Why I'm Calling a Market Top

Party like it's 1999.

I'm not talking about celebrating the new millennium all over again. I'm talking about celebrating the markets roaring ahead, like they did in 1999.

Just remember: There will be a price to pay. There was then, and there will be again.

Look what happened on Monday morning. We got some weaker-than-expected economic numbers and the Dow cut its gains in half... for about a minute.

Then it was like, oh, wait a minute, those bad numbers are good numbers for the stock market, because the Federal Reserve won't be tapering any time soon if the economy is tapering. And the Dow roared up by about 65 points... in about a minute.

So go ahead and party like it's 1999. But if you get hammered by the coming crash, you've got no one to blame but yourself. And it is coming.

We've all been here before. This time it just looks different, but it ain't.

The only thing that's different is that the Fed is ahead of this rally. They caused the rally. Don't forget, it is actually the Fed's articulated policy to be driving people into risk assets. They want equity markets higher to "create a wealth effect."

Think about that.

The Federal Reserve has commandeered free markets in order to execute part deux of its "dual mandate." Which in case you forgot, while the Fed is supposed to be in charge of making the porridge (inflation and deflation) not too hot, and not too cold, but just right, back in 1977 they got another mandate from Congress: to "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment."

Because Congress is useless - unless they're using their offices to promote their re-election - they passed the buck to the Fed on job creation in America.

That's crazy, but it figures. If unemployment is high, Congress can blame the Fed for tightening the money supply and causing recessions and use their offices to yell and scream that the Fed is harming Americans. And, of course, if we have full employment or robust times, Congress says, look how good we are to you.

So how does the Fed plan on getting unemployed Americans back to work?

They are creating the wealth effect. Which is so amazing.

By flooding bankrupt banks with money - which they don't want to lend out, but will park with all sorts of short-term borrowers, including themselves, who then park that money in short-term investments (short-term means they can sell them on a dime), meaning stocks, which makes the markets go higher and higher to new all-time highs -the feeling of wealth that the 1% who own most of the stocks enjoys will actually trickle down into everybody's pockets... who reach in and find nothing, but because they are feeling wealthy will take out their credit cards and spend, spend, spend.

It's the most brilliant formula ever.

Except it won't work.

It just feels like it's working. But that is about to pass.

We are about to discover that quantitative easing has diminishing returns; and worse.

I am a bull, but I recognize we are all in a china shop.

We are getting close, very close, to a top. We may have just gotten there. But if we didn't, the next new all-time high will probably be the last one for a while.

It takes a lot of guts to call the top of a market. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

Don't worry about me being wrong, because I'm not saying sell everything. I'm still in. You should stay in, too.

In Capital Wave Forecast, we've been taken out of several positions as I've continuously raised our stops. We have gotten hit on several and gladly taken handsome profits on almost every position. And we've reapplied some of that capital into new positions, but they are defensive.

This is for that one reader out there who recently complained that all my "indictments" weren't making him any money and he wanted me to provide some "insights" so he could make some money.

So, this is for you, and you, and you, and you, because there are a lot of you who might want to know what I'm doing in the markets.

Now you have it. I'm taking profits and tightening my stops. I'm redeploying some capital into betting against the Australian dollar and betting that high-yield bonds and leveraged loans are near a top and prices could come down, maybe hard.

I'm still dancing in the stock market until the music stops.

It's still playing, but if I'm not mistaken, it's tapering off.

Be careful out there.

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About the Author

Shah Gilani boasts a financial pedigree unlike any other. He ran his first hedge fund in 1982 from his seat on the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange. When options on the Standard & Poor's 100 began trading on March 11, 1983, Shah worked in "the pit" as a market maker.

The work he did laid the foundation for what would later become the VIX - to this day one of the most widely used indicators worldwide. After leaving Chicago to run the futures and options division of the British banking giant Lloyd's TSB, Shah moved up to Roosevelt & Cross Inc., an old-line New York boutique firm. There he originated and ran a packaged fixed-income trading desk, and established that company's "listed" and OTC trading desks.

Shah founded a second hedge fund in 1999, which he ran until 2003.

Shah's vast network of contacts includes the biggest players on Wall Street and in international finance. These contacts give him the real story - when others only get what the investment banks want them to see.

Today, as editor of Hyperdrive Portfolio, Shah presents his legion of subscribers with massive profit opportunities that result from paradigm shifts in the way we work, play, and live.

Shah is a frequent guest on CNBC, Forbes, and MarketWatch, and you can catch him every week on Fox Business's Varney & Co.

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