I've been known, on occasion, to place a small bet or two if I can find a baseball game that offers a decent risk-reward setup.
Now, I know gambling is frowned upon in some quarters, but even folks who are down on it would be hard-pressed to turn down the "bet" I'm offering today.
Let's look at this past weekend's matchup between the hated Boston Red Sox and my much-beloved Baltimore Orioles. We'll pretend it hasn't happened yet.
Boston is a powerhouse, leading all of MLB in runs scored, with the second-lowest staff earned run average (ERA) in the game. It is nine games ahead of the New York Yankees for the American League East title.
Baltimore, it grieves me to say, scores less than four runs a game. The staff ERA is one of the worst in all of Major League Baseball. As of this writing, Baltimore sits a dismal 49.5 games out of first place.
At first glance, this looks easy: Bet the Red Sox.
The problem is, in order to win $1, you will probably have to bet more than $2 on the Red Sox.
The Orioles are unlikely to win, but every $1 bet should return more than $2. Of course, the odds of that happening are pretty slim, but… if they were to win, the payoff would be excellent.
I'll spare you the math, but both bets are likely losers if you were to "let it ride" over a series of games with similar odds and payoffs.
Instead… Here's the bet I am going to offer you.
About the Author
Tim Melvin is an unlikely investment expert by any measure. Raised in the "projects" of Baltimore by a single mother, he never attended college and started out as a door-to-door vacuum salesman. But he knew the real money was in the stock market, so he set sights on investing - and by sheer force of determination, he eventually became a financial advisor to millionaires. Today, after 30 years of managing money for some of the wealthiest people in the world, he draws on his experience to help investors find "unreasonably good" bargain stocks, multiply profits, and build their nest eggs. Tim tirelessly works to find overlooked "hidden gems" in the stock market, drawing on the research of legendary investors like Benjamin Graham, Walter Schloss, and Marty Whitman. He has written and lectured extensively on the markets, with work appearing on Benzinga, Real Money, Daily Speculations, and more. He has published several books in the "Little Book of" Investment Series and a "Junior Chamber Course" geared towards young adults that teaches Graham's principles and techniques to a new generation of investors. Today, he serves as the Special Situations Strategist at Money Morning and the editor of "Max Wealth" and Heatseekers.