In my very first column, on the very first day we published Private Briefing back in August 2011, I shared an important investment lesson with all of you.
And today we’re going to see the payoff.
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You'd have to be living under a rock (and one without Internet access at that) to have missed the oil price swoon that has taken place since June.
Even after a recent bounce back from an under-$50 per barrel low, and a trough-to-peak rebound of 24% since the end of January, the technical picture does not indicate smooth sailing upward from here.
In fact, if there's only one metric we need to look at to determine where oil prices are going, it would be this one, and it's not showing the type of move we're hoping for any time soon.
In fact, it shows oil will have trouble "breaking the ice"...
Crude oil prices continue to be volatile, with both Brent and WTI falling about 3% Wednesday.
But near-term volatility aside, oil prices are recovering from their recent lows. Brent has gained more than 30% since late January and is now over $60 a barrel. WTI is over $52.
While oil isn't going to surge in the short term, there are definite opportunities here. Oil won't have to hit triple digits for them to pay off, either.
Despite a 20% jump in crude oil prices, some pundits continue to predict more pain.
In fact, just yesterday, Citigroup analyst Ed Morse came out with his most bearish forecast yet.
According to Morse, oil prices could fall another 60% to $20 a barrel. As for the recent rebound, Morse thinks it looks more like a "head-fake" than a sustainable turning point.
There's just one problem with all of this bearish analysis. And it's a big one...
In an oil market version of a game of chicken, Saudi policymakers are trying to make U.S. producers blink first. And it's starting to work.
U.S. rigs are being brought offshore and drilling projects are being shelved. This will have an impact on the supply side in short order. By this summer, oil prices may be back to a range of $65 to $70 a barrel.
Crude oil prices continue to drop in the wake of Saudi Arabia's shift in leadership. U.S. policymakers will have a tougher time with new King Salman than they've had in some time.
With King Salman taking over in Saudi Arabia, many have wondered how the OPEC country will handle its oil policy.
The country's refusal to cut production in 2014 was one of the biggest reasons crude oil prices fell so sharply over the past seven months.
Money Morning's Global Energy Strategist Dr. Kent Moors appeared on CNBC last week and discussed how Saudi Arabia could handle its oil policy now. He's a 35-year expert in oil and gas policy, and regularly meets with oil policymakers from around the globe.
Deflation in 2015 seems to be upon us. And while falling prices might seem like a good thing, deflation can wreak havoc on the economy.
In a deflationary period, prices will drop, corporate profits will dry up, wages will shrink, and all of this will reinforce the conditions of recessions.
These four charts show that the U.S. has a real deflation problem now...
The price of oil rose dramatically Tuesday, posting its best one-day performance since 2012. All of this occurred in a market with oversupply concerns still unresolved and a continuing host of short artists poised to pummel futures prices at any opportunity.
So, if the environment remains essentially the same, why the rise in prices?
Here's why - in addition to where oil prices are headed next...
The crude oil price drop today (Tuesday) fell to its lowest in five years. Both WTI and Brent oil are down 59% since June 2014.
If this trend continues, oil will be the lowest in a decade.
The pundits continue to hawk the same reasons for the fall in crude oil prices today.
These are always "spearheaded" by comments about surging global supply led by the onslaught of unconventional (tight and shale) oil production in the United States.
Invariably, what's missed by these "TV sages" are the pricing dynamics kicking in that virtually guarantee an increase in oil prices as we move into 2015.
Good morning! Stock market futures for Tuesday, Jan. 13, forecasted a 74-point gain over yesterday's close. In the last session, the Dow Jones plunged 96 points after crude oil prices crashed more than 4%.
Today, investors will react to the kickoff of earnings season. Watch for reports from KB Home (NYSE: KBH), Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI), and CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX).
The current price of oil per barrel today (Monday) showed no sign of breaking its downward spiral. The long-suffering energy sector caused widespread losses in the U.S. equity market.
Late Monday morning, both WTI oil and Brent oil hit new six-year lows.
Best oil ETFs to buy now: Crude oil prices have dropped to their lowest prices since 2009, falling below $50 a barrel this month, after reaching $115 a barrel in June.
But Money Morning's Global Energy Strategist Dr. Kent Moors says oil prices are near a bottom, and will rebound in 2015.
"As the most fluid commodity in the world, crude oil has the ability to quickly self-correct, which is why longtime oil veterans aren't worried about falling prices,” Moors said. "In fact, the vast majority of them (including myself) actually expect oil prices to climb next year."
These oil ETFs are trading at a huge discount now, but won’t for long…
Current crude oil prices in the United States were on pace for a two-day winning streak Thursday amid modest gains.
In early afternoon trading, WTI prices were up $0.04, or 0.08%, to $48.69 a barrel. Brent crude, meanwhile, was lower by $0.25, or 0.49%, to $50.91 just after noon.
With cheap crude oil prices, investors are pondering which stocks to buy when oil is low.
Money Morning Technical Trading Strategist D.R. Barton told viewers of FOX Business' "Varney & Co." today (Thursday) he isn't crazy about oil given the recent slide. But he's also aware that investment prospectuses and investors looking to diversify will still be drawn to the sector.
One oil giant stands out. And another should be avoided. Here's what those companies are.
Getting started this year took a bit longer than usual.
When I returned home from the Bahamas, I had to hook up an entirely new system of computers and peripherals. To top it off, everything is in a new version of Windows.
Talk about a monopoly! After a few beers, I would be happy to tell you what I really think of it.
Finally, things are now getting back to normal.
Of course, the oil price "Grinch" is still with us. He outstayed his welcome weeks ago, but with the shorts still driving oil prices lower he's decided to extend his stay.
And as the first two trading sessions this week have shown, the instability in the energy sector remains as well.
But as I'll show you, it's not all bad news.
For one portion of the industry, lower oil prices actually mean higher profits...
