Archives for August 2012

August 2012 - Page 12 of 20 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

What the Last Roman Emperor Would Tell President Obama Today

Over the course of 700 years, the ancient Roman Empire grew from a small republic to one that stretched from London to Baghdad at its peak.

As one of the world's first true superpowers, the Empire's achievements included the world's first standing professional army, economic prowess, intellectual growth and governance principles that are commonly regarded as the basis for modern society.

But it is also remembered for its spectacular collapse in less than a century under the weight of bad debt, an overextension of the Empire, a collapse of morals that led to a deluded and self-absorbed political elite and reckless public spending that far outweighed collections.

Given the parallels to our situation, I can only imagine what Romulus Augustus, widely considered to be the last of the Roman Emperors, would tell President Barack Obama today about how to prevent the wholesale destruction of our own "Empire."

But it would probably go like this…

Cara praeses Obama, (Dear President Obama)

Like mine, your world is changing fast. No doubt it's very different from the one you thought you'd inherited. Your success will depend on new thinking and an eye to the future taken from lessons of the past.

I wouldn't be offended if you have never heard of me.

I oversaw the dying days of what you know as the Classic Western Roman Empire. My fall in September 476 marked the end of centuries of greatness and the fall of ancient Rome.

Some historians consider my departure as the beginning of the Middle Ages. I understand the nature of collapse: how it begins, how it progresses, and where it all ends.

As a historical footnote to a once great empire, here's my advice to you, Mr. President.

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It's Game Over, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Has Won

I'll make this short.

It's game over.

The match that ended last Thursday wasn't the final match in the series being played here on U.S. fields.

But it might as well have been.

The score was so lopsided, it reminded me of those long ago and far away matches where everybody cheered the action, not the players, because the deck was always heavily stacked and the outcomes almost always a foregone conclusion.

Those days, long ago, such lopsided matches were all the rage in Rome.

And typically, when scores were posted, it would be something like Christians nothing, Lions twenty.

Last week, though the score didn't reflect the intensity of the match, the outcome was just as lopsided.

It ended up Justice nothing, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) won (I mean one).

You see, there is no fire raging. It's all just smoke on the water. That's because the regulators – and oh yeah, that includes the Justice Department – have been thoroughly captured by the real lions of Wall Street. (Now, there's an idea for a reality T.V. show.)

In case you were too busy watching those other matches over in London, here's what just happened.

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Arena Cuts Loss, Sales Climb - Analyst Blog

Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARNA) suffered a loss (excluding special items) of 12 cents per share in the second quarter of 2012 as against a loss of 16 cents incurred in the year-ago quarter. However, second quarter 2012 loss was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 8 cents per share. The narrower […]

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Controversial Investigation Spawns New Oil Fears

A controversial video investigation led by a team of renowned scientists, economists and geopolitical experts warns a global energy collapse is imminent.

The investigation, filmed by an Emmy Award winning director, was released in late-July and has since gone viral, creating fear that the cost of everything associated with oil – including consumer gas prices – could soon become entirely unaffordable for ordinary citizens.

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How to Find the Best Undervalued Stocks

Some of the world's most successful investors – from Sir John Templeton to Warren Buffett – made their reputations and fortunes by buying undervalued stocks and holding until the rest of the market recognized the stock's true worth.

Today, however, with the S&P 500 resting atop the 1,400 level and the Nasdaq just over 3,010, finding undervalued issues isn't as easy as it was a few months back.

Fortunately, there are tools that can help you more easily ferret out some of the market's remaining hidden gems and find the best undervalued stocks.

They're called "stock screeners." There are at least a half dozen free ones that you can access online to help you search for value among the more than 8,000 companies traded on the various U.S. stock exchanges and electronic networks.

Some are fairly basic, allowing you to analyze stocks based on just 10 or 12 different criteria, while a couple are quite comprehensive. They let you request data in up to 60 different fundamental, technical and descriptive categories.

Some allow you to enter a range of values – e.g., a price/earnings (P/E) ratio between 12 and 20. Others utilize an over/under format asking you to enter absolute numbers – e.g., a P/E "<18" (18 or less). All allow you to pick only the indicators you're interested in for a given screening.

However, before you can use any screener – and I'll provide links to several of the leading free ones in just a minute – you need to know which fundamental and technical measures are most useful in finding undervalued stocks poised to grow.

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Does Weakening Eurozone Mean Recession 2013 for U.S.?

The Eurozone economy contracted in the second quarter, increasing fears that "Recession 2013" for the U.S. is a step closer to reality.

From April to June, gross domestic product (GDP) in the ailing Eurozone region withered 0.2%.
That compares to the prior three months where there was no growth as the area was besieged by the ailing economies of Greece, Italy, Spain and Finland, which all sharply contracted.

"[The contraction] confirmed that the Eurozone is to all intents and purposes in recession, even if it has avoided the technical definition of two successive quarters of negative quarter-on-quarter GDP," Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight wrote in a note to clients.

The only thing preventing the Eurozone from contracting more in the second quarter and falling back into its second recession in three years was a buoyant economic performance from Germany.

Healthy investment and domestic consumption boosted the German economy and helped it grow 0.3% in the second quarter, topping expectations of 0.1%. The Netherlands also beat expectations, reporting growth of 0.2% for the quarter.

Meanwhile, French GDP didn't budge, sidestepping a highly anticipated contraction.

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Don't Ignore This Shift in the Global Oil Market

The prices for crude oil and major oil products (like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil) continue to advance. And some interesting changes on the supply side are emerging. You see, traditional raw material providers are moving to supply international markets with value-added processed products. Russia is the clearest example of this transformation in […]

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Avoid the Stock That's a "Stairway to Hell"

Money Morning's Shah Gilani appeared on Fox Business' "Varney & Co." program today (Tuesday), and yet again Varney asked him to make a tough call.

Varney asked Gilani to pick which stocks he would buy out of the following four car companies: Honda Motor Co Ltd (NYSE ADR: HMC), Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE ADR: TM), General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) or Ford Motor Co. (NSYE: F). Even though the auto industry is recovering and these companies have seen great year-over-year growth the past year, Shah is not too keen on these stocks.

Yet, he does pick two stocks that offer some upside and his choices might surprise you.

Plus he warns investors of another stock they should avoid, one that has a price chart resembling a "stairway to hell."

Watch the entire accompanying video to make sure you're avoiding these bad investments.

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Don't Fall for This Magical Panacea, Share Buybacks are Dangerous to Your Dividends

Many investment advisers like to recommend stocks with large buyback programs. A buyback, they argue, is like some sort of magical panacea.

It allows companies to invest in themselves which pushes the share price higher.

On the face of it, the premise seems logical enough. But the reality is that it's not quite that simple.

In fact, you can call me old-fashioned if you like but I believe large buyback programs can actually be dangerous and stocks with them should be avoided. I'll tell you why.

It primarily has to do with the rise of corporate options schemes as form of compensation.

Of course, it wasn't always this way.

Before "options as compensation" became so widespread, management usually owned shares directly just like any other shareholder. It meant they were just as interested in receiving their dividends as the guy on the street.

That has all changed. Now that management has ownership largely in the form of stock options, they're not as keen on dividends. As option holders they don't receive them.

They also recognize dividend payouts cause the share price to fall after they are paid, lessening the value of their all-important options.

It's all about the money you see which is why options-rewarded management came up with share buybacks in the first place.

For options-rewarded management, buybacks have two advantages.

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This Key Energy Metric Could Make You A Lot of Money

Last week I discussed what EROEI is-and how to use it.

This week I'd like to talk about how this key metric affects the balance of your energy investment portfolio.

Now, this is certainly not the only element in determining preferable stock moves, but it's critical that you know the EROEI because it could make you a lot of money.

Recognizing the real elements that determine the genuine cost of energy production, EROEI is becoming an important factor in estimating profit margins.

And those margins certainly influence the performance of a stock as we've seen all across the energy value chain in recent months.

EROEI refers to the amount of energy used to produce energy.

If this ratio produces a figure of 1.0, EROEI is telling us that it takes one barrel of oil equivalent to produce one barrel as a result.

Anything under 1.0 means that more energy is consumed in the production process than is gained as an end product.

EROEI has the advantage of being a useful yardstick throughout the energy curve – from upstream production sites (wellheads, generating facilities) through midstream (gathering, transit, storage and initial processing) to downstream (refineries, terminals, wholesale and retail distribution, end use).

Some applications of EROEI are already in wide usage, although we don't tend to think about them in these terms. Energy-efficiency ratings on appliances, heating and cooling systems, windows, or building supplies are an application at the end of the energy curve.

But how can we use this to fine-tune an investment portfolio?

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