Archives for December 2012

December 2012 - Page 14 of 17 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

Here are the Hefty Fiscal Cliff Automatic Spending Cuts

While much of the fiscal cliff debate has focused on possible tax increases, failure to reach a deal to avert the cliff could bring massive automatic spending cuts.

Barring an agreement between U.S. President Barack Obama and Congress, $1.2 trillion of spending cuts over the coming decade would begin taking effect Jan. 2.

The automatic spending cuts, known as "sequestration" – a result of Congress's 2011 negotiations to raise the debt ceiling – would total $109 billion in 2013, CBS News reported.

Here's a closer look at where the cuts would be targeted.

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Fiscal Cliff 2013: Why It's Looking Like No Deal

Expectations have changed lately regarding fiscal cliff 2013. It's looking increasingly likely that we are going over it.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, U.S. President Barack Obama's lead delegator on the fiscal cliff talks, told CNBC the Obama administration is "absolutely" prepared to go over the cliff if Republicans don't change their tune on taxes.

President Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner on Wednesday, along with Congressional Republicans, reiterated their stance on the fiscal cliff. No compromise was reached, with just 25 days remaining before zero hour.

President Obama maintains there could be a quick deal if Republican lawmakers withdraw their resistance to raising taxes for individuals earning more than $250,000 a year, swapping for concessions on federal spending cuts and entitlement reforms.

"If we can get the leadership on the Republican side to take the framework, to acknowledge the reality, then the numbers aren't that far apart," the president told "The Business Roundtable."

He added, "Another way of putting this is we can probably solve this in about a week. It's not that tough, but we need that conceptual breakthrough."

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With Apple Stock Falling, Be Sure You Do This (Nasdaq: AAPL)

If Sir Isaac Newton were alive today he wouldn't have to sit under a tree to get knocked senseless by an errant fruit – with Apple stock falling, rising, then falling again, just being an Apple investor would do the trick.

Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) stock started the year at $411, itself a 27% increase over the course of 2011. The stock rocketed to $626 in April, fell to $530 in May before zooming up to $702 in September.

And then it really got crazy.

Apple stock started falling, taking a rocky slide down to an intraday low of $505 on Nov. 16. Two weeks later, AAPL was back over $590 and threatening to cross the $600 threshold.

Until this week, when Apple stock went falling yet again. On Tuesday AAPL dropped $10 a share (about 1.7%), then Wednesday nosedived another $37.05, or 6.4%, to close at $538.79.

Apple stock today (Thursday) opened in negative territory, slipping quickly down to $518.63. Then it suddenly reversed sharply upward, reaching $550 by noon.

Analysts were left scratching their heads.

"Apple stock is significantly more volatile than its earnings and innovation stream," Daniel Ernst, analyst with Hudson Square Research, told Reuters. "And yet the wind blows slightly from the south instead of the east one particular morning, and the stock is down 6%."

"It makes no sense. There are lines around the block for their products all around the world," Ernst added. "No other company has that."

Why Apple Stock is Falling

Theories abound as to why Apple stock is falling.

This week's move most likely was triggered when AAPL stock made a "death cross" – that is, the 50-day moving average dropped below the 200-day moving average, typically a bad sign for a stock.

But there are a few other factors that could have turned off investors:

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November U.S. Jobs Report: What to Expect

When the Department of Labor releases the November U.S. jobs report tomorrow (Friday), brace yourself for dismal news.

U.S. jobs growth most likely experienced a sharp slowdown last month as the late-October Superstorm Sandy interrupted economic activity.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls are forecast to show a gain of just 93,000 in November, down considerably from 171,000 in October.

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney are more pessimistic, calling for nonfarm payroll gains of 77,000 in November.

Barclays' outlook is even bleaker. The bank sees a gain of 50,000, which would push the jobless rate to 8.0% from 7.9%.

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It's Not Just Investor Demand Pushing Silver Prices Higher

You've heard that silver prices are expected to increase amid growing demand for the precious metal, as investors worried about central bank and government spending policies seek alternatives to stocks.

Money Morning Global Resources Specialist Peter Krauth said in his 2013 silver price forecast that the white metal, which closed at nearly $33 an ounce Wednesday, could hit $54 an ounce next year.

In fact, Krauth said he likes to think of silver as "gold on steroids."

But investors have largely overlooked another key factor that will contribute to higher silver prices over the next couple of years.

That's global industrial demand for silver, which will start to take off in 2013.

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What the Fiscal Cliff Will Cost You on January 1st

That slow moving train wreck known as "The Fiscal Cliff" is suddenly upon us.

If Congress doesn't act soon, numerous tax breaks will expire – automatic spending cut will kick in – and this one, two punch will hit every American squarely in the wallet.

It's a fiscal tsunami that will strike as early as December. The damage will be so widespread it could derail the entire U.S. economy.

Nobody in Washington, however, is doing anything about it.

If you're not worried yet, you should be.

Here's why…

"Taxmageddon" Means Higher Taxes for All

The Bush-era tax cuts will end on Jan. 1, 2013, unless Congress intervenes.

Also set to expire that day will be a temporary payroll-tax holiday on social security.

The tax changes won't just slam a few income brackets; they'll reach all taxpayers.

Every one of the existing income tax brackets will be ratcheted up, starting with the lowest 10% bracket, which will be hiked to 15%. The 25% bracket will jump to 28%; the 28% bracket will go to 31%; the 33% bracket will be replaced by a 36% bracket and the 35% bracket will soar to 39.6%.

Stock market investors will also be punished.

Right now, the maximum tax rate on long-term capital gains and dividends is only 15%. Starting next year, the maximum rate on long-term gains is scheduled to increase to 20%.

But get this — the maximum rate on dividends will skyrocket to a whopping 39.6%.

That's not all…

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Walker & Dunlop - Value

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD) reported phenomenal third quarter results early last month with a triple-digit advance in both adjusted net income and total revenues. Earnings for this commercial real estate financial services company are expected to grow 17.5% in the current year and 16.9% in 2013. A forward P/E multiple of 8.59 and an […]

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Is America Having Enough Babies...Or is it Another Sign We're Turning Japanese?

A new study by The Pew Research Center shows that the birth rate in the United States has dropped to the lowest level since 1920, when reliable statistics were first made available.

The birth rate dropped precipitously last year to only 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age (which is defined as 15 to 44 years of age). That is half of what it was in 1957 at its peak.

Most people aren't troubled by this — but they should be. Here's why.

Our low birth rate has tremendous implications at all levels of our society. What's more, it is yet another sign that we are turning Japanese.

Now I know the idea that we are becoming more and more Japanese-like is not without its fair share of criticism.

People question me all the time about it – challenge me is more like it – arguing that the United States is different. That somehow, unlike Japan, we're going to escape the economic mess we've created for ourselves.

Having spent more than 20 years closely involved in Japanese society as a businessman, a husband, a father, and a part-time resident, I think that's wishful thinking.

The truth is any population decline in the United States will have severe implications for our economic way of life exactly the way it has in Japan.

And it's not just the numbers of births that matter, but rather all of the things that stem from low birth rates years down the line.

The Future Pitfalls of the Decline in U.S. Birth Rates

For example, a lower birth rate means fewer job prospects in the future. It also means fewer workers feeding into a system that actually requires more workers to support the greying society we live in.

With declining birth rates, Japan is now expected to drop from 2.8 workers supporting each retiree in 2008 to 1.5 by 2050.

Here in the United States, our trend is headed in the same direction, where a mere 2.6 workers will be expected to support each retiree by 2050. That's a 44.68% decrease from the 4.7 workers in 2008 — and a whopping 85.65% reduction from the 42 workers who supported each retiree at the end of WWII.

There are implications in terms of health care rationing, too. It will affect home care, assisted living, traffic, mobility, technology, and taxes. Especially taxes…

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Letting Biotech Companies "Patent Nature" Could Be a Huge Boon for Investors

The U.S. Supreme Court has just agreed to hear a landmark case that could have extreme money-making ramifications for biotech companies.

Next June, the nine justices are expected to settle – once and for all – whether companies can patent human genes in the United States.

The Patent and Trademark Office has been issuing patents on DNA for nearly 30 years, according to Bloomberg Businessweek.

Roughly 4,000 of the 22,000 human genes now have some form of patent.

But the American Civil Liberties Union has challenged the practice in Association for Molecular Pathology v. Myriad Genetics. Now that case will go to the highest court in the country.

At heart, the legal question sounds simple: Does Myriad Genetics Inc. (NasdaqGS:MYGN) have the right to patent two genes that signal whether a woman is at higher risk of getting cancer of the breasts or ovaries?

Myriad of course did not invent or create the breast cancer predisposition genes, referred to as BRCA genes.

But it did create something called the BRACAnalysis test that looks for mutations on these genes. Those mutations are associated with much greater risks of breast and ovarian cancer.

Usually firms cannot get that kind of market protection for something that is clearly a product of nature. But in this case, Myriad has developed a process of extracting a gene that makes the resulting molecule novel and chemically different from DNA that naturally occurs in our bodies.

And, after all, it took Myriad 17 years and $500 million to develop the test. Without barriers to entry, other firms could simply come in, take advantage of all that costly effort and sell a knockoff for less money.

Even if that weren't illegal, it's obviously unfair.

Let's dig into the case and why it matters to you…

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