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The Keystone Delay Won't Stop These Canadian Oil Sands Stocks
I'm not a knee-jerk hater of the Obama administration.
But the President's decision to reject the Keystone pipeline was one of his worst.
Aside from creating jobs, the pipeline would have decisively swung U.S. energy supplies more toward domestic sources and those of our friendly neighbor Canada.
Granted, the pipeline wouldn't create energy independence but it would mean importing less oil from the Middle East.
It is the kind of switch that could help save the U.S. large amounts of blood and treasure in the future.
Because in practice, our dependence on Middle Eastern oil forces us to incur huge foreign costs – after all, we just finished paying $800 billion for the Iraq war. As you know, that is just a drop in a much larger bucket.
Add in the human losses and the costs are incalculable.
In this case, caring less about what goes on in the Middle East – other than ensuring the safety of our ally Israel – would save us all those costs, and get us that much closer to balancing the damn Federal budget.
So let's just say shelving the Keystone pipeline wasn't exactly the president's finest hour.
Bullish on Canadian Oil Sands Stocks
However, while the Keystone Pipeline continues to twist in the wind, investors shouldn't ignore the Canadian energy sector – especially the Athabasca tar sands.
Because with oil prices on the rise, these Canadian resource plays are likely to offer investors serious returns.
Here's why: oil prices are headed higher.
In fact, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's recent promise that U.S. interest rates will remain near zero until the end of 2014 has given a huge boost to commodity and energy prices.
What's more, the $600 billion injection into EU banks and the promise of another $600 billion this month just adds more fuel to the inflationary flames.
Eventually, oil prices will get so high that they will cause a recession all by themselves, just like they did in 2008. But remember, that happened at $147 per barrel, so we've still got quite a way to go. This time oil could get closer to $200 per barrel.
That's bullish for places like the Athabasca tar sands.
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) Ready to Rebound After Oil Spill Losses
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC) reported after market close today (Monday) a fourth-quarter profit loss, due to a $4 billion pay out made last quarter related to the BP PlC (NYSE ADR: BP) oil spill in 2010.
Anadarko, the largest U.S. independent oil and gas company by market value, reported a $358 million, or 72 cents per share, loss for the quarter. Revenue rose 42.7% to $3.84 billion from the year earlier quarter.
Excluding the spill-related payout and other items, Anadarko earned 85 cents a share. Wall Street expected the company to book earnings of 60 cents a share, more than doubling the 29 cents earned in 2010's last quarter.
Anadarko Petroleum Corp Stock Price History
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Now with its legal battles behind it, the company is ready to take off as higher oil prices and a recent discovery drive future earnings.
LNG Stocks Are Set to Take Off
As I have discussed over the last two years, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is going to be a complete game-changer.
And along the way, a small group of LNG stocks will become the main focus for investors.
Remember, the LNG process cools natural gas to a liquid form, allowing it to be shipped over long distances. Upon arrival, the liquefied gas is returned its original state before being injected into pipeline for delivery to foreign consumers.
Already, the construction of LNG receiving terminals in Asia and Europe is accelerating.
Here's why.
The European and Asian markets have the biggest need for imports. These markets have a need to meet rising demand and restrain the prices commanded by long-term pipeline-delivered gas.
Luckily, LNG can do both.
Traditionally, natural gas has only been able to develop regional "spot" markets. These are locations where the availability of volume provides an opportunity for traders to execute a price for a quick sale (usually within 72 hours).
This is because the availability of product depends upon the development of import pipelines, which are multi-year, capital-intensive projects.
LNG, on the other hand, can be delivered to a terminal, so it can provide an immediate increase in available local supply.
To the extent that the LNG trade can be sustained, new spot markets are immediately formed around the hubs that develop at the intersection of terminal and delivery pipelines.
And now Qatar – one of the world's largest producers of conventional gas (that is, from freestanding gas fields) – has banked on LNG being the wave of the future.
Qatar has become the first country to commit all of its production to the LNG trade.
And that is a huge vote of confidence for this market.
Considering the number of new tankers involved, this single decision jolted the global shipbuilding industry into one of the most significant increases in business ever recorded.
The Qatari decision was just the first step…
A Global Boost for LNG Stocks
New export terminals are being built by other major gas producers – Russia, North Africa, and Canada. Our neighbors to the north have clearly signaled where the U.S. will be moving next.
A project is moving forward at Kitimat, British Columbia, on the North Pacific coast. It is scheduled for completion in 2014.
Developers originally intended this project to be an LNG receiving facility. But by the time the construction began, the intended flow of gas had changed by 180 degrees.
Today, this facility will be 100% committed to exporting LNG.
And the reason is the same one that is prompting so much U.S. discussion…
Why Oil Prices Won't Stay Down For Long
Oil prices, like stocks, took a few big hits last week.
West Texas Intermediate crude last week dropped below $80 a barrel before bouncing back up to $87 a barrel this week. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell to a six-month low below $100 a barrel before climbing back to $110 a barrel this week.
To hear the mainstream media tell it, much of the drop is based on the assumption that global growth is waning and oil demand is soon to follow.
But that couldn't be more wrong.
Energy is one of the most highly leveraged and most liquid trading vehicles on the planet. A good portion of the decline we've experienced in recent weeks can be explained by nothing more than trading houses raising cash to meet margin calls or redemption requests from hedge funds, pension funds, and other investors.
That's all there is to it. Firms simply need cash and are selling the most easily sellable assets they've got. In the past that's been gold, but lately it's been oil.
Longer-term, demand is still going up and $120 a barrel oil is our next stop, followed by prices of $150 or more in the years ahead.
What's happening now with the markets and energy prices is like being in the eye of a hurricane.
That is, it won't be long before we're once again caught up in the whirlwind growth of emerging markets and energy demand shoots sharply higher.
The Looming Demand Downpour
Global demand is still rising – and it's not going to slow down any time soon. There are huge swaths of the world now adopting gasoline engines.
Let me give you two examples.
Take the farmers in Cambodia. Many put up sheets in their fields at sunset. They then mount small incandescent light bulbs on sticks behind the sheets. The bulbs are powered by small gasoline generators to ensure they stay on all night.
In the morning, those farmers go back and harvest the thousands of crickets that have collided with the sheet after having been drawn to the lights. They wrap up the fallen bugs and head to the markets where they are sold as food.
It's much the same situation in Africa, where small villages require simple engines to pump water.
You may think bugs and small farm pumps are no big deal, but there's an even greater energy revolution going on in the transportation industry.
Oil Prices Look to Top $150 by Midsummer On Resilient Demand and MENA Turmoil
[Editor's Note: This is the latest installment in Money Morning's Quarterly Outlook series, which has covered such topics as the housing market, silver, and technology. Stay tuned for more quarterly reports analyzing the U.S. economy, China, and more.]
Money Morning predicted in its 2011 Outlook series that oil prices would see $100 a barrel by summer. And that's proven to be true – but not entirely for the reasons we discussed.
In addition to the increased demand we talked about in January, violence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has driven oil prices into the stratosphere. The price of light, sweet crude climbed above $112 a barrel last week, up more than 22% from where it started the year.
A recent pullback has driven prices back down to about $107 a barrel, but don't be fooled. Strong demand in emerging markets, a weak dollar, political turmoil in the MENA region, and a strong speculative sentiment will continue to push oil prices higher.
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