Chart of the Day: August's "Unofficial" Fed Day


If you thought you could catch your breath because there’s no Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this month… guess again.

All the Fed officials and plenty of the world’s wealthiest elite are hunkered down in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. They’re attending the annual Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium, which kicks off today.  And the headliner of the event is Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

So, we know, all head holes will be tuned in to hear what he has to say. This makes Jackson Hole an “unofficial” Fed Day.

Jackson Hole tends be a perfect storm for major market moves. It takes place as second quarter earnings winding to a close and investors are desperate for news to react to.

In 2021, Powell’s dovish set list at Jackson Hole sparked a nearly 1% one-day rally on the S&P 500. In 2020, the S&P moved marginally higher the day of Powell’s virtual performance. But jumped 0.69% the day after to close out the index’s best August in 34 years. And in 2022, JPow’s hawkish tone sent the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) lower by 4.1%.

Now, over the past year, the trend hasn’t been too friendly when it comes to the QQQ and official and “unofficial” Fed Days. The proxy for the Nasdaq 100 has fallen on seven of the last nine of these. So, keep those expectations tempered.