Roblox (RBLX)
We’re starting today’s Three Stocks with a few MEME favorites from 2022.
First up is Roblox (RBLX). The game and programming platform company announced their earnings results this morning.
The company’s results met expectations for last quarter, however the company’s management released an outlook for the next quarter that fell short on bookings.
The weaker outlook is turning into a heavy trend among consumer discretionary companies as companies are clearly preparing for a rough summer of spending. We’ll talk about this tomorrow in the Morning Buzz, don’t miss out.
Roblox shares are one of the largest losers on the Nasdaq today as the stock is trading more than 20% lower than last night’s close.
The stock has also broken through all three major intermediate trendlines – the 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages – which is often a sign that a stock is likely to continue its freefall for weeks after a dead cat bounce emerges over the next week or so.
Roblox shares are trading at $30, a round numbered price. You should expect to see the market attempt a short-term bounce at that level, but only because of its round-numbered nature. Otherwise, a move to $25 – where the stock formed a long-term bottom in October 2023 – is the next target for Roblox shares.
On a sidenote, Wall Street analysts provided a wave of upgrades to Roblox stock in February and April. The stock is considered a Strong Buy by the Wall Street crowd. Expect that to draw downgrades and lower prices over the next 4-6 weeks.
Target a bearish move to $25 for the stock.
Beyond Meat (BYND)
Beyond Meat (BYND) reported earnings after the close on Wednesday. Earnings per share missed analysts’ target by $0.17 per share on revenue that was slightly higher than expected. Year-over-year revenue shrank by 18%. That represents the eighth quarter in a row of declining revenue for the company.
In addition to the revenue trend, management guided next quarter’s revenue results lower. Inflation and a tightening consumer are at the heart of the company’s headwinds.
Beyond Meat’s status as a MEME Stock from a few years ago means that its stock relies heavily on technical patterns.
Shares have been trading in a wide range between $5 and $10 since November 2023, a trend that is likely to continue.
Today’s move breaks the stock back below $8, which indicates the next level of support will lie at $6. We saw an aggressive move higher just ahead of earnings as shorts appeared to squeeze out of the stock to avoid risks associated with a continuation to $10. That risk is off the table.
The options market prices Beyond Meat’s options much higher than other sub-$10 stocks due to its history of volatility. This makes put options a less effective way to short the stock.
Watch for support at $6 and then another 18% lower at $5.
Arm Holdings (ARM)
Shares of Arm Holdings (ARM) are only down 2% this afternoon after the stock opened nearly 10% lower this morning.
The move lower is a result of the company’s earnings report, delivered last night. Fr the quarter, Arm Holdings beat expectations and raised the company’s outlook. But unfortunately, that wasn’t enough for investors that had rallied the stock more than 20% higher in the two weeks approaching the report.
With its earnings report behind it, ARM shares are now trading heavily on their technical support and resistance lines.
Today’s bounce from its lows started as the stock traded below the $100 price point. This is typical for a stock trading around $100 given the strong psychological effect of traders buying at prices that end in zeros. The simple rule, the more the zeros the better. In this case $100 is critical support for AMR.
The stock’s intraday strength has been slowed by its 20-day moving average. That short-term trendline sits at $105.
This is literally a battle of the technical that will determine the next 10-20% move in AMR shares. This risk/reward situation currently favors a move lower as a bearish intermediate-term trend is already in place.
