The Apple share price will reach $200 24 months from now.
That's what I told FOX Business anchor Stuart Varney Monday when he asked me how I felt about Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL).
But here's what I couldn't say: the Apple share price could get there even faster.
The Cupertino giant sold nearly 1 million watches on a pre-order basis last Friday and may sell as many as 20 million units within 12 months – and probably closer to double that once production ramps up. At between $350 and $17,000 each, it may not move the needle much on a company that booked $182 billion last year… but that's not really the point.
What matters is that the Apple Watch may be a "cell phone killer."
Not a lot of people are thinking about this right now. To them the Apple Watch is another timekeeping device, a duplicate smartphone, or simply a gimmick used in conjunction with your iPhone.
I see things very differently.
For me, the real mojo will hit about six to 12 months from now. That's when we'll see any number of really innovative applications roll out from the likes of BMW, Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq: FB), United Continental Holdings Inc. (NYSE: UAL), and others.
How the Watch Will Drive Up the Apple Share Price
My expectation is that companies like these (who have been toiling away under conditions akin to the Manhattan Project in WWII) are going to produce a revenue model that's not yet fully understood.
I can see medical reminders for everything from appointments to medications on board. Already you can store QR codes and load your Starbucks Corp. (Nasdaq: SBUX) card, bypassing your wallet.
And Apple Watch includes the Passbook app imported from the iPhone, which keeps your airline tickets, coupons, boarding passes, and movie tickets easily at hand.
The watch could even take on a life of its own, becoming a Star Trek-like communicator capable of linking, exchanging, storing, and acting upon all near-field data.
Beam me up… at least to Cupertino. The Apple Watch makes a trusty Submariner look… well, dumb.
Remember, the Apple Watch is part of a much bigger play to establish the Apple ecosphere. The idea is to help users share the same data across multiple platforms free of charge. That, in turn, naturally aids in both customer acquisition and retention.
Factor in a cash war chest of about $178 billion, and Apple's intuitively usable devices suddenly take on a new perspective. It makes the Apple share price look dirt cheap today and a $1 trillion market cap absolutely obtainable.
If you don't yet own Apple stock, now's a great time to add to shares and tuck them away.
Making Steve Jobs Jealous: Apple is legendary for its fat profit margins, but the margins on the Watch will outshine even those of the flagship iPhone. Even the low-end watches could have profit margins higher than the iPhone. But the gold edition will have margins deep in luxury territory…
Follow me on Twitter @DavidGZeiler.