Editor's Note: Keith originally shared this insight back in 2015, when rate hikes, disappointing earnings, and geopolitical uncertainty fueled market volatility. Though the reasons for today's renewed turbulence are different, Keith's reasoning for staying in the markets is as relevant as ever. Check it out…
My good friend Dennis, a Seattle-based TV studio producer, pulled me aside after I'd wrapped up an appearance on FOX Business Network to voice a sentiment I hear a lot these days:
…I'm almost 60 and scared to death by what's happening today – terrorists, a looming rate hike, slowing earnings, global growth cratering.
He rattled off half a dozen items bugging him, counting each on his fingers. Then he leaned in and quietly said…
…it makes me want to sell it all.
If you're like Dennis, you're not alone.
But here's the thing… no matter how grim the global situation is or even becomes, indiscriminately selling is exactly what you don't want to do.
It's one of the worst possible decisions any investor can make and, ultimately, one that will cost investors billions in lost profits.
Today we're going to talk about why and, because this is not a simple subject, I'm going to prove it to you, too.
Roller Coaster Stock Markets DON'T Have to Mean Roller Coaster Returns
We've talked many times about the importance of buying low and selling high. It's the path to higher returns.
So why is it that so many investors get it wrong?
The answer comes down to a phenomenon known as "recency bias." That's what they call it when investors make decisions based on what they see in the rearview mirror. If the markets are going up, they buy. If they're going down, they sell.
Simply put, they base their expectations for what's next on what just happened. That's like trying to bet which t-shirt a three-year-old will wear tomorrow, and about as successful.
In fact, there's very little correlation between past stock market returns and actual future returns.
Moreover, YiLi Chien, a senior economist for the St. Louis Fed, studied equity markets from 1984 to 2012 and found that the correlation between past market behavior is almost perfectly negative over time.
That jives with the DALBAR data we covered here in showing that individual investors who try to time the markets wind up damning themselves to terrible returns by falling far behind over time – nearly 200% behind, in fact.
People tell me frequently that they don't care. They want to sell anyway because they can afford to wait.
Respectfully, no they can't.
About the Author
Keith is a seasoned market analyst and professional trader with more than 37 years of global experience. He is one of very few experts to correctly see both the dot.bomb crisis and the ongoing financial crisis coming ahead of time - and one of even fewer to help millions of investors around the world successfully navigate them both. Forbes hailed him as a "Market Visionary." He is a regular on FOX Business News and Yahoo! Finance, and his observations have been featured in Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, WIRED, and MarketWatch. Keith previously led The Money Map Report, Money Map's flagship newsletter, as Chief Investment Strategist, from 20007 to 2020. Keith holds a BS in management and finance from Skidmore College and an MS in international finance (with a focus on Japanese business science) from Chaminade University. He regularly travels the world in search of investment opportunities others don't yet see or understand.