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Alcoa Corp

Trading Strategies

How Corporate America Cheats Investors Every Day

An underwhelming earnings season is winding down while stocks struggle. The sell-siders are, bluntly, panicking.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least to find many of you have heard from your advisors over the past few days – advisors with a vested interest in keeping you long the markets (and ensnared in their asset-based fee models).

I'd also bet you're being told "not to worry." I bet you're hearing a lot about companies "flush with cash" and "beating their earnings expectations."

I bet you're being told, despite the obvious signs all around us, that this market is "uniquely solid" and that "the numbers confirm it."

Have I pretty much nailed it word for word?

That's because I'm a hedge fund guy. I know the legal tricks and accounting stunts that keep CEOs and, well, hedge fund guys "well-remunerated."

I'll let you in on another secret: They're lying to you. The market is lying to you, and it's costing you plenty...

Earnings

The Shockingly Tiny Earnings Number That Could Shift the Entire Market

JPMorgan Chase & Co. decisively moved the markets on Friday with its reported record Q1 revenue and earnings; CEO Jamie Dimon's positive economic outlook helped boost not only the stock, but the market in general.

And that's about as good as it got for the big banks… From there, it seemed like no amount of good news – and there was some good news – was enough to pull stocks out of the funk.

Wells Fargo also reported good earnings and a decent outlook, but its volume of loans and deposits were down more than analysts were expecting. WFC shares were up in the Friday pre-market – perhaps on JPMorgan's coattails… and promptly plummeted for the rest of the day.

In Monday pre-market moves, two more of the "Big Six" U.S. banks reported earnings, and it didn't go that well. Goldman Sachs tumbled 3%; earnings beat estimates… but revenue dropped 13% year over year. Citigroup also reported strong earnings and reduced revenue, though it had much less of a drop than Goldman. Citigroup's stock "only" fell 0.5%.

On balance, a dreary, lackluster story… so far.

But that's not the whole story.

Because for all the gloom and reduced expectations - all that - there's a silver lining that I think will pull our hopes for a new leg up out of the fire...

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Today Falls Over 80 Points as White House Escalates Trade Tensions

The Dow Jones today dropped as much as 100 points in premarket trading after Peter Navarro, President Trump's top trade adviser, offered a few harsh words on national trade policy during an interview with CNBC this morning.

In an interview with Squawk Box, Navarro said that the U.S. needed to protect its intellectual property on developing technologies, citing robotics, artificial intelligence, and high-level technology.

Stocks

Here's the Real Impact Trump's Tariffs Will Have on the Best Steel Stocks

Financial markets are reeling after President Trump announced plans to introduce strict tariffs on the importation of aluminum and steal.

However, Wall Street is missing the fact that this kind of trade realignment presents some exciting profit opportunities to investors – especially in the best American steel stocks. In fact, we believe that new steel and aluminum tariff will prove a boon to the American steel market and increase the steel industry's market value…

Read more...

Dow Jones

Dow Jones Today to Test 26,000 Again After Goldman Sachs Tops Estimates

The Dow Jones today is looking to rebound with a 127-point gain in premarket hours. The markets topped 26,000 on Tuesday only to give up a 283-point gain and finish the day lower.

Dow futures are up 104 points this morning with the Federal Reserve in focus today as three members of the central bank prepare to give speeches on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

Now here's a closer look at today's most important market events and stocks, plus Wednesday's economic calendar...

Earnings

How You Can Win This Ugly Earnings "Baseball" Game

If you're a big baseball fan – as I am – then you know that a team's leadoff hitter plays a determinative role in the club's success or failure.

Great leadoff hitters – guys like Rickey Henderson, Richie Ashburn, and Ichiro Suzuki – are terrific "table-setters." As the first hitter to the plate, their job is to "get something started" by getting on base in any way possible – and to serve as an emotional catalyst for the rest of the team… and for the fans in the stadium.

Some of baseball's all-time best leadoff guys were masters at igniting momentum – my favorite old-timer was Eddie Stanky, an infielder and leadoff hitter whose nickname – "The Brat" – reflected his penchant for momentum-swinging plays.

Branch Rickey, the baseball executive who broke the color barrier by signing Jackie Robinson, once took note of Stanky's "spark plug" qualities by observing: "He can't run, he can't hit, and he can't throw. But if there's a way to beat the other team, he'll find it."

In 1951, in a World Series game between the New York Giants and New York Yankees, Stanky (who was then a Giant) tried to steal second base and realized Bronx Bombers shortstop Phil Rizzuto was already waiting to apply the tag. But instead of accepting the out, Stanky (a former soccer player) kicked out with his right foot as he slid and punted the ball out of Rizzuto's mitt and into centerfield.

The Brat popped up and skittered to third. The error lead to five unearned runs and a Giants victory that day.

Rizzuto never forgave Stanky for the play.

So while a walk, hit, or even an occasional homer by the leadoff hitter can ignite a team and even fire up the fans in the stands, the opposite is also true.

And of course a poor showing – like a three-pitch strikeout – by the leadoff hitter can hang over a game like a depressingly thick fog. It has a deleterious effect on the other hitters – and can take the fans right of the game.

And when that happens, things can get downright ugly - as I'll show you right now...