Archives for August 2012

August 2012 - Page 8 of 20 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

Stock Market Today: Best Buy (BBY) Whiffs, While Urban Outfitters (URBN) Scores

The stock market today is quiet on low volume but there are plenty of profits to be found since investors are still hopeful that central banks in Europe and the U.S. are ready to act.

Meanwhile, here are two well-known retail stocks that are headed in opposite directions today.

One is dropping, while the other–Urban Outfitters (URBN)–is up nearly 20% on the day.

Not surprisingly, the retailer headed to the downside is Best Buy Co Inc. (NYSE: BBY).

The retail electronics giant reported that its second-quarter profit plummeted more than 90% from the year earlier quarter showing the difficulties newly appointed Chief Executive Officer Hubert Joly faces in turning around the company.

The world's largest consumer electronics chain announced net income of $12 million, or 4 cents a share compared to $128 million, or 34 cents, a year earlier. Excluding previously announced restructuring charges, earnings were 20 cents a share. Analysts on average were expecting 31 cents.

Sales fell 3% to $10.55 billion, while analysts had forecast $10.63 billion. Sales at stores open at least 14 months fell 3.2% in the second quarter ended on August 4, including a 1.6% decline in the U.S. and an 8.2% drop internationally. Gross margins also fell more than 1% as Best Buy used more discounts to lure in customers.

"This is really a bad signal about the business, implying much more promotion than in the past," Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles, emailed Bloomberg. He rates Best Buy neutral. "The factors leading to the decline don't look like they're going to decline any time soon."

Hubert Joly was appointed CEO just yesterday and will try to transition the company towards smaller stores while continuing to deal with founder and former chairman Richard Schulze's attempt to take the company private.

To continue reading, please click here...

Ryancare vs. Obamacare: The Future of Medicare is at Stake

When Mitt Romney named Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential nominee, the Medicare battle jumped to the front and center of election 2012.

First introduced in 2010, "The Ryan Budget" is a bold plan that attempts to reduce the deficit by drastically cutting spending-which some claim will "cripple" Medicare.

So what is the truth?….

Ryancare vs Obamacare

Though the plans differ in ideology, Obamacare and Ryancare actually have some similarities.

In Ryan's plan, new enrollees after 2022 would have to choose between a private insurance plan and Medicare, making Medicare the "public option" that was so opposed in Obamacare.

Ryan's plan gives Medicare enrollees vouchers to choose from competing private insurance plans offered on a Medicare exchange. These exchanges closely resemble the exchanges in Obamacare that some Republican governors have refused to participate in.

And both plans basically "cut" the program by over $700 billion and set a growth cap on Medicare spending at GDP levels plus 0.5%.

The difference in the plans is how these cuts are made and why.

As Ezra Klein of the Washington Post says, "Democrats believe the best way to reform Medicare is to leave the program intact but vastly strengthen its ability to pay for quality. Republicans believe the best way to reform Medicare is to fracture the system between private plans and traditional Medicare and let competition do its work."

The only problem is that neither of these plans may do enough to fix Medicare.

The biggest misconception with Ryan's plan is that current senior citizens will be faced with outrageous healthcare costs.

That is simply not true.

To continue reading, please click here...

Election 2012: Obama's Odds Are Pretty Good if You Ask Mr. Market

If you want to know who's going to win Election 2012, just ask Mr. Market. He has a knack for picking presidential winners.

As it happens, stock market performance in the years and months leading up to a presidential election is one of the most reliable indicators of who will win and who will lose.

And the way things look at the moment, Mr. Market really likes the President Barack Obama reelection odds.
Obama Reelection odds
"It's suggesting that Obama's got a better chance than people think," Jeff Hirsch of Stock Trader's Almanac told Yahoo's Breakout last week. "Incumbent victories are accompanied by much larger gains in the stock market. The Dow Jones has been up significantly higher in election years when incumbents win. And it looks like the track that we're on here."

Hirsch's data shows that since 1901, election years in which the incumbent wins enjoy a Dow Jones Industrial Average rise of 6% by August and 12% by Election Day.

So far this year, the Dow is up nearly 8.5% — comfortably in re-election territory for President Obama.

To continue reading, please click here....

As Prices Rise, Here's How to Play Natural Gas Companies

The price of natural gas hit a 10-year low in April, sinking to $1.91 per MMBtu on April 19. Since then, natural gas prices are on the rise. In fact, prices have surged nearly 50%, to around $2.75 per MMBtu over the past four months.

What changed?

One, the sector came out of a very mild winter that saw very poor demand for natural gas.

Two, the onset of summer – and a particularly hot one, at that – has had the exact opposite effect.

This summer's record-setting heat has wreaked serious havoc on the economy. The price of everything we consume has been to some degree impacted by the heat, and natural gas is no exception. As temperatures have risen, utility companies have had to rely more and more on natural gas to generate electricity.

What's more, due to strengthened environmental regulations, coal-fired power plants are coming off-line, and their capacity is being replaced by natural gas.

On the supply side, prices were also juiced by last week's Energy Information Administration report that supplies increased by 24 billion cubic feet, missing expectations of a rise between 27 million bcf and 31 million bcf.

While prices are up, they're still hovering below $3. Since much of the country is still in the throes one of the hottest summers on record, there's still some money to be made.

What's more, analysts are predicting a colder winter than last year, which should bring some stability to prices when the heat wave subsides.

To continue reading, please click here...

How to Be Safely Diversified and Earn Hefty Yields

If you're not at all concerned about yield, diversified income investing is easy.

The market is full consumer goods companies offering 3-4% yields some of which have staggering records of dividend increases for 30, 40 or even 50 years.

Provided these companies are not overpriced, they make very good long-term "heirloom" investments since they are very nearly recession-proof. What's more, once companies like these have established a track record of dividend increases for several decades, they take pains to keep it.

But the truth is a 3-4% yield on its own simply doesn't cut it for most income-seeking investors.

In Ben Bernanke's rotten world, a few select high-yield investments are practically a necessity these days.

After all, if you are looking to establish a $100,000 income stream, you'd need nearly $3 million in principal if your yield is in the 3-4% range. For many income investors, it's just not enough.

The problem is once you start to look for companies with a 5% yield or better, the selection of investible companies becomes much more narrow.

And here's what I know about narrow: it tends to concentrate your investments in a few sectors, which can be risky.

The good news is this diversification problem can be overcome. Let me explain.

The Search for Attractive Yields

In today's market, there are two types of companies that offer attractive dividends in the 7-10% yield range. They are real estate investment trusts (REITs) and energy/resources master limited partnerships (MLPs).

Both these investments benefit from special tax treatment, which means they don't pay corporate tax, provided they pass their income through to investors as dividends.

Although they are tied to the real estate cycle in apartments, offices, warehouses or retail buildings, equity REITs make solid investments.

They're not to be confused with the high yielding mortgage REITs that currently benefit from the Ben Bernanke yield curve.

The largest of these are American Capital Agency Inc. (Nasdaq: AGNC) and Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) both of which pay yields in excess of 13%. They invest in long-term fixed rate mortgages and finance themselves in the short-term repo market.

That's a very dangerous game, which promises to blow up when interest rates eventually rise. So don't get fooled by those gigantic yields, stick the property REITs.

On the other hand, MLPs offer investors the chance to benefit from the resource extraction business, whether oil, gas or mining. MLPs routinely pay yields over 6%, with some into the double-digits.

The snag to watch here is that income stream for most of them is tied to a finite pool of assets, or will expire in a finite period of time.

Since your investment is essentially "on the clock" that means that what you see is not precisely what you get; you have to look closely under the hood.

In this case investors need to make sure the yield is high enough and the pool of assets or life of the company long enough to justify the overall investment.

Another sector that offers high dividend yields is shipping.

To continue reading, please click here…

To continue reading, please click here...

Why a Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release Won't Help Oil Prices or President Obama

With oil prices showing no signs of retreat during the final months of the U.S. presidential campaign, beltway insiders are turning to one misguided solution to combat rising oil prices.

Releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Trial balloons floated all over Washington during the past few days. The only reason politicians didn't move on this sooner (say a few months ago) was the price level.

Until the last month or so, both oil and gasoline prices were heading in the other direction. Near-month futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the crude oil benchmark traded on the NYMEX, were below $78 a barrel in intraday trade toward the end of June, while the same futures for RBOB (the NYMEX traded gasoline contract) were at $2.55 a gallon.

At the time, all the sage pundits predicted that oil would fall below $60 a barrel; some even suggested that prices could approach $40. On the gasoline side, these same wise guys were proclaiming we may see prices at the pump breach $3.

Everything has changed quickly.

Yesterday morning the markets opened with WTI 23% higher than late June and RBOB up by more than 20%. Oil stands at more than $96 a barrel in New York, while Brent has exceeded $116 a barrel in London. And retail gas prices are once again approaching $4 a gallon.

Recently, I discussed why oil prices are moving up. But for some politicians, including the fellow running for reelection at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, those prices are becoming a job liability.

So it's back to hitting the SPR.

But there are four reasons why tapping the SPR won't make oil prices any cheaper in the end.

Maybe you should let your Congressman know about them…

To continue reading, please click here...

Perry Ellis Lags; Outlook Shrinks - Analyst Blog

Perry Ellis International Inc. (PERY) posted adjusted earnings per share of a penny in the second quarter of fiscal 2013, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents as well as deteriorating from the year-ago earnings of 11 cents per share. On a reported basis, losses per share were 17 cents versus a gain of […]

Read More…

Invest in Gold Mining Stocks While They're Still a Bargain

With gold prices high and likely to go higher, this might be the best time to invest in gold mining stocks.

Gold prices eked out a small gain Friday to close at $1,616.30 an ounce.

Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel Thursday supporting European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's crisis strategy to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro helped push gold prices higher.

More disappointing U.S. economic news in manufacturing and housing starts could also boost the yellow metal. The more the U.S. economy struggles, the more likely the U.S. Federal Reserve will launch another stimulus program that would favor higher gold prices.

For some investors, this adds to their dilemma of whether to invest in physical gold or gold equities.

History is on the side of physical gold. Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) has found that in the last five years, physical gold has outperformed global gold stocks by 120%.

But because gold stocks – and gold mining stocks in particular – have lagged gold prices, they have a lot of upside potential.

What's more, gold mining stocks offer something in return – dividends – in addition to benefiting from a continued rise in gold prices. Many commodities experts think gold prices could reach $2,000 an ounce or more within the next six months.

While not quite in bull mode, gold mining stocks have begun to stir of late. Here are three gold mining stocks worth a look for gold equity investors.

Read More…

5 Reasons Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Stock Hit a New All-Time High

Just when it looked like the Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) success story had taken a detour, Apple stock suddenly hits a new all-time high.

AAPL shot past its previous intraday high record of $644 by reaching $648.19 during Friday's session. The close of $648.11 easily broke the $636.23 record closing price set on April 9.

Today (Monday) Apple stock is up more than 1% in early trading, reaching an intraday high of $656.35.

That's hardly what many investors expected after Apple reported on July 24 that it missed on its June quarter earnings and offered weak guidance for the current quarter.

After that Apple stock dipped into the $570 range several times before quietly starting its climb back to its previous high.

Since those lows of late July, AAPL has soared 12% — more than twice the rise of the Standard & Poor's 500 index and almost triple the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

How can this be? Why are investors so high on a company that hasn't really done anything spectacular lately?

Read More…

Michael Kors Holdings - Momentum

Shares of Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (KORS) are hovering close to their 52-week high of $50.69 after strong fiscal 2013 first quarter results, which included a whopping 70.0% earnings surprise. Furthermore, Zacks Consensus Estimates for this fiscal year and next have moved sharply higher in the past 7 days, underscoring its Zacks #1 Rank (Strong […]

Read More…