
For the ultimate gold lover on your shopping list, one amazing purchase you can nab is a Christmas tree complete with Disney characters and gold leaf ribbons made of 88 pounds of pure gold from a jewelry store in Tokyo, according to Reuters.
The ornamental tree will set you back $4.2 million, but there's also a smaller version available for $243,000.
But that's not the only thing that has grabbed my attention this holiday season. Here are 5 other amazing consumer trends that are happening around the world.
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Billionaires Buying Gold Bullish for the Yellow Metal
- By Deborah Baratz, Contributing Writer, Money Morning
- November 21, 2012
When billionaire investors are buying gold, it probably means prices for the yellow metal are headed higher.
Three well-known billionaire investors - George Soros, John Paulsen and Julian Robertson - have been adding heavily to their gold holdings this year.
Gold buying by some of the world's most successful investors is a strong argument that gold prices, despite their impressive rise over the past several years, still have a long way to go.
The precious metal is expected to enjoy its 12th straight year of increases in 2013. So far this year, gold prices are up about 10%.
Forecasters see gold rising each quarter in 2013, ending at $1,925 an ounce in the last quarter, or 11% higher than current prices, according to Bloomberg.
While gold prices haven't moved much lately, investors need to stay focused on the long term.
On Tuesday, December gold futures on the Comex fell $8.50 (0.5%) to $1,725.9 an ounce. This came after remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the looming fiscal cliff could threaten the U.S. economy.
Of course, such minor bumps haven't kept the smart money - billionaire investors -- from buying gold.
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