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The Bull Market's Eighth "Birthday" Is the Perfect Time to Invest

The bull market turned eight years old this week, and I know some folks who are having a wicked, blowout birthday party.

My advice, in the words of the late, great Stevie Ray Vaughan, is "if the house is a rockin' don't bother knockin', come on in."

You've got every reason to jump in and crash this party.

That's because this bull market, in spite of its maturity in historical, human terms, is in fact just coming out of "middle childhood" and running headlong into another growth phase.

Listen, if you miss this party, you're going to regret it for the rest of your life.

Think of Markets as a Herd Animal

Of course stock markets don't know they have birthdays; they don't mark time the way humans do.

Rather, they ebb and flow like the tides in the short run and in longer time frames tend to follow economic cycles and capital-based cyclical waves.

(Incidentally, that's exactly why I call my VIP trading service the Capital Wave Forecast. We've done six times better than the markets on our stocks, and 13 times better than the market on our options. A "wave" is definitely the right way to look at it.)

Most analysts and pros will tell you that this particular bull market started once the post-crisis Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed at 6,443.27 on March 6, 2009, or when the S&P 500 bottomed at 676.53 three days later on March 9.

Only a tiny number of insiders thought that March 2009 was the bottom of the 50%-plus drop in stocks, and an even smaller number knew it would be the beginning of a roaring secular bull market.

I was one of them. That's why you should listen to me now.

After calling the meltdown, once in February 2008 and again in that summer, I called the bottom and the historic rally, here, on March 27, 2009.

How did I know? No mystery…

What the Market Is "Saying" About Its Birthday

Figuring out bear and bull markets is easy – especially relative to analyzing and figuring out which way individual stocks are going. That's because markets are herd animals; you can hear the noise they make and see which way they're running.

Yep, it really is that simple.

The market is saying “Go!” loud and clear. And it’s been saying so for a while.

The noise now – if you listen to the market itself – is the sound of big breaths being taken as the herd (of smart investors) fills their lungs for another marathon run higher.

Forget the naysayers and false prophets who say this bull is long in the tooth and about to break down.

True, the market has been running for eight years on lousy earnings, exponentially exploding public debt, exponentially collapsing commodities and existential threats like China's iffy economy and currency wars.

Optimism is pervasive. Amidst all that human "noise," markets roared higher in the United States, taking lots of global markets along for the ride.

So why would markets turn tail now when earnings are finally, actually picking up?

Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

About the Author

Shah Gilani is the Event Trading Specialist for Money Map Press. He provides specific trading recommendations in Capital Wave Forecast, where he predicts gigantic "waves" of money forming and shows you how to play them for the biggest gains. In Zenith Trading Circle Shah reveals the worst companies in the markets - right from his coveted Bankruptcy Almanac - and how readers can trade them over and over again for huge gains. He also writes our most talked-about publication, Wall Street Insights & Indictments, where he reveals how Wall Street's high-stakes game is really played.

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  1. Gina L | March 10, 2017

    You and Paul Mampilly are both my favorite investment advisors.

  2. Max R | March 10, 2017

    Dear Shah: In the present context you envision, what do you think about the CEF´s? Do you believe those Funds have a good perspective? Do you thing they represent an interesting oportunity? Thanks for your views

  3. fallingman | March 10, 2017

    "…naysayers and false prophets" … oh please. Did you actually write this or is someone on your staff just cutting and pasting some boilerplate from the files?

    If someone disagrees with your assessment, does that automatically make that person a naysayer and a false prophet? Really?

    Am I arguing that the market will go down or not go up? No. I don't know, and the truth is, neither do you, and it's insulting when you use slurs to describe people who have a different point of view simply to sell your advisory service.

    On some of your other points … the administration may be "pushing" tax cuts and deregulation and jabbering about a Trillion Dollar tax cuts, but you must not know very much about politics if you think wishing for something in DC makes it so. And if his orangeness goes about honoring his other promises the way he's going about dismantling the ACA … letting the execrable Paul Ryan calls the shots … ain't none of it gonna happen, beyond some regulatory relief. Trillion dollar stimulus program my bottom.

    And what if the stimulus does go through? Did Obombya's $880 Bill move the needle? Not really. And it's been shown by Lacy Hunt and others that we've reached the stage in our bingeing on debt where the multiplier effect … the pop we get from spending borrowed money … is now NEGATIVE! We'll get no pop at all even if the money's spent … funneled to crony insiders and wasted. Keynesian deficit spending schemes as a way to artificially boost GDP no longer work. Looks at Japan to see just how impotent they are. So, why are you promoting this fantasy?

    Is the stock market still pretty much the only game in town due to that machinations of the Fed, whom you have bitterly and admirably criticized?

    Yeah, it probably is, but markets that rise on money conjuring vs economic fundamentals are the stuff bubbles are made of. You shouldn't be wary of this market, because it's in year 8. You should be wary because it's unsupported by fundamentals … AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO.

    Could indices go higher? Sure. A lot higher? Sure. Liquidity is the prime factor that moves markets … until it isn't … until the liquidity dries up or an event occurs.

    Could they go a lot lower? Uh, yeah, Could they crash? Yeah.

    The only way I'd even dream of being long here is with longer dated OTM calls … with known downside risk. That's reasonable and probably a smart move, because the trend IS clearly up and the robo machines and brainless index buyers have the bit in their teeth. Being long stocks outright is nuts in my book. Amateur hour. Waiting around for the greater fool to show up. Even if it works out, it's a dumb play. Guess that makes me a naysayer and a false prophet. So be it.

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