price of oil

Beware of Pundits Playing the "Iran Oil Card"

oil barrels

It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.

Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.

Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.

Combined with production surpluses in the United States and elsewhere, the "instant" prognosticators are pushing their Armageddon pricing scenario again, putting additional pressure on oil prices.

Meanwhile, those playing the new "Iranian card" are shorting oil even further.

It's just the latest example of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It works like this...

Chicken Little of "The Sky is Falling Brokerage" hits the airwaves warning of a collapse in prices, only to earn huge off-camera profits based on what he just said.

Meanwhile, average investors are left holding the bag as share prices fall.

There's a big problem with all of this "instant analysis," and I'm going to show you what it is - and how you can resist the temptation to try to catch this "falling knife" altogether...

Oil Prices Are Going Higher (Big Gains Ahead)

oil prices

The prospect for oil prices in the near future looks significantly more positive. By the end of the second quarter or shortly thereafter, we believe oil prices will rise.

This is despite the recent monthly report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that projects a more prolonged oil glut than initially forecast.

Here is what the IEA got wrong...

What This "Ice Level" Means to Future Oil Prices

oil prices chart2

You'd have to be living under a rock (and one without Internet access at that) to have missed the oil price swoon that has taken place since June.

Even after a recent bounce back from an under-$50 per barrel low, and a trough-to-peak rebound of 24% since the end of January, the technical picture does not indicate smooth sailing upward from here. 

In fact, if there's only one metric we need to look at to determine where oil prices are going, it would be this one, and it's not showing the type of move we're hoping for any time soon.

In fact, it shows oil will have trouble "breaking the ice"...

Crude Oil Prices Will Recover – Here's How to Play the Rebound

crude oil prices

Crude oil prices continue to be volatile, with both Brent and WTI falling about 3% Wednesday.

But near-term volatility aside, oil prices are recovering from their recent lows. Brent has gained more than 30% since late January and is now over $60 a barrel. WTI is over $52.

While oil isn't going to surge in the short term, there are definite opportunities here. Oil won't have to hit triple digits for them to pay off, either.

Here's how to the play the rebound in energy...

Price of Oil per Barrel Hits $52 as Analysts Continue to Misread Market

price of oil per barrel

The current price of oil per barrel rallied hard today (Friday) at the end of an extremely volatile week.

Oil prices have been U-shaped this week, hitting highs of $54 midday Monday and lows of $48 midday Wednesday before soaring back up today.

But analysts keep calling for lower prices.

Here's what they're failing to understand…

How Analysts Are Wrong About Crude Oil Prices – Again

crude oil prices

Despite a 20% jump in crude oil prices, some pundits continue to predict more pain.

In fact, just yesterday, Citigroup analyst Ed Morse came out with his most bearish forecast yet.

According to Morse, oil prices could fall another 60% to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a "head-fake" than a sustainable turning point.

There's just one problem with all of this bearish analysis. And it's a big one...

The Saudis Are Losing Their Leverage over Oil Prices

oil prices

In an oil market version of a game of chicken, Saudi policymakers are trying to make U.S. producers blink first. And it's starting to work.

U.S. rigs are being brought offshore and drilling projects are being shelved. This will have an impact on the supply side in short order. By this summer, oil prices may be back to a range of $65 to $70 a barrel.

But in waging this doomed oil price war and pushing home its point, the Saudis have made a fatal mistake...

Why the Price of Oil Is Surging – in One Picture

price of oil

The price of oil is still on the rise today (Tuesday). As of 12:35 p.m. GMT (7:35 a.m. EST) today, Brent traded at $56.38 a barrel, a nearly 3% gain from its previous value.

That puts Brent oil up 14% since last Friday (Jan. 30). And on that day, Brent surged 8% - its biggest one-day gain since 2009.

WTI crude traded this morning at $50.88, up roughly 2.6% since Monday night.

Oil prices are surging for one reason, and this picture says it all...

Why the Price of Oil Surged on Wednesday

price of oil

The price of oil rose dramatically Tuesday, posting its best one-day performance since 2012. All of this occurred in a market with oversupply concerns still unresolved and a continuing host of short artists poised to pummel futures prices at any opportunity.

So, if the environment remains essentially the same, why the rise in prices?

Here's why - in addition to where oil prices are headed next...

Crude Oil Prices Today: The Other Side of the "Glut"

oil barrels

The pundits continue to hawk the same reasons for the fall in crude oil prices today.

These are always "spearheaded" by comments about surging global supply led by the onslaught of unconventional (tight and shale) oil production in the United States.

Invariably, what's missed by these "TV sages" are the pricing dynamics kicking in that virtually guarantee an increase in oil prices as we move into 2015.

Just take a look...

Stock Market Futures in the Green While Oil Slides Another 3%

Stock market futures

Good morning! Stock market futures for Tuesday, Jan. 13, forecasted a 74-point gain over yesterday's close. In the last session, the Dow Jones plunged 96 points after crude oil prices crashed more than 4%.

Today, investors will react to the kickoff of earnings season. Watch for reports from KB Home (NYSE: KBH), Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI), and CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX).

Here's what else you should know about the stock market today - including your "Money Morning Tip of the Day" - to make it a profitable Tuesday...

Current Crude Oil Prices: $50 "Limit" for Brent

current crude oil prices

Current crude oil prices in the United States were on pace for a two-day winning streak Thursday amid modest gains.

In early afternoon trading, WTI prices were up $0.04, or 0.08%, to $48.69 a barrel. Brent crude, meanwhile, was lower by $0.25, or 0.49%, to $50.91 just after noon.

Here's a closer look at today's oil prices - as well as why the current oil price story is still ugly, at least for now...

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