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U.S. Economy

U.S. economy

Catalyst #2: Will the Petrodollar Collapse in 2015?

Will the U.S. petrodollar collapse in 2015? If the world’s largest energy exporter and the world’s largest energy importer have their way, it may.

Watch the video to see how two countries are working to take down the U.S. petrodollar…

U.S. economy

Catalyst #1: How U.S. Debt to China Threatens the Dollar

The U.S. owes foreign governments more money than it ever has – since 2001, the amount has increased six fold to $6.18 trillion.

And U.S. debt to China has been the biggest of all U.S. foreign debt, for seven years running.

This means nations like China hold the power to drastically affect the American economy...

U.S. Economy

The Stock Market Crash of 1929

Stock market crash history series #1: The Stock Market Crash of 1929 is without a doubt the most devastating in U.S. history, in terms of duration and extent.
On Black Tuesday, Oct. 29, 1929, the Dow dropped 12% (30 points) and 16 million stock shares exchanged hands – although for some, there were absolutely no buyers. When the dust settled, more than $30 billion (roughly $350 billion in today's dollars) in wealth had been obliterated. The Dow sank a total 48% from September to November 1929 and kicked off the 10-year-long Great Depression. It lost another 86% from April 1930 to July 1932 in the crash's aftermath.

Behind this crash was a phenomenon that may be more familiar than you'd like...

The Chinese and U.S. Economies Are Bubble-Thin

The Shanghai Composite Index soared by 8% last week to its highest level since 2008 and is up about 130% over the last year.

The Shenzhen Composite Index jumped by 12% last week and is up 166% over the same period and is now trading at 66x earnings according to Bloomberg, three times the level of the Shanghai Index.

How do you spell "bubble" in Chinese?

Full story here...

market rally

Stay Away from This Irrational Indulgence

When I see the market rally mindlessly – as it did on Friday, after the jobs report pushed the jobless rate down to 5.4%- I ask myself a set of questions like the following.

Do investors really think it's going to matter if the Fed raises interest rates by a quarter of a point in September instead of June? Do they really think it's normal that €3 trillion of European debt is yielding less than zero? The Swiss National Bank (Switzerland's Federal Reserve) owns $100 billion of stocks…Is that considered normal?

I can't be any more direct than this - sometimes the plane hits the ground before people have a chance to parachute to safety. Investors trying to ride this market to the bitter end are going to find the end is bitter, indeed...

Economy

Here's How Bad Job Layoffs in the U.S. Are Now

Job layoffs in the U.S. soared 68% in April. Low oil prices pressured companies across all sectors to trim headcount.

U.S.-based employers announced a whopping 61,582 job cuts last month. That was up from 36,594 in March. It was also 53% higher year over year, when the job cut tally was 40,298.

Check out this list of employers that are slashing scary high amounts of jobs from their payrolls...

U.S. economy

10 People to Blame for the 2008-2009 U.S. Stock Market Crash

The 2008-2009 U.S. stock market crash saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge 54% in 17 months.

Housing prices fell 30% from their 2006 peak. The unemployment rate doubled from 5% (7 million Americans unemployed) pre-crisis in 2008, to 10% by the end of 2009 (15 million). And U.S. debt rose from 66% gross domestic product (GDP) to 103% from 2008 to 2012.

To blame was a systemic breakdown that encompassed Wall Street and Washington.

We like to call it the "Washington-Wall Street Corruption Corridor" - and these ten players had key roles...

From Complexity to Chaos, From a Trickle to a Flood

As a volatility trader, I loved seeing stocks drop 2% last week after having risen 3%. But as a credit trader and student of market behavior, I know all too well that this type of volatility is a forecast of stormy seas ahead.

Markets were disturbed last week by more evidence that the economy is weak, in spite of the fact that a steady stream of lousy economic news this year has done little to prevent stocks from reaching new highs.

With first quarter GDP increasingly likely to come in at well below 1% - a number that certainly can't be blamed on the weather alone - investors are now starting to sweat. Here's what they'll do next...

The Fed

Use This Strategy to Profit Before the Markets Head South

For the last six months, I have been warning that economic growth is faltering. In November of last year, I predicted that the U.S. economy would experience a "growth scare" in 2015.

This week, we learned that the Atlanta Fed is tracking first quarter GDP growth at a mere 0.3% and that the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) has significantly downgraded its growth forecast.

Bond yields have plunged and commodity prices have collapsed. Only stocks have failed to figure out that low growth is a recipe for coming disaster.

The Week in Review

Equities Are Riding High on Thin Air

I am often asked by the investors in my funds, "When will markets finally start paying attention to the signs of weak economic growth?" I tell them that the consensus answer is that bull markets only end when the Fed starts aggressively raising interest rates.

I also tell them that when interest rates are at zero, as they have been for the last seven years, the normal answer may not apply. In the meantime, stocks keep hitting new record highs while bonds and commodities are telling a very different story about the state of the economy…

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