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Global Economic Intersection Article of the Week
We've all heard the cliché about Dr. Copper. It's so cliché by now that I'd be embarrassed to even repeat it. But that cute saying has more to do with the fact that the price of copper is a relatively good gauge indicating the health of the economy, than offering a true reflection of the health of the equities markets. After all, the action in the stock markets has become so disconnected from the real economy (in essence, from 'reality') that I sometimes wonder whether the stock markets are even going to be in existence a decade from now. Nonetheless, what I'd like to demonstrate here is that copper, as a truly good representative of industrial materials (commodities), also relates to the stock markets in such a way that it can provide us with very sound signals about the future direction for equities.
At this time, it appears to be issuing a very stern warning, a warning that in the past has been very accurate and dependable… to get the hell out of equities.
In the past, we have seen charts showing the S&P 500 when it is priced in terms of various other vehicles… gold for example. Those studies are very interesting and offer 'some' guidance about whether or not investors are really getting ahead after inflation is taken into account. The unfortunate problem with that particular gold analysis is that the price of gold had for years been clandestinely, and later proven to be, manipulated. Clearly, it still is. Gold had been h eld down by those who wish to hide the fact that the only real money "is" gold, and that the illusion of a soaring stock market is just that… an illusion based on ever increasing liquidity that continuously and severely destroys the value of fiat dollars. No folks, when the equities markets are soaring, you are not getting your money's worth. But the global banking oligarchy doesn't want you to know that. So the sad truth is that any analysis that uses gold as one of the component comparators is flawed, thanks to the likes of JPM.
In an effort to provide a better, and far more accurate, picture of the real effects of inflation, I presented a study back in April of 2011 which showed the S&P 500 as priced in oil. Needless to say it offered a much clearer picture of the real value of the S&P and was indeed very revealing. Disgustingly so, because that study exposed the fact that while equities had indeed risen in nominal terms since 1999, the price of oil had actually increased at 870% the pace. For anyone who might be interested in reviewing that particular analysis, it can be found by clicking here. But before you do that, I beg your kind understanding that this article was written at the beginning go my little foray into the world of publishing articles (at the behest of several of my friends at Seeking Alpha). I was a neophyte. I hadn't yet thought of better ways to display charts so that they weren't quite so 'busy'. I didn't consider myself to be an particularly good writer back then and as far as I'm concerned I still isn't.
So far, we have discussed two different comparative studies: a) the S&P as priced in real (but grossly manipulated) money, namely gold…. and b) the S&P as priced in 'fuel' that a healthy economy requires… oil. There was a third, one which I address in the footnote and which is relating the S&P to the $CRX. But what we're going to investigate here is a 4th way of pricing the S&P 500… as priced in one of the most commonly used 'materials' consumed in a healthy and growing 'industrial' economy… and of course we're talking about copper.