Markman on the Markets: Is it Time to Buy Monsanto?

Is it time to buy Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON)?

My research tells me that the answer to that question is a definite "yes."

When it comes to basic materials investments, we've talked a lot about gold and steel, but don't forget the agricultural goods. As you can see in the chart that follows, St. Louis-based seed-producer Monsanto last week broke out of a long downtrend and consolidation.

Monsano On The Move

Historically, this is a great time to own Monsanto shares, anyway. In each of the past nine years, the company's stock has rallied an average of 8.6% from Nov. 20 through Dec. 9, according to data from Markethistory.com.

Looking out farther, and considering the 35-trading-day span that started on Friday (Nov. 20), Monsanto has a perfect record, with an average 15.2% profit. That span would take you into the first week of January. The last two years yielded returns over that span of 16.3% (2008) and 26.8% (2007).

If you're into options and understand the risks, Monsanto's December and January call options are pretty cheap because the stock's volatility has been so low. If you got the 15% average advance into January, the price would be $88. I told my Strategic Advantage subscribers late last week to consider buying the $85 calls struck in December (MONLQ or MONAQ). They're up quite a bit since, but still worth a shot for the gamblers in the crowd.

Monsanto is Bullish

The company appears to be pretty bullish on its own future. A quarter of a century ago, Monsanto helped establish a new research campus in Chesterfield, Mo., a city that's a major western suburb of St. Louis.

Last week, Monsanto reclaimed that bit of its history by agreeing to acquire the Chesterfield Village Research Center property from Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) for $435 million, according to media reports. The move will not only help ease a major space crunch at Monsanto's Creve Coeur headquarters, it also advances the company's plans to expand its research-and-development operation. Indeed, Monsanto already plans to invest about $1 billion during the current fiscal year in the development of new corn, cotton and soybean seeds.

"St. Louis is already a home to a large percentage of our R&D activity, and this allows us to consolidate our capabilities here and eventually expand them," Monsanto Chief Technology Officer Robb Fraley told the St. Louis Chinese American News in an interview.

[ Editor's Note: Veteran portfolio manager, commentator and author Jon Markman brings deep and detailed insights like these to the readers of his Strategic Advantage newsletter every week. In a new report, Markman details how a new type of market was ushered into existence by the global financial crisis. It's a market that's tightly controlled and rapidly deployed. And it's a market that dispenses with many of the tried-and-true rules of investing that we learned to follow as a matter of routine.

Those old lessons are out the window, Markman says, noting that "Investing will never be the same." But with the new rules have come new profit opportunities – opportunities that Markman chronicles each week in Strategic Advantage.

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1 Response

  1. steve | March 8, 2010

    It's time to CLOSE Monsanto and ban genetically modified crops. When the proverbial stuff hits the fan with GMOs, they may as well close. Just look at the "More on this topic" list above.

    Reply


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