After rising as much as 16% earlier this year, silver prices are now nearly unchanged year to date. They're up just 0.2%, while gold has gained 7.2%.
The silver price isn't the only number that's lagging...
Silver's option activity sits near a decade low. That's highly unusual - and won't last.
In fact, the low activity suggests things are about to change for the white metal.
According to Mike McGlone, head of U.S. research for ETF Securities, 30-day silver options volatility is roughly around 12% as of Tuesday's close. While it has ticked up a hair from the 10-year low logged last week, it remains well below the historic average of around 30%.
"Volatility is always mean-reverting, so when volatility is that low, it's ready for a big move," McGlone told Kitco. "I think the path of least resistance is up."
That last time silver volatility dipped into the mid-teens was early 2013, right before silver prices spiked in April. The silver price hit just under $28 an ounce. The time before that was in 2010 when silver dipped to $17.94 in August, just ahead of silver's 2011 breakout to a record high of $48.70 on April 28.
Knowing when the big move up is likely to happen is key - and we have a few more signs that it's happening soon.
Telling signs that the silver price is poised to bounce include an unusually high gold/silver ratio, robust retail demand, and strong fabrication use.
And, all those signs are aligning for an upward move in the silver price. Take a look:
The silver price could remain range-bound near term. Data from The Commodity Trader's Almanac shows silver tends to peak of trend lower in May, reaching a bottom in late June.
That sets the stage for a nice buying opportunity for savvy silver investors. As Money Morning Global Resource Specialist Peter Krauth explains, a lower silver price lures investors in, and the buying triggers a price boost.
At last check, spot silver was trading at $19.32 an ounce, down $0.08, or 0.41%.
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Silver Volatility Levels Near 10-Year Lows: Possible Trend Change on Horizon?