• Featured Story

    higher oil prices

    As we await the next chapter in the ongoing Greek debt mess, something of interest is happening right here in the U.S.

    For the first time in my memory (which goes back more than four decades in this business), the energy market's normal supply-and-demand trade-off has been fundamentally altered.

    As I have explained on several occasions in Oil & Energy Investor, overleverage will hamper some U.S. producers, while the inability to replace volume extracted due to the expenses incurred exceeding the wellhead profits will cause significant problems for others.

    Here's where the best opportunities are going to arise...

price of oil

Why I'm Revising My Oil Outlook… Upward

Dow futures

I just left a closed-door meeting in Paris. Assembled here were some high-powered oil practitioners, the traders selling their productions, and the bankers financing all of it.

As often happens, the pundits and talking heads have been discussing matters quite similar to what was on our agenda. And as usual, their perspectives are very different from those of us "behind the scenes."

For some time I have been talking in Oil & Energy Investor about a confluence of factors leading to a rise in oil prices. It was heartening to see I was right according to those assembled in my meeting - except for in the case of one interesting factor.

Why the Price of Oil Is Baffling Analysts (but Not Us)

price of oil

It sure has been amusing to watch the instant oil experts trying to shove their "square peg" explanations into the "round hole" price of oil this week.

So why do these analysts keep getting it wrong? Is it because they have vested interest in oil falling for short plays?

Maybe. But there's another force afoot as far as the price of oil is concerned...

Debunking the Newest Oil Price Myth

oil price

We've seen massive shifts in crude oil prices in recent weeks.

Of course, this has brought back some rather specious arguments by talking heads on TV and pundits spinning the next Armageddon scenario.

The latest is about how rising oil prices will prompt more volume to come online from a particular type of well (called DUCs), sending oil into another tailspin.

I'll deal with that in a minute but first let's address those pundits...

Why Alternative Energy Isn't Taking It on the Chin (Despite Low Oil Prices)

oil prices

When oil prices decline, there's always an inevitable uptick in demand. The reason for this is simple: Markets tend to use more of a cheaper product. After all, when prices at the gas pump are low, a family trip across the country is much easier to plan.

This increase in oil demand has historically caused other forms of energy to stagnate.

But that just isn’t the case with the alternative energy market this time...

3 Charts Show How Overvalued Some Oil Stocks Have Become

oil prices

The price of oil has climbed sharply in the last month. As of April 17, futures of WTI oil were priced as high as $56.81. That's a gain of more than 29% from their $44.03 bottom from mid-March.

Investors trying to play rebounding prices have flooded into oil stocks in the last month.

But investors trying to buy in now are looking at highly overvalued stocks. And these three charts show why...

What the "Yellen Effect" Ultimately Means for Oil Prices

oil prices

Janet Yellen triggered a move in oil prices on March 19. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soared 3.7% and Brent jumped 4.4%.

The talking heads jumped on their chance respond. "Nothing the Fed Chair said indicated a retreat from any pending rate hike!" cried the pundits.

So why all the market exuberance? Here what "Yellen's Effect" really means for oil prices...

Beware of Pundits Playing the "Iran Oil Card"

Iran oil

It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.

Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.

Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.

Combined with production surpluses in the United States and elsewhere, the "instant" prognosticators are pushing their Armageddon pricing scenario again, putting additional pressure on oil prices.

Meanwhile, those playing the new "Iranian card" are shorting oil even further.

It's just the latest example of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It works like this...

Chicken Little of "The Sky is Falling Brokerage" hits the airwaves warning of a collapse in prices, only to earn huge off-camera profits based on what he just said.

Meanwhile, average investors are left holding the bag as share prices fall.

There's a big problem with all of this "instant analysis," and I'm going to show you what it is - and how you can resist the temptation to try to catch this "falling knife" altogether...

Oil Prices Are Going Higher (Big Gains Ahead)

oil prices

The prospect for oil prices in the near future looks significantly more positive. By the end of the second quarter or shortly thereafter, we believe oil prices will rise.

This is despite the recent monthly report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that projects a more prolonged oil glut than initially forecast.

Here is what the IEA got wrong...

Why WTI Crude Oil Prices Fell Today – and Where They're Headed

wti crude oil

The price of WTI crude oil fell below $48 a barrel today (Wednesday) after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly supply report.

But there's one consequence of lower oil prices that will inevitably move them up.

Here's everything you need to know about today's drop and the future of oil prices...

Current Crude Oil Prices at $50.78 – Here's What's Next

current crude oil prices

Current crude oil prices remain below $52 a barrel. Today's slight drop comes at the end of a week that has seen a 3.8% drop so far.

But despite recent pullbacks, WTI and Brent are up 6% and 19% in the last month.

Here's where prices are headed to next - and how they'll get there...

What This "Ice Level" Means to Future Oil Prices

oil prices chart2

You'd have to be living under a rock (and one without Internet access at that) to have missed the oil price swoon that has taken place since June.

Even after a recent bounce back from an under-$50 per barrel low, and a trough-to-peak rebound of 24% since the end of January, the technical picture does not indicate smooth sailing upward from here. 

In fact, if there's only one metric we need to look at to determine where oil prices are going, it would be this one, and it's not showing the type of move we're hoping for any time soon.

In fact, it shows oil will have trouble "breaking the ice"...

Crude Oil Prices Will Recover – Here's How to Play the Rebound

crude oil prices

Crude oil prices continue to be volatile, with both Brent and WTI falling about 3% Wednesday.

But near-term volatility aside, oil prices are recovering from their recent lows. Brent has gained more than 30% since late January and is now over $60 a barrel. WTI is over $52.

While oil isn't going to surge in the short term, there are definite opportunities here. Oil won't have to hit triple digits for them to pay off, either.

Here's how to the play the rebound in energy...

Price of Oil per Barrel Hits $52 as Analysts Continue to Misread Market

price of oil per barrel

The current price of oil per barrel rallied hard today (Friday) at the end of an extremely volatile week.

Oil prices have been U-shaped this week, hitting highs of $54 midday Monday and lows of $48 midday Wednesday before soaring back up today.

But analysts keep calling for lower prices.

Here's what they're failing to understand…

How Analysts Are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices – Again

crude oil prices

Despite a 20% jump in crude oil prices, some pundits continue to predict more pain.

In fact, just yesterday, Citigroup analyst Ed Morse came out with his most bearish forecast yet.

According to Morse, oil prices could fall another 60% to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a "head-fake" than a sustainable turning point.

There's just one problem with all of this bearish analysis. And it's a big one...

The Saudis Are Losing Their Leverage over Oil Prices

oil prices

In an oil market version of a game of chicken, Saudi policymakers are trying to make U.S. producers blink first. And it's starting to work.

U.S. rigs are being brought offshore and drilling projects are being shelved. This will have an impact on the supply side in short order. By this summer, oil prices may be back to a range of $65 to $70 a barrel.

But in waging this doomed oil price war and pushing home its point, the Saudis have made a fatal mistake...

© 2015 Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201, Email: customerservice@MoneyMorning.com