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    My wife and I were just at a children's birthday party. You know, the kind where everyone gets together to sing "Happy Birthday," and then the adults drift off into their own groups to chat.

    Naturally, I fell in with a group of several wealth managers, and you'd better believe we started talking about the markets.

    When the subject turned to oil shares, you could have heard a pin drop.

    You see, some of those folks could be looking at a mighty lean year, depending on their oil exposure.

    But as we know, there's an opportunity to make money as share prices fall. Today I want to show you how to book a quick and easy 30% gain on some very big, very liquid oil shares, even as the stock tumbles down.

    It's the perfect energy play for markets like this...

Article Index

price of oil

The Four Real Reasons Oil Prices Are Slipping

Oil

Oil prices are declining once again. Small oil operators are hurting. Throughout the decades, these small E&P outfits have endured market downswings, vicious weather, and profit constrictions.

But this year all these crises have come at once.

Here's why the price of oil is slipping out of control...

OPEC Shorts Are Driving Down the Price of Oil

oil prices

The conflict between OPEC and U.S. shale/tight oil producers has entered a new phase. And the result has been an accelerated decline in the price of oil.

There is excess supply on the market and a correction has been in order even without the latest OPEC move.

Here's our take on the international scheme to keep oil prices down...

Why This Week's Market Overreaction Won't Affect Energy Demand

Energy

Some days you just want to crawl back into bed and pull up the covers. Wednesday was certainly one of them.

Greece has until Sunday to be saved from financial oblivion, and the Chinese stock market looks like it has come unglued. On top of these crises, the New York Stock Exchange stopped trading for over three hours Wednesday because of a "technical" glitch.

But none of this will have any effect on energy demand. Here's why...

Beat Canada's Oil Revenue Grab with This Investment

oil revenue

"The Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth," the century-old annual Calgary Stampede rodeo and festival, has just gotten underway. But while a million-plus visitors enjoy all the city has to offer, all is not well for petroleum companies in the city dubbed Canada's oil headquarters.

A few short months ago, a forty-four year political dynasty came to an end, as the oil-rich Canadian province of Alberta elected a left-wing government that wants to extract more revenue from energy companies.

Here's one...

How to Invest in the New Energy Balance

higher oil prices

As we await the next chapter in the ongoing Greek debt mess, something of interest is happening right here in the U.S.

For the first time in my memory (which goes back more than four decades in this business), the energy market's normal supply-and-demand trade-off has been fundamentally altered.

As I have explained on several occasions in Oil & Energy Investor, overleverage will hamper some U.S. producers, while the inability to replace volume extracted due to the expenses incurred exceeding the wellhead profits will cause significant problems for others.

Here's where the best opportunities are going to arise...

Why I'm Revising My Oil Outlook… Upward

Dow futures

I just left a closed-door meeting in Paris. Assembled here were some high-powered oil practitioners, the traders selling their productions, and the bankers financing all of it.

As often happens, the pundits and talking heads have been discussing matters quite similar to what was on our agenda. And as usual, their perspectives are very different from those of us "behind the scenes."

For some time I have been talking in Oil & Energy Investor about a confluence of factors leading to a rise in oil prices. It was heartening to see I was right according to those assembled in my meeting - except for in the case of one interesting factor.

Why the Price of Oil Is Baffling Analysts (but Not Us)

price of oil

It sure has been amusing to watch the instant oil experts trying to shove their "square peg" explanations into the "round hole" price of oil this week.

So why do these analysts keep getting it wrong? Is it because they have vested interest in oil falling for short plays?

Maybe. But there's another force afoot as far as the price of oil is concerned...

Debunking the Newest Oil Price Myth

oil price

We've seen massive shifts in crude oil prices in recent weeks.

Of course, this has brought back some rather specious arguments by talking heads on TV and pundits spinning the next Armageddon scenario.

The latest is about how rising oil prices will prompt more volume to come online from a particular type of well (called DUCs), sending oil into another tailspin.

I'll deal with that in a minute but first let's address those pundits...

Why Alternative Energy Isn't Taking It on the Chin (Despite Low Oil Prices)

oil prices

When oil prices decline, there's always an inevitable uptick in demand. The reason for this is simple: Markets tend to use more of a cheaper product. After all, when prices at the gas pump are low, a family trip across the country is much easier to plan.

This increase in oil demand has historically caused other forms of energy to stagnate.

But that just isn’t the case with the alternative energy market this time...

3 Charts Show How Overvalued Some Oil Stocks Have Become

oil prices

The price of oil has climbed sharply in the last month. As of April 17, futures of WTI oil were priced as high as $56.81. That's a gain of more than 29% from their $44.03 bottom from mid-March.

Investors trying to play rebounding prices have flooded into oil stocks in the last month.

But investors trying to buy in now are looking at highly overvalued stocks. And these three charts show why...

What the "Yellen Effect" Ultimately Means for Oil Prices

oil prices

Janet Yellen triggered a move in oil prices on March 19. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soared 3.7% and Brent jumped 4.4%.

The talking heads jumped on their chance respond. "Nothing the Fed Chair said indicated a retreat from any pending rate hike!" cried the pundits.

So why all the market exuberance? Here what "Yellen's Effect" really means for oil prices...

Beware of Pundits Playing the "Iran Oil Card"

Iran oil

It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.

Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.

Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.

Combined with production surpluses in the United States and elsewhere, the "instant" prognosticators are pushing their Armageddon pricing scenario again, putting additional pressure on oil prices.

Meanwhile, those playing the new "Iranian card" are shorting oil even further.

It's just the latest example of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It works like this...

Chicken Little of "The Sky is Falling Brokerage" hits the airwaves warning of a collapse in prices, only to earn huge off-camera profits based on what he just said.

Meanwhile, average investors are left holding the bag as share prices fall.

There's a big problem with all of this "instant analysis," and I'm going to show you what it is - and how you can resist the temptation to try to catch this "falling knife" altogether...

Oil Prices Are Going Higher (Big Gains Ahead)

oil prices

The prospect for oil prices in the near future looks significantly more positive. By the end of the second quarter or shortly thereafter, we believe oil prices will rise.

This is despite the recent monthly report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that projects a more prolonged oil glut than initially forecast.

Here is what the IEA got wrong...

Why WTI Crude Oil Prices Fell Today – and Where They're Headed

wti crude oil

The price of WTI crude oil fell below $48 a barrel today (Wednesday) after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly supply report.

But there's one consequence of lower oil prices that will inevitably move them up.

Here's everything you need to know about today's drop and the future of oil prices...

Current Crude Oil Prices at $50.78 – Here's What's Next

current crude oil prices

Current crude oil prices remain below $52 a barrel. Today's slight drop comes at the end of a week that has seen a 3.8% drop so far.

But despite recent pullbacks, WTI and Brent are up 6% and 19% in the last month.

Here's where prices are headed to next - and how they'll get there...

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