US Brent Oil


The Oil Sector Is Getting Ahead of Itself - Here's How to Profit

It feels like 10 years ago, but it's really only been about seven weeks since that fateful April 20, when a COVID-19-driven collapse in demand pummeled West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures. Prices hit the floor, fell through it, and landed in negative territory at -$37.63 a barrel.

In those seven weeks, WTI has rocketed almost 200%. The S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Select Industry Index has risen nearly 70%, though it's still down more than 24% for the year.

Over the past few days, though, oil benchmarks have been creeping 2% and 3% lower, which in my experience is a big, neon sign saying "Selling Ahead." And several marquee energy stocks like Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Halliburton Co. are also flashing sell-off warnings.

This reminds me of the old Road Runner and Wile E. Coyote Looney Tunes cartoons – remember them? One of the (many) cheesy running gags had Wile chasing Road Runner only to overshoot him at a cliff. Wile would hang there in midair for a second, have a "Maalox moment," and then drop.

That's not all that different than what's happening in crude right now. Both the commodity and most of its associated stocks entered what market technicians like me call "overbought" territory. Now they're dropping like rocks. Investors are starting to figure out if they're in over their heads.

How do I know? The answer is worth exploring because it can make you a sharper trader. There's one simple, small number you can look at in any stock chart that can tell you instantly how to play it.

I'll get into that briefly and then I'll tell you how to play the oil patch's precarious "Wile E. Coyote" situation… Full Story

I'll get into that briefly and then I'll tell you how to play the oil patch's precarious "Wile E. Coyote" situation... Full Story


Here's My Full 2019 Crude Oil Price Forecast (and the Best Way to Profit)

The final quarter of 2018 has certainly been "historic." Then again, so was RMS Titanic's last night above water.

Both primary crude benchmarks posted highs on Oct. 3, but through close of trade on Dec. 27, they've been in marked retreat. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the standard for futures contracts set in New York, has lost 41.6%, while Brent, the more widely used global yardstick set daily in London, has shed 39.8%.

Those figures even include a major single-session advance of 8% recorded on Dec. 26.

Of course, oil has been moving in tandem with a collapsing broader stock market. Weakness and volatility have been boosted by (largely misplaced) angst involving a credit inversion, where shorter-term maturities begin offering higher yields than paper further down on the curve.

A yield inversion is sometimes regarded as a precursor to a recession, although I also regard this fear as quite overblown.

Why? It's simple: The market has had more inversions not leading to recessions than it has had those resulting in one. Besides, in the unlikely event a recession hits this time around, it usually takes at least 18 months for any tangible indicators to form. Prior to that, it's all idle speculation, guesswork, and worry.

And as if to put a point on it, that worrisome inversion has quietly corrected over the past few weeks.

At the end of each year, there is a combination of loss-taking for tax purposes, institutional investors balancing and re-balancing portfolios, and lowered liquidity.

This is nothing new. This year, however, all three factors have collided in a profoundly uncertain environment fueled by a government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, concerns over U.S. foreign policy consistency, a U.S.-Chinese trade war, and highly suspicious computer-buying programs.

So it's easy to see why crude prices seem stuck in the basement – stock prices, too, for that matter.

But as I'm about to show you, the year ahead looks much brighter than the current situation suggests...


How to Use Options to Play the Next Oil Wave

Crude oil prices are rising again.

Much to the relief of oil investors.

The rise has been reflected both by the West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark used for futures contracts set on New York, and Brent, the equivalent set daily in London.

As of close of trade Sept. 19 – which happened at 2:30 for oil – WTI was at $71.12 a barrel, the highest since July 10. Meanwhile, Brent closed slightly higher at $79.23.

I have previously addressed the main reasons for why the price is moving up here in Oil and Energy Investor, and for some time now, the supply side of the market balance has been tightening.

Thanks to this, there is something interesting stirring in the oil sector – something that manifested in a recommendation to my Energy Inner Circle premium subscribers just a couple days ago.

I don't often do this, but this is a fast-track recommendation I'm including in Oil & Energy Investor today, because you're not going to want to miss out on this...


The Iran Deal Is Dead; Here's What That Means for Crude Oil Prices

Several months ago, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered an ultimatum on the Iranian nuclear deal:

"Either fix the deal's disastrous flaws, or the United States will withdraw."

Much of my time over the past week has been devoted to assessing the fallout from this widely expected White House decision.

And now, as I expected, the White House made good on that threat. The "other shoe" has dropped.

Despite clear support from French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, UK Prime Minister Theresa May, and the European Union to continue the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), popularly known as the "Iran nuclear deal," and offset a Trump veto, the deal, as it existed on Monday, is now dead.

The stakes are high, but European positions are not enough.

So let me show you how I think this will ultimately play out - and break down exactly how to play crude oil in the wake of this thing...