Archives for October 2012

October 2012 - Page 17 of 20 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

Pipeline Setback at Novo Nordisk - Analyst Blog

Denmark based Novo Nordisk (NVO) recently announced that it will terminate the development of its phase III hemophilia candidate, vatreptacog alfa. Vatreptacog alfa, a fast-acting recombinant factor VIIa analogue, was being developed for haemophilia patients with inhibitors. The company’s decision followed the analysis of data from a double-blinded, randomized, controlled phase IIIa (adept 2) study. […]

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Clearwire to Launch LTE Later - Analyst Blog

Clearwire Corporation (CLWR), which offers mobile and fixed wireless broadband communication, services to retail and wholesale customers in the U.S. may defer its TDD-LTE 4G network rollout plan as the company will loose Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), another major strategic partner from its board. Major companies like Comcast Corporation, Time Warner Cable Inc. (TWC), Bright House […]

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Breakthrough Research Raises New Reader Questions About the Human Brain

Scientists are deeply fascinated by the human brain – and so are investors.

That's why I wrote this article on September 22 about three new "brain breakthroughs" and how they are changing our view of this complex organ.

And it drew quite a response. Dozens of you reached out to me with questions and comments.

I am always impressed with the quality of observations I get from you readers.

This is a very smart group that is intrigued with the many advances that are changing the world around us every day, even if they're not quite ripe for investment just yet.

Given the volume and caliber of comments, I thought I should take a moment today to respond.

But before I do, I want to thank you once again for your interest. I couldn't possibly succeed in my quest to document this exciting new world without such great support from you.

A few of you shared deeply personal accounts. Thank you for that, too. I'll do my best to address them.

First, here are two great questions from Al about brain disease …

Q: This is all very interesting Michael. I'm a member of the Futurist Society, and I haven't seen them uncover anything like your brain advancement posts. Will diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's be minimized in the not-too-distant future? How far out would you guess that to be? ~ Al

A: Thanks for noting the unique slant that I'm taking here and at the Era of Radical Change. I, too, am a member of the Futurist Society. I follow the group to help me keep abreast of key trends about the future.
As regards the two terrible brain diseases you mentioned, the short answer is yes, we are making a lot of progress on both.

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The Ugly Truth About the Promise of the JOBS Act

Last week I wrote about how the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act (the JOBS Act) can be a pathway to funding brand new businesses as well as small operating companies to further American entrepreneurship and create jobs.

I even called the legislation, signed into law on April 5, 2012, a "light at the end of the tunnel" in terms of its potential to stimulate the economy.

But I also warned you there are elements of the Act that are bad, if not downright ugly.

So, let's take another look at the JOBS Act to see if that light in the tunnel is a freight train headed straight for us.

First, it's instructive to learn that the JOBS Act came into being, not as an original piece of legislation, but as an amalgamation of six House bills, four of which had strong bipartisan support.

What began as a series of bills proposed to facilitate "access to capital" and "capital formation" and incorporated those terms in their former titles, eventually were cobbled together to become the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act, whose title highlighted this year's election mantra: it's about jobs, jobs, jobs.

Too bad there isn't anything in the JOBS Act that says anything about hiring anybody.

The Masquerade Behind the JOBS Act

Some of you might call me cynical for this, but another way to look at what the JOBS Act amounts to is to see it as a deregulatory push masquerading as a job creation scheme.

And therein lies the problem.

It's all well and good to make raising capital easier for startups and small operating businesses, but altogether disquieting to clear that path by weeding out investor protections that have been on the books for decades.

It's like déjà vu all over again.

Why the U.S. Jobs Report Could Be Much Worse than Expected

The September U.S. jobs report, the second to last before Election 2012, is expected to show 110,000 jobs added for the month – but there's a chance it could be much uglier.

First, the weekly initial jobless claims out today (Thursday) increased 4,000 to 367,000 for the week ended Sept. 29. Never a good lead in to a jobs report.

Second, the ADP jobs report released Wednesday showed the private sector added 162,000 jobs in September, less than the 189,000 added in August. ADP's report is often skewed to the upside compared to the government's employment numbers.

Data shows that between April and August, ADP estimated nearly 50,000 more private sector jobs were added per month than the government report (widely viewed as more accurate).

But in August, ADP's number overshot the government's by a hefty 98,000.

Equally disturbing is that the number of jobs being added (according to government figures) is nowhere near what is considered healthy. Just to keep up with population growth, our economy needs to add at least 125,000 jobs every month.

At that pace, it would take at least four more years for the U.S. job market to fully recover from the Great Recession.

"We're not going anywhere quickly in the jobs market," Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody's Analytics, Inc., told Bloomberg News. "The job market is just more of the same. Layoffs aren't the big problem, it's the lack of hiring."

The number of jobs employers added in August was an uninspiring 96,000, a steep decline from July's 141,000.

And while the unemployment rate eked down to 8.1% from 8.3% the previous month, it was for all the wrong reasons.

Many discouraged Americans have given up looking for a job. Plus, more young adults are prolonging their education in attempts to avert entering a very difficult job market.

And with the following factors, 2013 looks to get even worse.

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Bill Gross, the Ring of Fire, and Gold Prices

Thank Bill Gross for adding some muscle this week to the already strong rally for gold prices.

That's because Gross, the Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) founder and co-chief investment officer, released his October 2012 investment outlook Tuesday that came with a warning for the U.S. and investors.

Gross said that U.S. fiscal problems have put the country in a "Ring of Fire" that'll burn investors if they aren't protected by gold and real assets.

Gross warned that recent studies have concluded that "[T]he U.S. balance sheet, its deficit and its "fiscal gap' is in flames and that its fire department is apparently asleep at the station house."

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Facebook Stock Won't be Saved by this "Useless" Idea

Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq: FB) announced today (Thursday) it had finally amassed its one billionth member.

While the company celebrated the landmark number, many analysts simply shrugged it off. So did Facebook stock, which was down about 0.4% by 2 p.m.

As MarketWatch pointed out, "it's great to have one-seventh of the world's population in your network, but Facebook will have to translate that to the bottom line to sustain its upward momentum of late."

Or, as Money Morning wrote a few weeks back, "Congrats on one billion Facebook users… who buy nothing."

Facebook, in order to change that flaw, released a new plan this week to make money off its enormous subscriber base.

But here's why Zuckerberg and team should go back to the drawing board.

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As We Near Fiscal Cliff, Avoid These Vulnerable Stocks

According to a recent study by CEO organization Business Roundtable, major corporations are preparing for the Jan. 2 onslaught of the fiscal cliff.

Unless an accord is reached, the fiscal cliff could lead to negative U.S. economic growth for the first half of 2013 and unemployment soaring to 9.1%, according to research from KBW.

The fiscal cliff will deliver a market-wide impact, but the brunt of vulnerability will be placed on a lot of the same sectors and companies that suffered during the Great Recession.

The good news for many of these stocks is they've all enjoyed good runs this year, delivering healthy returns for investors.

The bad news is that could all change by Jan 2.

Fiscal Cliff Danger Zone: Three Stocks to Avoid

Defense, housing and finance stocks are sure to be clobbered if the fiscal cliff is crossed.

Federal spending is the lifeblood of the defense industry, which will feel the most pain from fiscal cliff spending cuts. Many of these companies do not have the diversity in business operations to survive.

Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) is particularly exposed as it is the nation's largest defense contractor.

Already Lockheed Martin has created fiscal cliff survival plans. According to its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Robert Stevens, Lockheed Martin has slowed down hiring new employees and is prepared to lay off workers.

LMT's share price fell about 50% from September 2008 to February 2009 due to the Great Recession, but the fiscal cliff effect could hit it much harder since defense spending was still strong during the stock's last tumble. Lockheed is up almost 17% this year to over $94, and 50% since 2009.

Editors Note: [ppopup id="70925"]Bypass these risks altogether with this fiscal cliff-proof profit play [/ppopup]

The fiscal cliff spending cuts affecting the defense sector will have a ripple effect into related markets. That includes the Washington, DC housing market which won't be able to continue a recovery if people in the region start losing jobs.

That's why home builder NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR) is in trouble.

Building luxury homes in the Washington, DC area, NVR had to file for bankruptcy back in 1992 due to adverse economic conditions in the mid-Atlantic region at that time.

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Check Out What's Fueling Gains in the Stock Market Today

The stock market today opened higher on mixed labor reports as investors await tomorrow's September jobs report.

The market was also lifted by encouraging comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on the fiscal health of Spain. Speaking at his regular monthly news conference Draghi stated the ECB is ready to buy bonds when necessary and that the ECB will not lower its record low 0.75% refinancing rate.

Here are today's other major stories:

  • Don't expect a great September jobs report– There are a few mixed labor reports to digest a day before last month's unemployment and nonfarm payroll numbers are released. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) yesterday reported the economy added 162,000 private-sector jobs in September. This was better than projections for 140,000 new jobs but much slower than last month's downwardly-revised figure of 189,000 jobs. Investors monitor ADP's numbers for clues on what the government might report, but ADP does not include public sector jobs and is not a great indicator of Friday's Labor Department's report. The Labor Department reported today that 367,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week, slightly higher than expected. The less volatile four-week moving average remained unchanged at 375,000. "The trend is still looking fairly stable. The labor market is improving but it is not really gathering direction for better or worse, it is still just plodding along," 4CAST economist Sean Incremona told Reuters. One more piece of data to look at is layoffs from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. It said U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 33,816 jobs in September, down 71% from a year earlier. On average economists expect tomorrow's report to show 113,000 jobs were added in September and that unemployment ticked back up to 8.2%.
  • Factory orders decline by most in 3 years- The Commerce Department reported that factory orders fell 5.2% in August after rising 2.8% in July. The decline was fueled by a 102% plunge in demand for commercial aircraft which led to a previously reported 13.2% drop in durable goods. Overall the 5.2% decline from a month earlier was expected by economists but continues the trend of a slowdown in manufacturing activity. One positive is that orders for business equipment and software, often considered a gauge of business confidence and investment plans, rose 1.1%. "These data indicate that the recent softness in manufacturing activity and capital spending is likely to continue, at least for several more months," Steven Wood, president of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California, said in a note to clients.

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