Which global economy grew at an annual rate of 11% in the second quarter, and will report a second-consecutive double-digit advance when it reports on Monday?
Hint: It isn’t China.
But you are looking in the correct part of the world.
The economy in question is South Korea, which has enjoyed an astonishing rebound since it reached a recessionary bottom last winter. One factor in particular should nurture this rebound: The Korean economy wasn’t pulled down by the U.S.-led subprime mortgage crisis, which infected many foreign banks that invested in mortgage-backed securities – the Asian Tiger was pole-axed by a collapse in world trade in the first three months of this year.
At the nadir in March, South Korean exports were down 40% from the same point in 2008. The banking system also had a liquidity crisis that required a government bailout – not because of investments in toxic U.S. derivatives, but because of similarly lackluster credit card loans and dodgy mortgage rubbish of its own.
The South Korean won declined by 40% against the dollar during the 12-month-stretch that ended in February. It has since recovered about half that drop, so it remains undervalued.
But the overall outlook is highly upbeat. From its low point in December 2008, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) is up 65%. Exports have recovered, particularly on the back of surging demand from China – a trading partner that is growing a bit more slowly than Korea, but that has considerably more muscle with 27 times the population.
Korea's current account balance once again shows a healthy surplus. Credit-rater Fitch Ratings Inc., which had placed Korea on “credit watch” for a possible downgrade from it's A+ rating, recently announced that the downgrade would be unnecessary, and said that Korea could expect to run a budget surplus in 2011.
That demonstrates Korea’s true investment allure: The country is well run. It elected a pro-business government led by President Lee Myung-bak in the beginning of 2008 (Lee’s term lasts until 2013), and that government has coped pretty well with the global financial crisis.
Since its trade agreement with the United States is on indefinite “hold” in the Congress of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA., Korea recently signed a similar pact with the European Union, which may boost exports somewhat.
Like nearly everywhere else, Korea’s government spent on “stimulus” – but only moderately – so the budget deficit is only expected to reach 4.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, according to The Economist magazine’s panel of forecasters.
In any case, Korea’s government spending as a percentage of GDP is one of the lowest of the world’s most-affluent developed economies. That means it will be much less of a burden than on the Korean economy than will similar outlays in the higher-spending Japan, United States and European Union.
The forecasters at The Economist expect Korea to advance at a 2.8% rate in 2010, but that forecast looks way too low. After all, remember that even in the difficult, post-Asian-contagion years of 1998-2008, Korea experienced average annual productivity gains of 4.3% – more than double the rate experienced by the U.S. economy during the same period.
At first glance, Korea’s stock market looks expensive, trading at 19 times earnings. However, the earnings concerned are from the bottom of the recession, when several of the big exporters were operating in the red. The market is still below its mid-2008 level, when the overall Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio was only 11.
One admittedly annoying reality is that most large Korean companies abolished their dividends during the credit crunch, and have yet to restore the payouts.
Even so, Korea’s economy is a big benefactor of the torrid growth being generated by its much-bigger neighbor – Mainland China – which is why some of Korean stocks are magnificent China plays.
There are several Korean stocks that trade as American Depository Receipts (ADRs) on the New York Stock Exchange, and in sufficient volume to make them suitable profit plays. My thoughts on each of these companies follow:
[Editor's Note: Throughout the global financial crisis, longtime market guru Martin Hutchinson has managed to call both sides of the market correctly. During the market rebound that started in early March, Hutchinson assembled high-yielding dividend stocks, profit plays on gold, and specially designated "Alpha-Bulldog" stocks into high-income/high-return portfolios for savvy investors.
But his market calls before the meltdown that started last year were just as important. His warnings about the dangers of credit-default swaps - issued half a year before those deadly derivatives ignited the worldwide financial firestorm - would have kept investors who heeded his caveats out of ruinous bank-stock investments. In fact, Hutchinson even issued a highly accurate prediction of when and where the U.S. stock market would bottom out (a feat that won him substantial public recognition).
Experts are taking notice. And so should you.
Hutchinson is now making those insights available to individual investors. His trading service, The Permanent Wealth Investor, combines high-yielding dividend stocks, gold and his "Alpha-Bulldog" stocks into winning portfolios. And the strategy is designed to work in any kind of market- bull, bear or neutral.
To find out more about the Alpha-Bulldog strategy - or Hutchinson's new service, The Permanent Wealth Investor - please just click here.]
News and Related Story Links: