The bull market turned eight years old this week, and I know some folks who are having a wicked, blowout birthday party.
My advice, in the words of the late, great Stevie Ray Vaughan, is "if the house is a rockin' don't bother knockin', come on in."
You've got every reason to jump in and crash this party.
That's because this bull market, in spite of its maturity in historical, human terms, is in fact just coming out of "middle childhood" and running headlong into another growth phase.
Listen, if you miss this party, you're going to regret it for the rest of your life.
Think of Markets as a Herd Animal
Of course stock markets don't know they have birthdays; they don't mark time the way humans do.
Rather, they ebb and flow like the tides in the short run and in longer time frames tend to follow economic cycles and capital-based cyclical waves.
(Incidentally, that's exactly why I call my VIP trading service the Capital Wave Forecast. We've done six times better than the markets on our stocks, and 13 times better than the market on our options. A "wave" is definitely the right way to look at it.)
Most analysts and pros will tell you that this particular bull market started once the post-crisis Dow Jones Industrial Average bottomed at 6,443.27 on March 6, 2009, or when the S&P 500 bottomed at 676.53 three days later on March 9.
Only a tiny number of insiders thought that March 2009 was the bottom of the 50%-plus drop in stocks, and an even smaller number knew it would be the beginning of a roaring secular bull market.
I was one of them. That's why you should listen to me now.
After calling the meltdown, once in February 2008 and again in that summer, I called the bottom and the historic rally, here, on March 27, 2009.
How did I know? No mystery…
What the Market Is "Saying" About Its Birthday
Figuring out bear and bull markets is easy – especially relative to analyzing and figuring out which way individual stocks are going. That's because markets are herd animals; you can hear the noise they make and see which way they're running.
Yep, it really is that simple.
The market is saying “Go!” loud and clear. And it’s been saying so for a while.
The noise now – if you listen to the market itself – is the sound of big breaths being taken as the herd (of smart investors) fills their lungs for another marathon run higher.
Forget the naysayers and false prophets who say this bull is long in the tooth and about to break down.
True, the market has been running for eight years on lousy earnings, exponentially exploding public debt, exponentially collapsing commodities and existential threats like China's iffy economy and currency wars.
Optimism is pervasive. Amidst all that human "noise," markets roared higher in the United States, taking lots of global markets along for the ride.
So why would markets turn tail now when earnings are finally, actually picking up?
About the Author
Shah Gilani boasts a financial pedigree unlike any other. He ran his first hedge fund in 1982 from his seat on the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange. When options on the Standard & Poor's 100 began trading on March 11, 1983, Shah worked in "the pit" as a market maker.
He helped develop what has become known as the Volatility Index (VIX) - to this day one of the most widely used indicators worldwide. After leaving Chicago to run the futures and options division of the British banking giant Lloyd's TSB, Shah moved up to Roosevelt & Cross Inc., an old-line New York boutique firm. There he originated and ran a packaged fixed-income trading desk, and established that company's "listed" and OTC trading desks.
Shah founded a second hedge fund in 1999, which he ran until 2003.
Shah's vast network of contacts includes the biggest players on Wall Street and in international finance. These contacts give him the real story - when others only get what the investment banks want them to see.
Today, as editor of 10X Trader, Shah presents his legion of subscribers with the chance to earn ten times their money on trade after trade.
Shah is also the proud founding editor of The Money Zone, where after eight years of development and 11 years of backtesting he has found the edge over stocks, giving his members the opportunity to rake in potential double, triple, or even quadruple-digit profits weekly with just a few quick steps.
Shah is a frequent guest on CNBC, Forbes, and Marketwatch, and you can catch him every week on Fox Business's "Varney & Co."
He also writes our most talked-about publication, Wall Street Insights & Indictments, where he reveals how Wall Street's high-stakes game is really played.