Adecoagro SA’s (AGRO) MACD indicator has moved into bearish territory with a reading of –0.0094. The Zacks #4 Rank (“Sell”) stock decreased more than 2.25% to $8.70 in morning trade. The Zacks Consensus Estimate on the company’s earnings for the year ending December 2012 has decreased by 7 cents over the past two months to […]
Archives for January 2013
January 2013 - Page 15 of 20 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From
An Idiot's Guide to Investing
Let's talk about investing, in human terms and how to consistently make money by being a simpleton.
Everyone loves to complicate things, which is detrimental to your financial health, especially when it comes to investing.
Personally, I think the quest for meaning has something to do with human nature (at least for humans with a modicum of intelligence) and our need to find the meaning in all things.
"What does this mean?"
"What does that mean?"
"What is the meaning of it?"
"Meaning what?"
We just have to know, don't we? Why? Because we think if we understand the meaning of things, then we know. Knowing may be an absolute, but not when it comes to meaning.
Meaning, in the sense we're talking about, isn't knowledge. It's more of an interpretive thing.
And that's the problem with trying to find meaning in everything that moves markets.
Take for example how you interpret the meaning of actions taken by the Federal Reserve, by banks, by Congress and by other investors.
Somehow, we think that if we know the meaning of others' actions we can dig down into some deep base of knowledge and make "more better" informed investment decisions.
Well, here's the rub: While the search for meaning may be worthwhile as an endeavor, especially if you're making long-term, locked-in investment decisions (which is mostly inadvisable , unless you're buying a house), it's more a waste of time and money than you realize.
If you want to make money in the markets, you have to make decisions. There are only two decisions that matter, only two decisions that you have to make, ever.
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Now the Government Wants to Track and Tax Your Mileage
I love Oregon so much I gladly put up with its hypocritical governor, its out of control budget, its quirky liberal tendencies, its high personal income taxes, its hopelessly anti-business environment, and its progressive health care system.
But here's where I have to put my foot down: Oregon officials are now proposing a special per-mile tax on "gas-sipping" drivers.
Frustrated by the drop in tax revenue collected at the pump as drivers shift to more fuel-efficient hybrids and pure electric cars, Oregon legislators now want to make up the difference by sticking it to anyone who's willing to pay more for energy efficiency.
And as bad as that sounds, there's every reason to believe that if this takes hold, a mileage tax will be in the express lane to your neighborhood soon.
Washington's already got a law on the books that will require electric vehicle owners to pay a flat annual fee and is considering an additional per-mile tax. And Nevada is now also looking at a per-mile fee, despite all its gambling revenue.
I don't know about you, but this kind of nonsense makes me want to go out and buy a fire-breathing V8 or fusion-powered DeLorean like Doc Brown drove in the hit movie series Back to the Future just on principle alone to replace my 2006 Prius.
I thought energy efficiency was a national priority.
Welcome To a Place Called Oregon
Then I thought: how silly of me. This is Oregon, where the wisdom of our legislators seems to more closely resemble government at the expense of the people rather than for the benefit of the people.
For example:
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Stocks to Buy: The Biggest Winner in the Apple-Samsung Divorce
There will be winners for investors as a result of the slow-motion split between Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), but the stocks to buy are neither of the warring parties.
Instead, as the tech giants unwind a relationship in which Samsung supplied Apple with billions of dollars' worth of components for its popular iPhones and iPads, the real winners are the suppliers rushing to fill the void.
The once-cozy relationship began to sour a couple of years ago when Samsung began to introduce smartphones and tablets that Apple felt too strongly resembled its own.
Shortly afterward, Apple began filing patent lawsuits. Samsung countersued. The fight grew into a global war, with 50 separate patent suits in 10 countries spread over four continents.
The relationship grew frostier in 2011 as Samsung became the dominant vendor of smartphones based on Google Inc.'s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android operating system and started taking market share from the iPhone.
In 2012, Apple started shifting more and more component purchases to other suppliers, a process that has accelerated in recent months.
Samsung's invoices to Apple have included memory chips, batteries and display screens in addition to the manufacture of Apple-designed processor chips found in the iPhone and iPad.
Samsung, in fact, provided 26% of the component costs of the iPhone 4, so there's plenty of new money suddenly available at the Apple trough.
Let's take a look at some stocks to buy as a result of the Apple-Samsung divorce.
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U.S. Debt Ceiling: Here's What Washington Could Do
The United States hit the $16.4 trillion debt ceiling on Dec. 31, 2012. Thanks to some creative financial maneuvers, dubbed "extraordinary measures," the government is running on $200 billion in emergency funding, provided by the Treasury Department.
Congress, which sets the debt limit and can approve more borrowing as needed, is in the midst of debating whether or not to raise the limit. Failing to do so means the government will default on its obligations. The result would be nothing short of disastrous.
With only weeks left before the "emergency funding" runs out, the whole country is weighing in on what could and should be done. Following are three options Washington could choose.
Three Possible Outcomes in U.S. Debt Ceiling Debate
Investing in Silver: The Most Popular Plays for 2013
Investing in silver has so far been one of the most popular moves of 2013.
Jan. 7, the first day of sales for the new 2013 American Silver Eagle bullion coins, saw a record number of coins sold, totaling 3,937,000. That fresh tally of 99.9% pure silver Eagles puts January 2013 as the fifth strongest month for the popular American Silver Eagles since its launch in 1986.
Early release and newly-dated bullion coins have always been hot items. But this year's impressive sales numbers were particularly robust due to the fact that the U.S. Mint's inventory of 2012-dated Silver Eagles sold out on Dec.19, leaving its network of Authorized Purchasers' vaults empty for three weeks until the new Eagles debuted this year.
Demand for Silver Eagles has soared in recent years. The 2012 Eagles were set to log the second best annual total until the unforeseen sell out. Annual sales for last year reached 33,742,500 coins, good for the third-highest total.
Holding the top spot is 2011, with sales of 39,868,500. Second is 2010, with 34,662,500 coins sold.
Adding to the buying frenzy in the past couple months is silver's spot price, which many deem a bargain.
From 2001 to 2010, silver prices gained a tepid $4.37 to $20.19. In late April 2011, silver surged, peaking at $49.76. Currently, the white metal is trading around $30.80 an ounce, but could climb to $50 an ounce in 2013.
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Is Harry Dent's Stock Market Crash Prediction as Crazy as it Seems?
Economic forecaster Harry Dent just made another dire prediction, and investors should hope he's wrong.
Dent, bestselling author and financial newsletter writer, told CNBC Tuesday that he sees a stock market crash in the United States starting in the third quarter of 2013 and continuing for a year and a half.
Dent said real estate prices and stocks would plummet more than 60% by the end of 2014, or sooner, meaning the Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall below 6,000. He also said the United States would be close to bankruptcy by then.
Dent cited U.S. demographic shifts and the nation's debt crisis as the main drivers of a crash. He said had it not been for the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent moves to stimulate the economy, the stock market would already have collapsed.
"We call this the economy in a coma," he said. "Basically, without these trillions of dollars of stimulus, we would be in a downturn, in a depression, because we also have $42 trillion in private debt, the greatest debt bubble in history, and that needs to unwind."
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Buy Sell or Hold: Will Ford Outperform the Market In 2013?
As the only American car company not to receive a bailout, many investors are wondering if now is the time to buy Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F)
Clearly, there's a lot to like. For one thing, Ford stock is up over 20% since Dec. 1.
For another, Ford's restyled car lineup now appeals to a much broader group of new customers well outside the "big truck" world.
So has Ford finally turned the corner?…
Let's take a look under the hood, starting with sales here at home.
North America Leads the Way
Ford's home turf is North America so it should come as no surprise that the region is the company's most profitable. It also shouldn't be a stretch to understand why Ford's F-Series truck is the No. 1 selling automobile in North America.
In all, the F-Series accounted for nearly 650,000 units sold in 2012 representing a 10.3% increase from 2011. This is the third straight year of annual increases, making 2012 the best sales year for truck sales since 2007.
Just Released: The 2013 Forecast in One Chart
Each January, we release the Money Morning forecast for the year. It predicts the market action for the next 12 months.
It's built on a system that Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald spent over 10 years perfecting. He calls it the "Geiger Index."
Based on "fractal theory," it's similar to models used to predict hurricanes, interpret digital satellite data and even avert cyber attacks. It works by looking for patterns so complex they are beyond traditional analytics. The amount of raw data this program crunches is extremely large. In fact, it takes a series of computer servers 14 hours to produce a forecast for the next 12 months. Keith's system is also highly accurate. Since inception four years ago, the Geiger Index has achieved a remarkable 93% success rate.
I've put together the entire projection in one simple chart along with Keith's key takeaways for the year below.
To get Keith's key takeaways for the year, .
In 2013, Resolve to Follow the Money
During these first days of January, many adopt an "out with the old, in with the new," approach to shed bad habits or extra pounds.
Washington opted for its same ol' strategy when averting the "fiscal cliff," as the addictive nature of "can-kicking is a transatlantic sport," according to The Economist.
The magazine suggests that the deal made in the 11th hour is "disturbingly similar to the eurozone's." The short-term fix did "nothing to control the unsustainable path of "entitlement' spending on pensions and health care … nothing to rationalize America's hideously complex and distorted tax code… and virtually nothing to close America's big structural budget deficit."
In the end, politicians agreed to end the payroll tax cut and raise taxes on the top earners; altogether, tax increases will total $162 billion in 2013.
According to a Bloomberg article, it's the first time since 1990 a Republican leader agreed to a boost on tax rates. The legislation also represents the largest tax increase in two decades, says the Wall Street Journal.
One negative consequence resulting from the new bill is an immediate hit to Americans' spending cash.
Avoiding the “fiscal cliff” initially calmed the market, with equities and gold beginning to rally before the ink was dry. Here’s why.
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