Today at 3 p.m., This Is What OPEC's Announcement Will Be

The market is anxiously awaiting today's OPEC meeting at its Secretariat headquarters in Vienna.

But I'm not.

We have a virtual guarantee that the policy to extend the cap/cut in production will continue.

But that's not the real issue.

The combination of analyst angst prior to such a continuation and the slowly building production levels among U.S. operators is providing a short-term pause in the rise of oil prices.

Even with the 1.6% pullback over the past two trading sessions, WTI (West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark crude rate for futures contracts cut in New York) is still up by more than 2% for the week and a hefty 7.2% for the month.

In short, there is little genuine risk of a cascading pricing curve setting in because there are simply no underlying factors to justify such a move.

But volatility in a rather narrow range remains a possibility.

Nonetheless, today's extension will not be entirely good news.

Two High-Profile Oil Scandals Every Investor Needs to Know About

Achieving a level playing field is sometimes all in the eye of the beholder.

You see, an ongoing issue that has perplexed both oil and natural gas investors and shareholders alike has found its way into the advisories I'm providing to my global investing clients here in Paris.

It involves the ability to value actual assets following a wave of serious corruption revelations.

All of these involve putting a price on trades once oil moves into the wider market.

It all started a month ago when, on the same day, two revelations hit, both centering on continuing legal challenges in trading exchange transactions.

Both connect to oil and may prove to be merely the tip of the iceberg when it comes to oil trading scandals.

Meet the "Green" Hospital That's Fueled by a Millennia-Old Energy Technology

Edgerton, Wis., is a small community of fewer than 6,000 people southeast of Madison, the state capital.

A few years ago, the management of its local hospital looked around for ways to reduce rising heating and cooling costs.

The facility was just opening, and the hospital needed ways to contain expenses.

What it came up with may just be a model that could be applied throughout the country.

Edgerton Hospital decided to use an innovative form of energy that has been around for over a millennium. And so far, the results have been impressive.

Last month marked five years since the hospital has opened. Thus far, the amount of money it has saved in natural gas costs has already paid for the about $850,000 cost of the system…

Six years ahead of schedule.

Beginning this month, the building is saving $15,000 in energy with prospects that the total savings may be improving.

Now Congress Is Playing Favorites in the Energy Market

With all the rhetoric about governing for all Americans, sometimes politics is just about picking winners and losers.

Take the ongoing soap opera of who in the energy sector is likely to gain or lose benefits from the current congressional tax plan.

While retaining at least $15 billion in tax subsidies for fossil fuel producers (coal, crude oil, natural gas), the House of Representatives plan would slash support for both renewables and the electric car industry.

The primary moves criticized by both the renewable community and environmentalists are the proposed changes to the renewable electricity production tax credit (PTC).

This credit provides benefits to generation of wind, solar, geothermal, and other types of renewable energy.

Now, the PTC is already scheduled to be phased out in three years (by 2020).

Both wind and solar energy producers have been factoring this into forward guidance as more cost savings are introduced into the renewable sector.

But the House tax plan would accelerate the cut by more than a third. An analysis just completed by an industry player concludes the proposed change could reduce the credit's value by up to 45%.

The renewables industry is quick to point out that the PTC has created hundreds of thousands of jobs nationwide, spawned significant ancillary economic investment, and resulted in the United States becoming a major center for wind and solar power development.

But apparently that's not enough, and it's now on the chopping block – as far as the House is concerned.

The Senate, however, may be planning something else.

Oil Prices Hit My December Targets Early; Here Are Two Ways to Profit

As of yesterday morning, crude oil prices were holding tight near a two-year high. Despite the misgivings of short-sellers who use falling oil as a means to make money, the global market has finally stabilized.

As I write this, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) was at $57.33 a barrel, nicely above the upper limit of the end-of-year $55 to $57 range I forecast last month. The consensus indicates our next resistance level is around $60.

Meanwhile, London-set Brent is trading at $63.97, convincingly higher than my Dec. 31 range of $58 to $60 a barrel.

This adds up to one fact…

We're now in the perfect environment to make some nice money with the presence of two crucial ingredients: a degree of predictability and low volatility.

The Surprising Secret Behind the First Subsidy-Free Solar Farm

In an increasing number of regions in the United States, solar (and wind) power can produce electricity at the same cost – or lower – than more traditional fuels, like coal or natural gas.

We call it reaching "grid parity" here in the business.

The catch, however, is what happens when government subsidies are removed from the calculation.

That's why what happened at the end of September in the UK may be a sign of things to come across the pond here in the United States.

See, the British just brought a new solar power project online without relying on subsidies. Only the market will dictate what this power plant gets paid.

You Won't Guess Who Just Saved America's Biofuels

With all the focus directed to solar and wind power, it's often overlooked that renewables also include turning biomass into biofuels.

And the latter has one decisive advantage over solar or wind (or geothermal for that matter)…

Biomass remains the only renewable source that can be turned directly into liquid fuel.

That makes biofuels the only "renewable" power source that can directly fuel today's cars, planes, and ships.

But how that translates into what we see in the marketplace has been a source of friction for years. This involves the system created 12 years ago that mandates how much ethanol must be mixed in the gasoline sold at retail nationwide.

That policy has been a political football, pitting oil-producing states – who want as much petroleum-based product in gasoline as possible – against agricultural states – who want as much biofuel as possible to be used.

The former states claim the mandated biofuel in gasoline restrains oil drilling. The latter regard the standards as a necessary support for farmers.

That fight is now coming to a head, but it looks like biofuel farmers and companies are safe.

Why Oil and Gas Prices Are About to "Unlink"

Almost from the start of modern trading of futures contracts in the early 1980s, there's been an expected trading connection between crude oil and natural gas.

Of course, the parallel between the two had tacitly existed much earlier.

It was usually calculated in "Btu equivalences," meaning that the convenience of moving from gas to oil (or vice versa) was summarized by how much heat energy each could generate (measured in British thermal units – Btu).

That both energy resources happened to be drilled in essentially the same way and, even more so, tended to be found together only accentuated the equivalence.

Given these factors, market prices often changed in lockstep.

But over the past two decades, the traditional assumptions underlying this connection have been predicated on a factor that's quickly going away…

Which is why I now see oil and gas prices diverging.

This New Oil Crisis Could Set the Middle East on Fire

After over 40 years in the energy business, more than two decades of that with a parallel career in intelligence, I regularly witness the impact of global developments on the energy markets.

So it's hardly surprising that I often address geopolitical events here in Money Morning and Oil & Energy Investor.

Currently, situations in Latin America (Venezuela), Asia (the South China Sea crisis), and Africa (ongoing civil conflict in Libya and Nigeria) show how widespread the geopolitical impact is on energy prices and availability.

Each one either is, or could easily, spike oil price volatility.

But the instability in a different region remains the biggest single factor in how the two sectors interact: the Middle East.

There, two significant events unfolded over the past week. Each is certain to have an impact on how crude oil trades in the near term.

The curious decertification of JCPOA (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, more popularly known as the "Iranian nuclear accord") by President Trump was followed in short order by the ominous hostilities between Iraq and Kurdistan over the status of the city and region of Kirkuk.

Both impact the northern Persian Gulf, already a region with a short fuse.

The toppling of Raqqa, the self-styled ISIS capital, may be underway in Syria, but the ongoing cross-border disagreements have already spread elsewhere.