[“Hot Stocks” is a new Money Morning feature that analyzes the investment outlook of global companies that are in the news. This is the sixth installment of this ongoing investment series.]
Money Morning Staff Reports
Riddle me this: When is it good news when an analyst slashes his price target for a stock by 55%?
Answer: When that “reduced” target price still represents a 59% gain.
That’s precisely the scenario facing Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (ADR: RIO), the world's biggest iron-ore producer. Felipe Reis, an analyst for Banco Santander SA (ADR: STD), yesterday (Monday) slashed his target price for the U.S.-listed shares by more than half, stating that the worldwide outlook has become “more challenging.”
Reis, who previously had placed a year-end 2009 price target of $40 a share Vale’s U.S.-listed American Depository Receipts (ADRs), now says the shares of the Rio De Janeiro-based mining-and-metals heavyweight will trade at $18 at next year’s close. If you’re keeping score, that’s a reduction of 55% from his prior target.
But it still represents a 59% gain from yesterday’s closing price of $11.32 a share.
”We are adjusting our estimates for Vale in order to reflect the more challenging scenario in the commodities market,” Reis wrote in a research missive, noting that the reduced target price takes into account “the significant global economic slowdown.”
In related news yesterday, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) cut its 2009 economic-growth forecast for Brazil to 2.9%, from a previous estimate of 3.1%, as the lagging effect of scarcer credit may be deeper than thought.
The Brazil exchange-traded fund, theiShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE: EWZ), was the focus of a recent Money Morning “Buy, Sell or Hold” column, and soared as much as 42% in six days after it was recommended as a “Buy.”
Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson also recently wrote favorably about the long-term prospects of the Brazil economy as a “safe haven” market that U.S. investors should consider.
News and Related Story Links:
Vale Falls as Santander Cuts Share Estimate on Global Outlook.
Money Morning Buy, Sell or Hold Series:
Buy, Sell or Hold: iShares MSCI Brazil Index.
Money Morning Special Investment Report:
Four “Safe Haven” Markets For U.S. Investors.
Money Morning Hot Stocks (Part I):
Hot Stocks: IBM Bucks the Earnings Trend as Tech-Sector Stocks Trade Down to Bargain Levels.
Money Morning Hot Stocks (Part II):
Hot Stocks: Intel Posts Earnings Surprise Because the “Atom” Was No Bomb.
Money Morning (Hot Stocks Part III):
Hot Stocks: Can AMD’s Future be Fabulous if it’s Fabless?
Money Morning Hot Stocks Series (Part IV):
Hot Stocks: Coca-Cola’s Strong International Sales Serve Up Sparkling Third-Quarter Results.
Money Morning Hot Stocks Series (Part V):
Hot Stocks: Priceline.com Shares Poised to Beam Up, Barron’s Says