Archives for July 2010

July 2010 - Page 9 of 11 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

With "Risk Off" Trades Waning, U.S. Stocks Could Be Ready to Reverse Course

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There are new signs that institutional traders are preparing for a change in direction of the U.S. dollar and European euro that may have big implications for U.S. stocks.

For months, the winning trade was to short stocks, the euro, and commodities, while buying gold, bonds and the dollar. Commentators labeled this the "risk off" trade since gold and bonds were seen as safe-haven assets. But when crowd mentality is at work, and sentiment – not fundamentals – is driving the bids, there really isn't such a thing as a "safe" trade. It's all speculation.

Take yesterday (Tuesday), for example: After surging 131 points, or 1.4%, out of the gate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average relinquished most of its advance to close just 16 points higher at 9,702.98. Meanwhile the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which had climbed 1.5% to 1,038 in early trading, ended the day just 0.18% higher.

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Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's Financial Reform Query

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With U.S. consumers still feeling the sting of the global financial crisis, consumer advocacy groups are claiming that they snagged a win with the financial reform measure approved last month by a joint House-Senate congressional committee.

The bill next goes to U.S. President Barack Obama, who is expected to sign the measure into law.

"It's historic legislation," Michael Calhoun, president of the Center for Responsible Lending, told ABC News. "It's a big win for consumers."

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Six Ways to Invest in Korea - Asia's Can't-Miss Market

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With the U.S recovery looking a bit iffy after last week's unemployment report, Japan and Britain battling huge budget problems and Europe in trouble because of the Greek debt crisis, investors have quite naturally shifted their focus to Asia.

But even there the pickings seem a bit slim. Asian stalwarts China and India show signs of overheating (India more so than China). Taiwan and Singapore – both excellent markets – seem pretty fully valued right now.

That leaves us with one Asian market whose economy is enjoying well-balanced growth, whose government is a model of competence and efficiency and whose stock market is surprisingly reasonably valued.

I'm talking about South Korea.

To discover the five essential Korea profit plays, please read on…

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Government Spending Cutbacks Increase Odds of Double-Dip Recession

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The odds of slower economic growth or even a double-dip recession are increasing as industrial countries, led by the United States & United Kingdom, embark on the most aggressive government spending cutbacks and tightening of fiscal policy in four decades.

As they reduce or eliminate stimulus programs installed in reaction to the Great Recession that began in December 2007, governments are gambling they can pare debt without strangling an economic recovery.

Nations will reduce their primary budget deficits, excluding interest payments, by 1.6 percentage points next year, the most since the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began keeping records in 1970, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) economists. The budget squeeze will lop 0.9 percentage point off growth in 2011.

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We Want to Hear From You: Are Retailers' Stimulus Measures Persuading You to Spend?

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Faced with a wheezing economy that can't seem to heal, big U.S. retailers like Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP) are creating their own stimulus measures to lure hesitant shoppers back into stores.

Through such tactics as loan programs, credit card rebates and gift card giveaways, top retail chains are rolling out promotional strategies, hoping to break consumers out of their anti-spending doldrums.

"A lot of the government programs have come to an end," David Bassuk, an expert from financial consultancy AlixPartners, told The New York Times. "So retailers are taking it upon themselves to do everything they can to get the consumer to spend, even opening up their wallets to give money back to the consumer."   

Sam's Club is taking an unusual approach: It's offering loans of $5,000 to $25,000 to its members, backed by the Small Business Administration. Superior Financial Group is managing the loans and will give Sam's members a $100 discount on the loan application fee and lower interest rates.

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History Shows Stock Market Plunge May Just Be Par for the Course

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Although the stock market plunge last week was certainly unsettling, history and a slew of positive leading indicators show that this may just be part of a normal pattern with better news ahead.

Stocks were hammered on Tuesday as a negative revision to an economic report out of China and fears over European bank funding set off a global firestorm of selling. A very weak consumer confidence report didn't help matters.

The major U.S. stock indices fell through critical support levels, with the S&P 500 returning to levels first reached last August. That's almost an entire year of stock market appreciation out the window.

In the end, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7%, the S&P 500 lost 3.1%, the NASDAQ lost 3.9%, and the Russell 2000 lost 4%. Large-cap stocks outside the United States fell 3.5%, while emerging market stocks fell 4%. Some of the European exchanges fell the most, including iShares MCSI Spain Index ETF (NYSE: EWP), down 5%, and iShares MCSI Switzerland Index Fund ETF (NYSE: EWL), down 6%.

Click here to see how the stock market plunge fits a historical pattern…

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Inflation Isn't Dead, Just Sleeping - And TIPS Can Protect You When It Awakens

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Investors are always on the lookout for hot tips. The best tips highlight investments that pack a big potential profit punch, but that haven't yet started their move.

That's just what we have for you here.

We're not talking about the "inside scoop" on some obscure stock. What we're referring to are government-backed "TIPS" – or, as they're more formally known, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.

Admittedly, inflation hasn't been a major concern of late. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was actually down by 0.2% in May, extending a 0.1% drop in April, while May's core inflation – which is the CPI measured without the volatile food and energy components – was just 0.1% higher. That's why many market analysts and media pundits are now saying deflation is much more of a worry for U.S. markets than inflation.

However, many of Money Morning's top experts – including Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald and Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson – disagree with that assessment. Recognizing the inevitable inflationary impact of increasing deficit spending, growing federal debt, rising state and local taxes and a weakening U.S. dollar, they see renewed upward price pressure not too far down the road.

That makes this the perfect time to learn about TIPS and how they can protect you when inflation again rears its ugly head.

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Buy, Sell or Hold: Even After a Near-30% Gain Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) Still Has Room to Run

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I first recommended Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) on June 1, 2009. At the time of our recommendation, our price target was a minimum of $32. The stock is now trading just above $35 today – a 27% increase.

What's more is that Campbell, which boasts a strong brand and above-average international sales potential, is poised to keep its winning streak intact.

The market sometimes offers us compelling propositions, like it did last year, when the stock inexplicably sold off. We took ready advantage of the situation. Campbell Soup has a very large, stable and increasing cashflow. It is so stable that it is almost boring. In fact, this company's stability qualifies it more as a dividend play than anything else.

In the two consecutive quarters following our initial recommendation, Campbell Soup torched estimates, as analysts on Wall Street had not caught on to our emerging markets growth story. The Street caught on in the last quarter but still has not fully recognized this company's potential.

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Australia Reduces Mining "Super Tax," Reviving Profitability of Resource Sector

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Australian mining companies declared a huge win today (Friday) when the government announced the proposed mining "super tax" would be reduced, prompting some companies to reactivate shelved projects and reopen merger and acquisition talks.

Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard agreed on a compromise plan that would reduce the planned tax to 30% of profits from iron ore and coal, and 40% tax on oil and natural gas, down from the originally proposed 40% tax on all resources. The new plan, called the mineral resource rent tax, would also raise the tax's trigger level to profits that exceed a 12% rate of return instead of 6%.

"The reduction in the headline rate is an amazing concession," John Robinson, chairman of Global Mining Investments Ltd., told Bloomberg. "It's certainly better than I had expected."

Mining companies would be allowed to claim depreciation on their assets based on market value instead of book value.

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Unemployment Report Shows Sluggish Recovery Will Take Years to Replace Jobs Lost in Great Recession

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Unemployment figures released Friday confirmed that the U.S. economy is still recovering, but they also showed it will take years to replace the 8 million jobs lost during the Great Recession.

And until meaningful hiring takes place, consumers are unlikely to loosen their purse strings, the key to putting the economy back on track to full recovery.

Employment fell in June for the first time this year, reflecting a drop in federal census workers and a smaller-than-forecast gain in private hiring.

Payrolls declined by 125,000 as the government cut 225,000 temporary workers conducting the 2010 census, Labor Department figures in Washington showed. Economists projected a decline of 130,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Private employers added 83,000 to their payrolls.

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