It's getting to be crunch time in the negotiations between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.
Despite an ill-advised attempt by U.S. senators to scuttle the talks, it's clear the negotiations in Geneva will continue.
Now, TV pundits have taken to the airwaves suggesting that an agreement would flood the market with Iranian oil.
Combined with production surpluses in the United States and elsewhere, the "instant" prognosticators are pushing their Armageddon pricing scenario again, putting additional pressure on oil prices.
Meanwhile, those playing the new "Iranian card" are shorting oil even further.
It's just the latest example of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It works like this...
Chicken Little of "The Sky Is Falling Brokerage" hits the airwaves warning of a collapse in prices, only to earn huge off-camera profits based on what he just said.
Meanwhile, average investors are left holding the bag as share prices fall.
There's a big problem with all of this "instant analysis," and I'm going to show you what it is - and how you can resist the temptation to try to catch this "falling knife" altogether...
There is no question that the sanctions designed to limit Iran's access to global oil sales and finance have had a sobering impact in Tehran.
While oil exports have continued to countries like China and India, the overall effect of the drastic cut in Iranian oil exports has been nothing short of a disaster for the domestic economy.
In addition, given the indirect way in which these exports must be financed - since Iranian access to Western sources of hard currency has been cut - even those consignments that can be sold cost more on both ends, further reducing the effective revenues to Iran and exacerbating the price tag.
For Tehran, therefore, an accord would allow more oil exports to be phased in, offering the chance of securing badly needed revenues. On the other side of the table, a verifiable move to end its suspected nuclear weapons program (which Iran has always denied) would yield additional regional security, welcomed by the West.
But the truth is that any accord reached in Geneva must overcome a profound amount of mistrust and animosity against the West in general - and the U.S. in particular.
That hostility has been all too clear since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew the Shah and brought in the ayatollahs as political leaders.
For many Iranians, the hatred of the U.S. goes all the way back to 1953, and a CIA-led MI-6-inspired coup against one of the most beloved populist leaders of the twentieth century - Mohammad Mossadeq.
But that's not the biggest piece being missed by the talking heads on TV...
There's another very important caveat: The "Iranian card" will have no short- or medium-term impact on oil prices.
Even assuming that an agreement is forged in Geneva - a very big if, considering the fate of previous attempts - there will need to be a very protracted process set in motion before any sanctions are lifted and even one additional drop of Iranian oil makes it to market.
For one thing, the sanctions have wreaked havoc on Iran's production potential, which is already derived from the oldest continuously operating oil fields in the Middle East. It will take time to make arrangements for essential replacement parts, refurbishment, engineering, and related matters before any of this production can be ramped up. That won't happen overnight.
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For another, the Iranian shipping and delivery systems related to oil exports are in a shambles.
Even aside from contracting for tankers and port availability, the current sanctions apply to both shipping financiers and insurance companies. Cutting the Gordian Knot will take a considerable amount of time and new banking arrangements... even if outside shippers are convinced this trade will be profitable.
Finally, the market share that used to be met by Iranian volume in several global markets (especially in Europe) has since been replaced by other sources given the current surplus supply. What's more, the price is already depressed well beyond what Iran needs to stay afloat, and further discounting it to compete will merely make matters worse.
Iran is one of those OPEC nations (Venezuela and Nigeria being others) that need oil prices to be well north of $100 a barrel if they have any hopes of balancing their budget. In fact, one estimate has put the need as high as $142 a barrel - almost $90 higher than current prices in London for Brent benchmark crude.
But the biggest reality of all is in the hands of the West. Any accord will take time to finalize.
If that ever occurs, there will certainly be benchmark requirements in place that Iran will have to meet and verify before any oil is exported. So the relaxing of sanctions will occur in stages over time.
Of course, all of these real world truths can't be explained in a 60-second sound bite on TV. So some of the talking heads would rather simplify and distort the issue, since it's in the best interest of their bank accounts.
So, what else is new?
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