Of all the news and events that can influence Apple stock over the course of the year, the one with the most long-term impact is the annual introduction of new iPhone models.
Next Wednesday, Sept. 9, Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) will unveil the iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus, along with a larger iPad model and a more sophisticated, pricier Apple TV set-top box.
In years that Apple introduces blockbuster products, AAPL stock soars. One year after the July 2009 introduction of the iPhone 3GS, Apple stock rose 96%. And one year after the October 2011 debut of the iPhone 4S, Apple stock gained 50%.
But the rare disappointment is bad news for Apple shareholders. Such was the case with the iPhone 5, which was unveiled in Sept. 2012. One year later, AAPL stock had plunged 32%.
We already know many of the details of what will be unveiled at the Apple event. Here's a guide to what to expect - and how each of these announcements will impact Apple stock.
Apple Stock Needs the iPhone 6S to Match Its Predecessor
The iPhone is far and away the most important product to AAPL. It accounts for about two-thirds of the tech giant's revenue.
The new iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus have a tough act to follow. Last year's models were the first with the larger screen sizes (4.7-inch and 5.5-inch), which proved wildly popular. Their success pushed Apple stock up 34% until the pullback that began after the poorly received Q3 earnings report in July.
Some analysts are worried that this year's models won't have enough "wow" factor to match that feat. Leaked information says the iPhone 6S models will have a faster processor and much-improved 12-magapixel camera - pretty much par for the course.
The marquee feature is supposed to be "Force Touch," which will make the touchscreen sensitive not just to the finger touching it, but how much pressure is being applied.
While it's true those features aren't nearly as compelling as the big screens were last year, don't underestimate the sales potential of the iPhone 6S...
During that Q3 earnings report, CEO Tim Cook said only 27% of its customers had upgraded to the iPhone 6, leaving a lot of opportunity for the iPhone 6S. Don't forget, U.S. customers on two-year plans are still using an iPhone 5S or iPhone 5C with the puny 4-inch screen. They'll be eager to upgrade. And then there's users of Android phones. Apple says it's been seeing a lot of "switchers" over the past year.
Cook also eased concerns about sales in China last week in a tweeted response to CNBC's Jim Cramer. "Growth in iPhone activations has actually accelerated [in China] over the past few weeks," Cook tweeted.
Finally, the lack of changes in the iPhone 6S from its predecessor - the models are thought to use the exact same cases, for example - actually carries a big benefit for Apple stock.
You see, the prices of most of those shared components, such as flash memory, have dropped over the past 12 months. So the iPhone 6S, even with its enhancements, will cost less to produce. That means fatter profit margins for Apple and another potential boost to AAPL stock.
AAPL's Comeback Strategy for the iPad
For nearly two years, Apple earnings have had one consistent negative: the iPad. Year-over-year sales of the tablet have declined for six straight quarters. Cook has blamed the iPad slump on cannibalization from both the Mac and the larger iPhones.
But on Wednesday, Apple will introduce a bigger iPad aimed squarely at boosting sales to enterprise customers. Expected to be called the iPad Pro, it is thought to sport a 12.9-inch screen - substantially larger than the 9.7-inch screen of the current iPad Air 2.
The iPad Pro dovetails with Apple's recent partnerships with two tech veterans with a lot of experience selling to enterprise customers: International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) and Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO).
The IBM partnership, launched a year ago, has IBM developing business software for the iPhone and iPad.
Cisco, in a deal announced just last week, will work on better integrating Apple mobile devices into corporate networks, which run mostly on Cisco hardware.
Until now, Apple was happy to sell to businesses but did little to actively court the enterprise. These two partnerships and the new iPad Pro show that Apple finally is targeting this $2 trillion annual market. That's the kind of growth potential that can move the needle for Apple stock.
Apple TV Matures into a Profit Machine
Apple's one-time "hobby" of Apple TV is also about to become a new focus of revenue growth, starting with the debut of a new, pricier set-top box on Wednesday.
It is thought that this overhauled Apple TV will carry a price tag of between $145 and $200 - much higher than the $69 for the current model - and have several key new abilities.
The biggest is that it will have game console capabilities, but with a major difference. Apple TV games will be downloadable directly to the set-top box.
That also suggests Apple TV will have a hard drive (or a solid state drive - whoa) for DVR-like recording. And it will probably include Siri voice controls.
Of course the new Apple TV will retain its Wi-Fi capabilities, which means it can network with iPhones, Macs, iPads, and Apple HomeKit devices. You know, as in the Internet of Things.
And then there's the Apple streaming video service, which will run via the Apple TV and is expected to debut sometime next year.
That means the new vision is for the Apple TV to serve as both portal and marketplace for all manner of digital entertainment. This should become a very lucrative business for Apple over the next couple of years, and one more catalyst for AAPL stock.
Still to Come
You won't see any new Macs or models of the Apple Watch on Wednesday.
It would be awesome if Tim Cook gave some more clarity on Apple Watch sales numbers, though. Many conflicting reports about just how well the Watch is selling have created a lot of confusion among analysts and investors alike.
As for the Mac, Apple is expected to bring out at least one new model with a 4K screen at a separate event in October. A new version of the Mac operating system, OS X El Capitan, is also expected to launch in late September or early October. It will continue the trend of integration with iOS, Apple's operating system for its mobile devices.
Basically, the Apple juggernaut is showing no signs of slowing down. All of these developments will continue to grow profits and keep Apple stock on track to reach $200 a share.
Follow me on Twitter @DavidGZeiler.
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About the Author
David Zeiler, Associate Editor for Money Morning at Money Map Press, has been a journalist for more than 35 years, including 18 spent at The Baltimore Sun. He has worked as a writer, editor, and page designer at different times in his career. He's interviewed a number of well-known personalities - ranging from punk rock icon Joey Ramone to Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak.
Over the course of his journalistic career, Dave has covered many diverse subjects. Since arriving at Money Morning in 2011, he has focused primarily on technology. He's an expert on both Apple and cryptocurrencies. He started writing about Apple for The Sun in the mid-1990s, and had an Apple blog on The Sun's web site from 2007-2009. Dave's been writing about Bitcoin since 2011 - long before most people had even heard of it. He even mined it for a short time.
Dave has a BA in English and Mass Communications from Loyola University Maryland.