Share This Article

Facebook LinkedIn
Twitter Reddit
Print Email
Pinterest Gmail
Yahoo
Money Morning
×
  • Invest
    • Best Stocks to Buy
    • Stock Forecasts
    • Stocks to Sell Now
    • Stock Market Predictions
    • Technology Stocks
    • Best REITs to Buy Now
    • IPO Stocks
    • Penny Stocks
    • Dividend Stocks
    • Cryptocurrencies
    • Cannabis Investing
    • Angel Investing
  • Trade
    • How to Trade Options
    • Best Trades to Make Now
    • Options Trading Strategies
    • Weekly Trade Recommendations
  • Retire
    • Income Investing Guide
    • Retirement Articles
  • More
    • Money Morning LIVE
    • Special Investing Reports
    • Our ELetters
    • Our Premium Services
    • Videos
    • Meet Our Experts
    • Profit Academy
Login My Member Benefits Archives Research Your Team About Us FAQ
  • Invest
    • Best Stocks to Buy
    • Stock Forecasts
    • Stocks to Sell Now
    • Stock Market Predictions
    • Technology Stocks
    • Best REITs to Buy Now
    • IPO Stocks
    • Penny Stocks
    • Dividend Stocks
    • Cryptocurrencies
    • Cannabis Investing
    • Angel Investing
    ×
  • Trade
    • How to Trade Options
    • Best Trades to Make Now
    • Options Trading Strategies
    • Weekly Trade Recommendations
    ×
  • Retire
    • Income Investing Guide
    • Retirement Articles
    ×
  • More
    • Money Morning LIVE
    • Special Investing Reports
    • Our ELetters
    • Our Premium Services
    • Videos
    • Meet Our Experts
    • Profit Academy
    ×
  • Subscribe
Enter stock ticker or keyword
×
Join 100,000+ Like-Minded Investors Today
Twitter
Tags: Budget Deficit, Dow Jones, Election 2012, Federal Reserve, job approval rating, U.S. Economy, unemployment

Election 2012: President Obama at the Mercy of U.S. Economy

By David Zeiler, Associate Editor, Money Morning • @DavidGZeiler • June 27, 2012

View Comments

Start the conversation

Comment on This Story Click here to cancel reply.

Or to contact Money Morning Customer Service, click here.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Some HTML is OK

U.S. President Barack Obama's chances for re-election in 2012 are increasingly tied to the fate of the U.S. economy, poll results show.

Meanwhile, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney hasn't gotten as much benefit from the weak economy as one would expect - a sign of his inability to connect with voters.

The past month has not been kind to the U.S. economy - or President Obama's standing in the polls.

The barrage of bad news has included:

  • An uptick in unemployment from 8.1% to 8.2%;
  • A 700-plus point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since May 1;
  • A reduction in the U.S. Federal Reserve 2012 economic growth forecast by half a percentage point;
  • And a deflating Labor Department announcement that just 69,000 jobs were created in May.

"The economy is going through a rough patch, and that more than anything is going to determine President Obama's future," said Ipsos pollster Chris Jackson in comments on a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in early June. "People's unhappiness with the economy carries over pretty directly to the president's numbers, and we see those weakening."

In that poll, President Obama's job approval rating slipped from 50% in May to 47%, and those saying the country is on the wrong track jumped 6 points to 68%.

Meanwhile, Romney gained 6 percentage points in the head-to-head matchup, making the Election 2012 race a statistical dead heat (Obama 45%, Romney 44%).

Although President Obama's argument that he inherited economic problems too severe to fix in three years resonates with his liberal base, the moderates and independents likely to decide who sits in the Oval Office next year aren't so sure.

In that Reuters poll, the president's approval rating among independent voters plunged from 48% to 35%. And that was just over one month.

"Independents are especially susceptible to economic pressures, which is why we see them bouncing all over the place in their approval of the president," Jackson said. "The finding that he is not doing that well with them this month is something for Obama to worry about."

Sign up for SMS so you never miss special events, exclusive offers, and weekly bonus trades.
Election 2012: Romney's Conundrum

But the polls show Romney has reason to worry as well. Given the sorry state of the U.S. economy, one would expect Mitt Romney to be leading the president.

Yet Romney remains an underdog in the Election 2012 race.

For one thing, voters simply like President Obama better than Romney.

A June poll by the Pew Research Center showed that only 41% of voters view Romney favorably, compared to 50% for President Obama. And when asked who better connects with ordinary Americans, 59% pick the president; just 28% pick Romney.

In fact, voters rank President Obama well ahead of Romney in categories ranging from "Good judgment in a crisis" to "Willing to take an unpopular stand." Romney only prevails when voters are asked who would do a better job of improving the economy (see chart).

That means if the U.S. economy starts to show any signs of life before November, voters will likely stick with President Obama.

And while a tanking economy could deliver the White House to Romney, a safer plan would be to figure out how to better connect with voters.

Otherwise, Romney's strategy hinges on using the lousy economy as a political truncheon, which plays right into the "insensitive rich guy" image that Romney needs to shed.

That's a dicey proposition. Already last week Democrats were accusing Romney of "rooting" for bad economic news.

U.S. Economy Top Issue

One thing that's clear from the polls is that voters consider economic issues by far the most important in the Election 2012 race.

In the Pew poll, jobs was named the top concern by 35% of the respondents. Coming in second was the federal budget deficit at 23%. Healthcare was third (19%), Social Security fourth (11%) and immigration fifth (5%).

Voters also hold a very bleak view of the overall U.S. economy. In a recent Associated Press-Gfk poll, two out of three described the economy as "poor."

That should be an opportunity for both candidates to win votes by selling their visions to fix the economy.

Admittedly that's a bit more of a challenge for an incumbent president who has struggled to do just that for more than three years. But as a Republican, Romney is saddled with the legacy of President George W. Bush, under whom the economic crisis began.

What's more, after years of partisan bickering and inaction in Washington, many Americans are skeptical either man can fix the U.S. economy.

"I think we are on the wrong track," Doss Comer, an independent voter who lives in Jacksonville, NC, told the Associated Press. "We're not getting anywhere. We're not growing. The unemployment rate just spiked up again."

But he went on: "I don't trust Romney because of what he's doing. He's telling his business experience, that he was an investor in business. ... I don't think he has the right background any more than Obama."

Related Articles and News:

  • Money Morning:
    Romneynomics: What You Can Expect if Mitt Romney Wins the Election
  • Money Morning:
    Obamanomics: What You Can Expect if President Obama Wins the Election
  • Money Morning:
    How Bain Capital Could Sink Mitt Romney
  • Bloomberg News:
    Obama Leads in Poll as Voters View Romney as Out of Touch
  • Pew Research Center:
    GOP Holds Early Turnout Edge, But Little Enthusiasm for Romney
  • Associated Press/GfK:
    June 2012 Poll Results
  • Time Swampland:
    Obama Campaign: Mitt Romney Is ‘Rooting’ for a Worse Economy
  • The Hill:
    Poll: Obama holds lead, majority of voters say Romney ‘out of touch'
  • The Hill:
    Poll: Weak economy hits Obama approval rating

Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

David ZeilerDavid Zeiler

About the Author

Browse David's articles | View David's research services

David Zeiler, Associate Editor forĀ Money MorningĀ at Money Map Press,Ā has been a journalist for more than 35 years, including 18 spent atĀ The Baltimore Sun. He has worked as a writer, editor, and page designer at different times in his career. He's interviewed a number of well-known personalities - ranging from punk rock icon Joey Ramone to Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak.

Over the course of his journalistic career, Dave has covered many diverse subjects. Since arriving atĀ Money MorningĀ in 2011, he has focused primarily on technology. He's an expert on both Apple and cryptocurrencies. He started writing about Apple forĀ The SunĀ in the mid-1990s, and had an Apple blog onĀ The Sun's web site from 2007-2009. Dave's been writing about Bitcoin since 2011 - long before most people had even heard of it. He even mined it for a short time.

Dave has a BA in English and Mass Communications from Loyola University Maryland.

… Read full bio

Login
guest
guest
1 Comment
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
peter chukwujekwu
peter chukwujekwu
10 years ago

interesting article !

0
Reply


Latest News

June 6, 2023 • By Garrett Baldwin

Postcards: These Four Stocks Are Showing Real Momentum

June 6, 2023 • By Alex Kagin

Apple’s New Headset Drops, Crypto Melts Down, and Another Economic Indicator Bites the Dust

June 5, 2023 • By Nick Black

This Tech Stock is Poised for Pick and Shovel Profits from the AI Revolution Ā 
Trending Stories
ABOUT MONEY MORNING

Money Morning gives you access to a team of market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.

QUICK LINKS
About Us COVID-19 Announcements How Money Morning Works FAQs Contact Us Search Article Archive Forgot Username/Password Archives Profit Academy Research Your Team Videos Text Messaging Terms of Use
FREE NEWSLETTERS
Total Wealth Research Power Profit Trades Profit Takeover Penny Hawk Trading Today Midday Momentum Pump Up the Close
PREMIUM SERVICES
Money Map Press Home Money Map Report Fast Fortune Club Weekly Cash Clock Night Trader Microcurrency Trader Hyperdrive Portfolio Rocket Wealth Initiative Extreme Profit Hunters Profit Revolution Quantum Data Profits Live Trading Alliance Trade The Close Inside Money Trader Expiration Trader Flashpoint Trader Darknet Hyper Momentum Trader Alpha Accelerators Weekly Profit Cycles Brutus Alerts Resource Traders Alliance

Ā© 2023 Money Morning All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning.

Address: 1125 N Charles St. | Baltimore, MD, 21201 | USA | Phone: 888.384.8339 | Disclaimer | Sitemap | Privacy Policy | Whitelist Us | Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

wpDiscuz