Category

Federal Reserve System

The Fed

Larry Summers Should Not Be the Next Federal Reserve Chairman

Just this week, the Wall Street Journal reported that former Treasury Secretary and Harvard
President Larry Summers is "hell-bent" on becoming the next U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman.

The more important issue, however, is whether Americans should want Summers involved in such a prominent role in the global economy.

Arguments that favor Summers center on the fact that when the building clears out in 2014, Summers will be one of the few individuals left with significant experience in the international financial system. With Timothy Geithner gone, Ben Bernanke leaving in 2014, and departures of David Lipton at the IMF Michael Froman at USTR, Summers is considered one of the last "battle tested" individuals left. He has significant experience following the 1994 Russian crisis, the 1997 Asian Crisis and the 2008 Great Recession.

But while experience in necessary, so is the importance of accomplishments.

Critics have argued that handing the keys of the U.S. economy to Larry Summers would be equivalent to allowing a blind sheepdog to protect Americans from wolves. Summers' past 25 years of experience is riddled with questions about his ability to understand crisis, his commitment to corporate influence, and his irrational pledge to illogical academic arguments.

Given that few in Washington seem to vet political appointees of this administration, we decided to explore several important questions about Summers' potential candidacy and past understanding of the Federal Reserve's role in the global economy.

The Fed

You can Figure out When the Fed Might Start Tapering

Although you might think the markets simply respond any time Ben Bernanke sneezes, his "cold cycle" is not one of the indicators that will spell the slowing

and eventual cessation of the printing press at the Fed.

There actually is a mathematical formula used by the Federal Reserve to determine when to stop the presses.

I could give you the formula and it would look like this:

POP2 = [1-(%POP) m*m] *POP1.

Or, I could share the link to the Federal Reserve's Jobs Calculator in Atlanta.

This is the same calculator used by the Fed to determine when the jobs market and the unemployment rate will align properly. And when they do, it will signal to the Federal Reserve that it might be a good time to start tapering its $85 billion a month bond buying program.

This is what needs to happen: The economy will have to show new job growth.

The Fed is looking for the creation of 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs each month for 6 months. This is how we look now:

To continue reading, please click here...

The Fed

Top 5 Choices for the Next Fed Chief Leave Much to Be Desired

After President Barack Obama all but fired U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a recent television interview, everyone's been trying to figure out who the president will name as the next Fed chief next year.

Of course, Money Morning has long been critical of the Bernanke-led Fed, and in particular its easy money policies of recent years — namely its zero interest rates and waves of quantitative easing (QE) that have added trillions to the Fed's balance sheet.

That debt, the asset bubbles it has created and the Fed's too-cozy relationship with the Big Banks, has prompted the experts at Money Morning to question whether the Federal Reserve should exist at all.

"I believe the Fed is outmoded and should be disbanded," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald, who recently wrote about whether the Fed is necessary. "It's a financial body that has outlived its usefulness and is merely causing us to lurch from crisis to crisis. Barring any change in the notion of what it's there to do, get rid of it."

Still, for the time being, we're stuck with the Federal Reserve. And the next Fed chief – whoever President Obama appoints in January — will be setting monetary policy for at least the next four years.

One thing's for sure: Anyone who dislikes how Bernanke has run the central bank probably won't be happy with the next Fed chairman either.

As confounding as it seems now, it was not the liberal Democrat President Obama, but Republican President George W. Bush who first appointed Bernanke to head the Federal Reserve in 2006.

That Obama re-appointed Bernanke in 2010 made sense, as they share a similar Keynesian economic philosophy. That is, they both think the best way to help a weak economy is through massive government spending no matter how much debt piles up.

So while Bernanke may be on his way out the door, you can bet that whoever President Obama chooses as the next Fed chief will be just as much of a Keynesian as Bernanke has been – and maybe more so.

Heaven help us.

To continue reading, please click here...

Wall Street

The Fed Or the Fundamentals? What's Behind Stock Market Moves?

What's driving the stock market – the Fed or company fundamentals?

The answer, of course, depends whom you ask.

Has most or all of the growth in the market over the past few years been due to the Fed's massive QE easy money stimulus?

Or is it fundamentals like earnings per share and the price/earnings ratio?

We asked three experts to weigh in: Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald, Money Morning Capital Wave Strategist Shah Gilani and Brian Wesbury, the chief economist at First Trust Advisors.

Here's their take.

To continue reading, please click here…

The Fed

Is the Stock Market Sell-Off Over? That Depends on Bernanke

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's announcement last week that the Fed would like to start curbing its QE3 bond-buying program triggered a stock market sell-off that erased two months' worth of gains in two days.

The markets have stabilized in the days since, but the episode has left Wall Street jittery.

And for that you can blame Bernanke, Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald told host Stuart Varney on FOX Business today (Wednesday).

"The bet is all about Ben. This market is all about what he's going to do every day he wakes up and traders are trying to figure out if he's coming or going," he said.

So is the stock market sell-off over, or just taking a breather?

Take a look at the video to find out how Keith sees the situation, and to get his advice on how to deal with all the Bernanke-induced volatility.

[embed video here]

Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com

And despite what the Fed said last week, here's Why We Won't See the End of QE for a Very Long Time.

To continue reading, please click here…

The Fed

Different Fed Chairman, Same Bad Monetary Policy in 2014

One of these economic alchemists may likely assume the job of Ben Bernanke. If so, pray for us.

Last week, President Obama indicated that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will likely step down in January when his term ends. After taking office in 2006 under then-President George W. Bush, Bernanke has facilitated the greatest economic transfer of wealth from America's grandchildren to banks and foreign nations in the name of sustaining the Keynesian vision of the economic stimulus.

But with Bernanke's departure, it is unclear just who will take the reins of the Federal Reserve, and what policies they will seek to maintain or discard five years after the height of the financial crisis.

Here are the five top contenders that we expect to make Obama's shortlist for next Fed Chairman. And each one of them should give us a great deal of concern due to their commitment to the same tired economic theory and policies that they are convinced will eventually work if we just keep doubling down.

To continue reading, please click here…

The Fed

What's So "Open" About the Federal Open Market Committee?

Don't you just love how some things are named?

Like the Federal Reserve System, for instance. It's a central bank that was conceived in the private study of a private hunting lodge on a private island by a bunch of private bankers who didn't want to use the word "bank" in its name to fool taxpayers who thought it was a "system" to safeguard the public… from the very bankers who conceived it.

I don't know about you, but the feeling of safety I have is just overwhelming… NOT.

Then there's the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). That's a committee of top plotters that meets in private to discuss what's going on in "free" markets so they can figure out how to manipulate them.

The Open Market Committee, or the Old Boys Club (they have a woman on the committee, but she's just a token "dove" who plays "Follow the Beard"), meets today and Wednesday to check on how their manipulations have stopped unruly free markets from sinking the banks that secretly run the Fed (you know it's not a secret, but there are a whole lot of taxpayers who don't).

To continue reading, please click here…

Read More…

The Fed

Bill Gross: Why QE Will End Before the Fed Wants It To

Legendary bond guru Bill Gross doesn't think too highly of the Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke's monetary policies.

"There comes a point when no matter how much blood is being pumped through the system as it is now, with zero-based policy rates and global quantitative easing programs, that the blood itself may become anemic, oxygen-starved, or even leukemic, with white blood cells destroying more productive red cell counterparts," Gross writes in his June investment outlook titled Wounded Heart.

Gross believes that QE, which he describes akin to a bad dose of chemotherapy, will end later this year but not because of a suddenly strengthening economy.

To continue reading, please click here...

The Fed

Do We Really Need the Federal Reserve System?

Abolishing the Federal Reserve System might seem like a drastic idea, but not when you get the full story…

You see, Congress created the U.S. Federal Reserve System to restore public confidence, provide the banking system a source of liquidity that would prevent its collapse and protect the public against inflation.

A century later, the banking system is so big its risks dwarf the Fed's liquidity capacity, and what cost a buck back then now will set you back $21.

That's why we asked Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald to explain how the Federal Reserve System actually helps a country's economy.

Most importantly, we wanted to know if the United States – or any country – even needs the Fed anymore.

Just listen to Fitz-Gerald's answer in the following interview.

The Fed

What You Absolutely Need to Know About Money (Part 6)

Our last chapter was about how the U.S. Federal Reserve was created and why. But it ended with an extreme example of how the universal central banking model works today.

Cyprus.

As another domino threatened the house of cards holding up European banks, more money had to be pumped into Cypriot banks so their doors didn't close and rapid contagion wouldn't implode all of Europe, and then the world.

Only this time was different.

The European Central Bank (ECB) reached straight into Cypriot bank depositors' pockets and stole about $6 billion from them. The "how" isn't important. It's a simple equation, as revealed in Part V. Governments are the backstoppers of central banks; that's where their authority ultimately comes from.

Why did the ECB steal depositors' money? So they could turn around and lend that and more to the insolvent banks to keep them alive. It's the latest twist in the old "extend and pretend" game.

The big question is, how did banks get so big and so dangerous in the first place?

Or, how did stodgy traditional banking morph into "casino banking" on a global scale?

Here's how it started…